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Asymmetric Intelligence

artificial intelligence

  1. What is Apple's Investment Narrative?

    Nota Bene

    Some say it's "Cosmic Orange".

    To own Apple today, you need to believe its ecosystem can keep deepening even as growth expectations are already high and the stock trades on a premium multiple. The latest quarter’s US$143.76 billion in revenue and US$42.10 billion in net income, powered by iPhone 17 demand and a rebound in China, reinforce that story, while expanding AI features and services aim to make each device more valuable over time. The upcoming low cost MacBook fits neatly into this, extending macOS and Apple Intelligence to more price sensitive users without changing the core near term catalysts, which still sit around iPhone 17 uptake, AI rollouts and services momentum. Key risks feel more about execution and sentiment: memory cost pressures, high expectations baked into the price and any cooling of AI enthusiasm..

    Source: Simply Wall St. via Finance.yahoo.

    NB: Another money quote: "An interesting angle is how design-led appeal in China, such as the viral “Cosmic Orange” iPhone 17, combined with new AI features across devices is reinforcing Apple’s ecosystem pull for both consumers and developers."

    I tried but failed to connect how Cosmic orange is reinforcing Apple's ecosystem pull for consumers and especially developers.

  2. Strong iPhone sales expected to power record Christmas quarter for Apple

    Nota Bene

    Apple is set to report its strongest iPhone sales growth in four years on Thursday - and likely the company's best quarterly revenue to date…

    Strong iPhone sales expected to power record Christmas quarter for Apple appeared first on MacDailyNews.

    In China and developing markets, Apple drew customers with the refreshed camera design and higher storage capacity of the latest Pro devices.

    The company led the global smartphone market last year with a 20% share, according to research firm Counterpoint, up from 18% in 2024.

    Overall, Apple is expected to report that iPhone sales rose 13.8% in its October-December fiscal first quarter, according to analysts polled by LSEG. That would mark the strongest growth in more than four years.

    Total revenue likely increased 11.4% to a record $138.43 billion, aided by a 14.1% jump in Apple’s the services business.

    In Greater China, sales likely jumped about 15%, according to Visible Alpha data.

    Some investors believe Apple can make money from AI without the massive infrastructure investments pledged by its Big Tech rivals.

    “Apple can probably generate a positive return on very little AI investment, thanks to its distribution,” said Gerrit Smit, manager of the Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity fund, which holds Apple stock.

    Read the original article →

    NB

    My estimate is 14% growth in iPhone revenues. 14% growth in Services and $139 Billion revenues. Not a big difference to this poll.

  3. A columnist fed years of Apple Watch health data to ChatGPT — with disastrous results

    Nota Bene

    A tech columnist finds the Apple Health ChatGPT integration raises major red flags after feeding the AI bot a decade of Apple Watch data.

    ChatGPT launched its ability to integrate Apple Health data on January 7, 2026. So Fowler connected ChatGPT Health to 29 million steps and 6 million heartbeat measurements stored in his Apple Health app, then asked the bot to evaluate his cardiac health. The results alarmed Fowler: ChatGPT gave him an F grade. Panicked, he went for a run and sent the report to his actual doctor.

    His doctor’s response? “No,” Fowler wasn’t failing. In fact, his heart attack risk was so low that insurance likely wouldn’t cover additional testing to prove the AI wrong.

    “The more I used ChatGPT Health, the worse things got,” Fowler wrote.

    Read the original article →

    NB:

    LLMs don't make good doctors. In fact they are quite dangerous. An opportunity for Apple to expound on its descriptive vs. prescriptive approach to health data.

  4. Morgan Stanley resets Apple stock forecast ahead of earnings - thestreet.com

    Nota Bene

    Consensus estimates Apple to post about $138.4 billion in revenue and both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of around $2.67 for the December quarter. The numbers highlight at least an 11% year-over-year growth in EPS and revenue, but analysts are now tightening their margin forecasts despite favourable iPhone sales and AI roadmap.

    In a note, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring reiterated an Overweight rating and an unchanged price target of $315, but cautioned investors that Apple stock could “trade sideways to modestly lower after earnings.”

    The firm expects Apple to beat expectations, driven by stronger, more persistent iPhone demand. Woodring expects December-quarter revenue of about $80 billion, around 4% above consensus, and March-quarter revenue of $55.4 billion, about 8% above consensus, citing supply-chain checks and shipment data.

    He said iPhone 17’s “strength remains underappreciated by the Street.”

    Morgan Stanley sees cost assumptions as overly optimistic. The firm forecasts March-quarter operating expenses about 7% above consensus and a gross margin forecast 30 basis points below consensus, driven by rising memory costs.

    As a result, Woodring sees limited scope for positive EPS revisions for Apple, even with a revenue beat.

    Morgan Stanley also flagged potential downside risk to June quarter earnings, estimating EPS of $1.62 versus the consensus of $1.71, citing intensifying memory-related cost pressures. The firm also notes that Apple has historically underperformed the S&P 500 more in Q1 than in any other period.

    Looking ahead to 2026

    All things considered, Morgan Stanley believes Apple is positioned to outperform in 2026 as a wave of new products and AI-driven catalysts is set to shape the company’s growth trajectory. The firm particularly highlighted the relaunch of Siri in February and Apple Intelligence in June at Apple’s Worldwide Developers’ Conference (WWDC).
    Some notable introductions expected include its most “innovative iPhone in 10+ years (Foldable)“, plus the first smartphone powered by 2-nanometer chips, part of the iPhone 18 family.

    The firm sees greater benefits from share gains and higher average selling prices, with Morgan Stanley underscoring an EPS of $9.77 for FY2027, roughly 7% above Wall Street consensus.

    Read the original article →

    Our Take

    Earnings will be above consensus. All eyes will be on how margin guidance due to pressure from memory pricing. Every year it's another thing that is cause for drama. It never matters.

  5. Thoughts and Prayers

    Research

    It’s not unusual to see articles consisting of lists of reasons why Apple is facing an existential crisis. Agonizing and hand-wringing about Apple been a meme for decades, so much so that it had its own web site, The Apple Death Knell counter and the "Pray" for Apple imagery was a thing since the 90s. The original article from June 1997 offered 101 tips on saving the company starting with outsourcing hardware or scrapping it entirely.

    Image (media.wired.com)

    Although the imminence of death has always been persistent, what’s changed over the years were the causes. There are far too many to recall or enumerate but I have through personal recollection and pattern recognition grouped them roughly into three categories:

    1. Irrelevance due to low market share, i.e. insufficient network effects for its platforms which will eventually drive users away. This is fundamentally a size problem.
    2. Insufficiency in capital/resources/talent/management. This includes the death of Steve Jobs, the departure of various other managers and historically the low spending on R&D. This is more qualitative but still fundamentally a problem of being too weak.
    3. Externalities including but not limited to: law suits, regulations, taxes, technology standards. This includes everything from the absence of the Beatles in the iTunes store to confiscation of assets or extortion by governments. Extreme versions are antitrust cases alleging monopoly status. This is a problem of being too big or too strong. (Contrast with the first two categories)

    For instance, during the last Apple Investor Event, I highlighted a typical article citing a list of problems for Apple. It was Titled “5 problems facing Apple it won’t talk about at is April event”. Published in August 2024 it cited the following:

    1. Maintaining profitability. Citing a drop in operating margins in 2020(!) the problem was stated as a need to maintain momentum.
    2. Antitrust regulation. Citing EU and US investigations against Apple and other Big Tech companies. Money quote: “reports have surfaced that several tech companies in China are actively testing ways to circumvent Apple’s new privacy update”).
    3. Lawsuits in general, Epic trial in particular.
    4. A lack of diversity in the management team. Essentially, insufficient DEI.
    5. Competition. Google, Blackberry, Dell, Fujitsu, Microsoft and Samsung are cited.

    When I read this I thought it must have been AI generated (hallucinated more likely). The dates did not make sense (August publication predicting an April event) and the competition cited was obsolete (Blackberry? Fujitsu?). It was a random list of Apple news framed as problems. Rather than try to refute them, I realized that it did not matter. The objective of the author was not to illuminate but to discharge something, anything, as long as it was negative.

    Since last August a lot has happened. A new US administration, a new set of problems. Judging by the share price and news flow, Apple bashing is once again in vogue. (Incidentally, the stock price reached an all-time-high in December 2024 at nearly $260/share, a substantial increase from $170 or so six months earlier.) Today everyone and their editor is jumping into the scrum writing lists of Apple problems.

    The pattern however seems a bit different this time. Almost all the catastrophes Apple has are externalities. Let’s try to enumerate them (inspired by Bloomberg.)

    1. Tariffs. Consequences include presumably negative impact to company’s operations, product development and device prices.
    2. Antitrust. A US Department of Justice lawsuit for allegedly anticompetitive practices. Similar actions by the European Union, South Korea, Japan, India, etc.
    3. Lawsuits. Apple must stop taking a commission on in-app purchases and subscriptions paid via the web. Epic again.
    4. Distribution deals (Google antitrust). The threat of losing a $20 billion-a-year deal with Google for default search placement.
    5. AI delays: the risk of falling even further behind its tech peers
    6. Competition in China.

    What these examples seem to share is that, except for the AI execution, they are externalities and thus of the third category. They are therefore problems related to being too successful.

    Tariffs are a problem because Apple relies on massive scale and thus requires integrated production which creates concentration in production centers which are difficult to redeploy. Antitrust is a problem because Apple is too big and thus dominates developer distribution. Lawsuits center on having too much control—related to antitrust. Google antitrust remedy forces a decline in distribution revenue for browser search—a predicament coming about Apple’s enormous leverage vis-a-vis Google. Being so big means there is only one way to go: down, hence Chinese competitors gaining share. Lastly, AI execution problem is more Category 2 problem but would not be an issue if Apple did not insist on Privacy for its customers, something which caused much of its success with customers that it got too big.

    Incidentally, profitability is now higher than ever, top line growth is consistent, bottom-line growth is even faster, the company is guiding growth in-line with current trajectory, the number of customers is at a new record, churn into the platforms continues, Apple is winning against non-consumption, capital is pouring into shareholder pockets and R&D spending is soaring. Cue the charts.

    What the casual observer might note missing from the Doomed listicles is any mention of customer satisfaction, loyalty, acquisition and retention. The things the company actually talks about on earnings conference calls.

    Do these externalities of tariffs, antitrust remedies, distribution dissatisfaction and non-iOS competition make any impact on how customers perceive the company?

    We'll discuss this in the next few posts, as the lead up to presentations at ACTIVE: The Apple Investor Conference on Tuesday June 10th, the day after the WWDC25 keynote.

  6. The Trillion Dollar Question Nobody is Asking

    Conference

    Apple Investors are keen observers of metrics of financial performance. We have to track top line, bottom line and many lines in between. Updates to the data are delivered every quarter through official documents such as the 10K and statements made in conference calls. These data are then analyzed and opinions are formed on the viability, sustainability, and prospects for the company.

    The community of investors changes rapidly, with shareholders able to enter and exit with a click of a button. All it takes is capital. Therefore many critics of shareholders as stakeholders point out how fleeting the commitment can be. Though there is skin in the game in the form of committed capital, there is no requirement for staying committed.

    This is not the case for another set of stakeholders. In a previous post I pointed out how important employees are to the company and my belief that their commitment is probably management’s greatest concern.

    But if one were to sum up the total population of a stakeholder group multiplied by its required level of commitment, there is a case to be made that the most vested community is that of Apple’s developers.

    This group numbering in the millions makes an enormous contribution to the prosperity of the company and indeed of the other stakeholders. And they do so through tremendous personal risk. If you are a developer you know this, but perhaps other stakeholders do not. So let me elaborate.

    An Apple developer must spend years becoming versed in the developer tools, purchase membership and equipment, navigate getting their software accepted and hope that someone, anyone buys the result. Afterwards, they need to maintain the code and update it frequently as the underlying software and hardware changes.

    This adds up to enormous personal opportunity costs. Developing means not doing something else and developing for Apple means (typically) not developing for some other platform.

    The benefits can be significant however. Apple publishes the amounts paid to developers. That is part of the graph shown below.

    The dark blue area shown as “App Store Billings” includes about 70% paid to developers which I would estimate at about 100 billion in 2023. 

    But these are direct payments based on App Store transactions. A great number of transactions and economic activity takes place outside the App Store. That is over $1.1 trillion in 2023. It should grow to over $1.3 trillion this year. 

    And then there is AI. As Ben Bajarin and I discussed recently, the integration of AI is shifting the risk/reward equation for developers to include capital spending or monetization of computation itself. 

    A lot is at stake. Not only in terms of upside but also downside. Developers need to understand the “state of the union” for Apple as a platform and ecosystem from a financial point of view. Conversely, investors need to understand the degree of dependence and commitment being made by the developers. 

    There has been no forum for this to happen. Until now. 

    At the first Apple Worldwide Investor Conference ( WWIC ), we will bring together individuals with a stake in Apple's future—investors, analysts, and developers—to foster a meaningful conversation about Apple's ecosystem, and a better understanding of Apple as a business.

    The event will take place on September 19th, in-person in Boston with limited seating, and via remote livestream globally, where you can watch, ask questions, and discuss, live.

    Apple Worldwide Investor Conference - WWIC 24 - September 19, 2024

    Tickets are available now. Asymco followers can get an additional discount using code asc24.

    See you at WWIC—in person or online!

  7. Happy Apple Labor Day

    Research

    It’s Labor Day in the US (and Canada, though not anywhere else where it’s celebrated on May 1st.) This would be a good time to discuss Apple’s primary challenge. 

    Writers whose unfortunate job is to cover Apple inevitably put forward lists of “challenges” faced by the company. It really is not possible to write or speak about Apple without manufacturing one’s own list of problems, obstacles, difficulties, rising competition, inevitable transitions, strategic failures, and the lack of innovation.

    For instance, as recently as a week ago, in an article announcing the change in CFO, a pundit noted that “[the new CFO] Parekh's main challenge will be navigating ongoing antitrust lawsuits. ‘These are challenging times for Apple on multiple fronts’, citing increased regulation, EU scrutiny, and growing competition in China.” Challenging times for Apple. Surely not like previous times which were not challenging at all.

    I Googled “challenges facing Apple” and top hit was a list from CNN dated January 25, 2024. The tag line "It’s only a few weeks into 2024, and Apple’s year ahead is paved with trouble.” A discussion of its doom in China is followed by an Apple Watch ban challenging Apple “reputation”. Surprisingly, being behind on genAI and the existential crisis AI will bring only showed up third. Then came “revenue concerns” because of reasons and finally, being a regulatory target around the world rounded out the top five.

    Clearly, repeating this exercise every few weeks would allow an entirely new list to be created with a completely fresh dose of dread. As the previous list fades in memory a reminder on your iPhone should get the list generation started on time. [AI only makes this easier.]

    But what none of these lists seem to include is what I consider to be Apple’s primary worry. I believe this is the one thing that keeps Tim Cook awake at night. This being the preservation of employee morale. 

    As evidenced by what I get as questions and what is enumerated endlessly, what most people don’t understand is that Apple is exceptional because of the combination of culture and talent and not the particular circumstances it finds itself in. Listicles of circumstances are easy to generate but a good management system is resilient to circumstances and indeed anticipates them or makes their own. The thing that Steve Jobs built was a mechanism that converts the talent and dedication of great people into product that is genuinely adored by the people who use it. That mechanism is beyond a set of rules. It’s culture. 

    “Build” culture sounds far too vague and simplistic, but the reality in almost all other (large) organizations is that almost all talent is wasted. That primary asset, its employees, is perhaps less than 10% applied to the benefit of users. Much of it is wasted in politics, frictions, pointless disagreements, burning out, and what I call “creative inefficiency”. If Apple could just waste only 60% of its employees’ contributions it would be four times better than average and probably be the most effective company in the world.

    Culture is what makes the application of talent effective and efficient. It is the magic sauce. And losing that culture would be the greatest existential threat to the company.

    So on Labor Day our reflection should be on how to keep what is now a very, very large organization meaningful to each and every employee. The CEO’s efforts should be prioritized on customers first but employees second (and shareholders at best, third). This means inducing employees to be creative and productive and keeping them in that state of “flow" for the duration of their employment. For top management it’s even necessary to keep their loyalty and dedication *after* their employment ends.

    The methods vary and are some of the most secretive aspects of Apple. As I said many years ago, many want to copy Apple’s products but few want to copy being Apple. That is mostly because few even know what Apple is and how it works. Having said that, I would like to put forward some observations on “the Apple way” of management.

    1. Provide incentives for employees to stay in the same functions as long as they continue to improve their skills. This means focusing on becoming better at their craft rather than “grooming” them for climbing the corporate ladder. 

    2. Preserve a functional organization. Obviously this means avoiding market-driven or matrix org structures.

    3. Tap individuals to become managers only if they exhibit management skill. This is far harder than it seems. Few highly talented individuals in a particular area of expertise want to give up practicing in order to become a general manager. 

    4. Avoid political in-fighting by maintaining separations between functions and deciding budget allocations through a centralized process. This avoids “empire building” (and its corollary of back-stabbing) through budget and headcount accumulation. 

    5. Top management should be deeply aware of all aspects of the business. This means keeping the business fairly narrow, with a short list of products and services. Narrow focus needs to be coupled with a wide base of applications. In other words, pick products and services which have broad appeal but keep their number low.

    If you read this correctly, you will note how diametrically opposed this is to the modus operandi of corporate entities. It really is asymmetrical to how management is practiced and that leads to an outsized competitive advantage for Apple.

    We'll be exploring this topic further as part of a broader examination of the regulatory impact on Apple at WWIC on Sept 19th. Hope to see you there.

    → WWIC - Apple Worldwide Investor Conference, Sept 9, Livestream worldwide