We discuss the zeitgeist of automotive decline.
We marvel – again – at the industry’s glacial pace of change and contrast the auto industry’s tiny volumes to smartphones and personal computers.
via Asymcar 12: Cycle Times | Asymcar.
The orthodox vs. the unorthodox: Tata, Tesla and Toyota. Why might an asymmetric competitor lose and a symmetric competitor win?
We begin with Tesla and Apple. We continue with aluminum vehicles and re-visit information asymmetry as Horace exploits it to buy a Mercedes on eBay.
We talk about car APIs (Aux input jack and ODBII) and much, much more.
A brief discussion considers the perils of endless line extension up and down the market, perhaps fueled by financialization.
This is a good one.
Horace and Jim discuss shopping online for used cars and how and why the value of cars disappears so quickly. The conversation drifts into information asymmetry, the declining interest in auto maintenance and the perpetual closed-loop auto information model. We hypothesize on the impact of the coming self-monitoring and awareness of the lives of vehicles. Finally we ask whether the dysfunction in the industry is the cause or the effect of the ancient integrated factory model and the sustaining auto eco-system incentives that impede transformation.
Asymcar 9. Stasis: Depreciation, Brands, Information Intransigence | Asymcar.
In this episode we move beyond just talking about our pet theories of automotive disruption and interview someone who is doing something about it.
Asymcar 8: The EcoV | Asymcar.
If you want to know more about Toyota's secret sauce, why GM could not make an electric vehicle and how decisions are made in the auto industry then you should listen.
The Transportationist, David Levinson @trnsprttnst joins us to discuss the technical, human, environmental and economic factors driving change to the auto-ecosystem.David helps us smartly survey the landscape via:
Asymcar 6: Peak Horse | Asymcar.
Steve Crandall brings a new perspective as a guest. Steve’s analysis of complex systems has given him a huge pool of wisdom into which we dip our dainty spoons.
We survey the interlopers seeking to replace many jobs that cars have traditionally done, from horses to bicycles, planes, trains and buses.
We dive deeper into a few earlier Asymcar topics including energy, regulation, infrastructure, power train evolution, societal changes, distribution networks, urbanization and consider the promise of electric bicycles.
Several innovation timing lessons temper our expectations for immediate improvements.
Finally, we revisit the emerging transportation information layers and how such services may change public behavior and the auto-ecosystem.
Asymcar 6: Peak Horse | Asymcar.
(Honorable mention to anyone who can identify the vehicle shown above.)
Of Phaetons, Coupés, Shooting Brakes, Broughams, Hackneys, Cabriolets, Landaus and Limousines. Horace and Jim step back in time to revisit the raison d’être for carriages and the emerging “horseless” carriage. We explore how evolution rather than revolution of networks influenced the technologies of transportation.
The question of foothold markets comes up and we explore which jobs-to-be-done affected early car design. The leap from these early jobs to the modern segmentation of the market is observed through the contrast between Henry Ford’s approach to the then agrarian market compared with Alfred Sloan’s portfolio strategy at General Motors.
The discussion morphs into a brief infrastructure review where the development of roads is compared to today’s telco operator business and regulatory models.
Finally, Horace and Jim drift into insurance and discuss the risk pooling implications of driverless cars.
Asymcar 4: Death of a salesman | Asymcar.
Are cars sold or purchased? Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer discuss automotive “ecosystems” vis-à-vis Apple and Tesla’s direct sales model. We further dive into the rigidity and risk of such value chains and divert a bit into automakers' attempts at aviation. Finally, we consider the potential monetization of automotive metadata and what that might mean for new, perhaps “over the top” style entrants.
Also history lessons: Ford Trimotor, Ford production system, The Kaiser people’s car.
Horace Dediu and Jim Zellmer discuss the pleasures of traversing continents by road. This leads to a grand tour of powertrains, composites, fuel efficiency, regulation and Tesla’s luxury market entry. Which naturally leads to a conversation on emerging auto modularization, apps and ecosystems and where value will accrue.
If Apple can have a hobby then so can Asymco.
Jim Zellmer and I were having fun talking about cars and thought why not record our conversations and put them up for others to listen. That's how Asymcar got started.
Besides having fun, what we plan to do is use the auto industry as a lens to understand how disruption works. Whereas Asymco is a narrative on an industry that is dynamic because of disruption, we hope to make Asymcar a narrative on an industry that isn't dynamic because of a lack of disruption. A sort of foil to Asymco (or maybe an Asymco Bizarro.)
The approach is to use stories that everyone can understand whether you care about cars or not. The inspiration was the TV program Top Gear which satirizes the adolescence of the male mind, and thus appeals to all. With Asymcar we hope to bring a rich set of new metaphors to describe similarly curious phenomena.
Check out the first Podcast: Tubular exoskeleton-type thing
