Analysts predict iPad sales (part IV)
by Horace Dediu
So far Apple has sold 7.458 million iPads and there is still a quarter remaining in the calendar year. The highest forecast immediately after the launch of the product was 7 million.
For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first 12 months of sales).
All analysts polled grossly underestimated the iPad. My impression is that competitors are still in denial.
How many iPads will Apple sell? - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech.
| Unit sales 2010 (millions) | 2011 | ||
| Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech | 7.0 | 13.0 | Calendar |
| David Bailey, Goldman Sachs | 6.2 | 10.1 | Calendar |
| Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley | 6.0 | 9.0 | Calendar |
| Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. | 5.0 | 10.0 | 12 mos. |
| Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray | 3.5 | 8.0 | Calendar |
| Ben Reitzes, Barclay's Capital | 2.9 | 7.3 | Fiscal |
| Keith Bachman, BMO Capital | 2.5 | 5.5 | Fiscal |
| Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna | 2.1 | 3.8 | Calendar |
| Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank | 2.0 | 4.0 | Calendar |
| Bill Shope, Credit Suisse | 1.8 | 7.4 | Fiscal |
| Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch | 1.2 | 3.7 | Fiscal |
| Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams | 1.2 | 3.5 | Fiscal |
| Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel | 1.1 | 6.8 | Fiscal |
| Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer | 1.1 | 4.0 | Fiscal |
8 comments
Vikram ·
It's sort of ridiculous that there are analysts who suggest that iPad "missed" expectations of 5M plus in the second quarter of sales when everyone missed the first year of sales. 4.2M sales of the iPad when there are supply constraints mean absolutely boffo numbers when the restrictions ease and when the iPad2 with more functionality and refinements come out.
I'm reading that the Acer chairman is still in denial about what the iPad actually is and what it actually doing.
RattyUK ·
I've been banging this gong for a while now Horace. No one on PED's Jan 28th list got the iPad. And as each new number has been hit I've been checking this list to see who's been naughty and nice. Well they are all off by a huge factor. The iPad has grown far faster than any product launch Apple have had and yet somehow everyone managed to spin the 4 million + sales as a lose. Well it got some cheap share prices for a bit...
MattF ·
There has simply never been a gizmo that has taken off as fast as the iPad, so any sales prediction is new territory for analysts-- my own view, fwiw, is that given supply constraints and the "wait for version 2.1" rule, the iPad sales numbers are about as large as possible.
timnash ·
Analysts fail to look at the number of people who like touch on the iPhone and iPod Touch. As I suggested in a February article http://lowendmac.com/nash/10tn/100-million-device... it would only take 8% to 10% of current and expected users, of those devices, to prefer touch to a mouse and keyboard and Apple would see 8-10 million iPad sales in 2010. Even that estimate will be low.
I suspect there is a correlation between iPad sales and the sales of those 2 devices. Over to you Horace?
asymco ·
You can certainly index iPad to iPhone iPod growth. My method is even simpler. I assume production constraint and try to guess how many they can produce. The challenge for Apple is that every year they need to ramp down one model and ramp up another. That's the real cap on growth: the rapid upgrade cycle. It means they get two good quarters out of the year for maximum throughput. We need to watch whether for the iPad they engineered a different cycle than for the iPod/iPhone. If not, I suspect they can sustain 100% to 150% growth y/y. First year is the baseline and we don't have it yet.
Marcos El Malo ·
"My method is even simpler. I assume production constraint and try to guess how many they can produce."
It's funny because it's true!
Iosweekly ·
Cheap? Apples stock is still hovering just under it's all time high. It's only option and margin traders that are upset at apples "drop" in share price post earnings. Just a few months ago apple was at $240 a share after all. From a non traders perspective I would say wall streets opinion of apple is super positive.
It's still massively undervalued though in my opinion.
asymco ·
You can't have a positive opinion of Apple and have it massively undervalued at the same time. The market has spoken: they don't think very much of Apple's potential. It's discounted to the S&P 500 meaning there is more faith in the potential growth of an average large company than in the growth of Apple.
More about this when I re-visit Apple's horrifically low P/E next week.