Here's why demand for Macs has spiked
by Horace Dediu
Personal AI
"OpenClaw [is] driving Mac lead times to multi-year highs." — Analyst Erik Woodring
As of Thursday, February 19th, lead times across most Mac products have quickly inflected to multi-year highs, around 2-4 weeks in the US (Exhibit 58), with lead times for Mac Studio the longest (27 days) followed by MacBook Pro M4 (23 days) and Mac Mini (19 days).
Source: Morgan Stanley via Apple 3.0
NB: It's not just the Mac Mini that is seeing a spike in sales...
NB: Sign up for Apple 3.0 to read full quote. It's not just the Mac Mini that is seeing a spike in sales. The Studio inventory is even more drawn down. While Nvidia chips are super popular for data centers expect A and M series chips to become the engines for agentic AI and on-device AI to be a consumer demand driver.
Computation tends to get personal. For each generation of computation, there is an initial period of concentration (mainframe, web services, AI) followed by a period of decentralization (PC, device, Personal AI).
Many assume that once created, a centralized solution is a permanent configuration but it never is. Computing abhors centralization.
3 comments
FredHS ·
And the models that seem most in demand are high-end, with very high memory and storage upgrade options. Just my guess, developers may wish to buy now in case memory prices go up.
FredHS ·
Yes, 'abhors centralization'.
In each 'thick' client device category, Apple wins, iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPod, and even AirTags. The Mac continues to gain share, dramatically, when compared to 25 years.
Note: Thin client fat server comes from Oracle 1993.
Sacto Joe ·
Hi, Fred! I was going through past stories and saw your comments.
I have recently begun upgrading Donna’s and my Macs, in no small measure because the latest systems have seriously degraded our ability to get work done.
Sadly, I see that as a real factor in forcing these new purchases. At bottom, it is more and more essential to upgrade security, but to do that you have to upgrade your systems, which in turn lose functionality due to the increased complexity of the new systems. I thoroughly expect the move to AI to continue this increasing complexity.
And sadly, that may leave some folks struggling to afford these upgrades.
IMO, Apple needs to consider looking at developing and maintaining two systems: One for newer computers and one for older computers. And they may need to develop three systems; one for Macs and one for iOS, the main difference being an older system with constant security updates only.