Asymco Bulletin 009 - Apr 19, 2026
by Horace Dediu
Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Apr 19, 2026.
Research
Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026
Revenues and growth rates for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, plus Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Expense, Other Income and Expense, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a comparison to CFO guidance.
Ref. conference call's guidance, Kevan Parekh, Apple CFO: As we move ahead into March, I would like to review our outlook, […]. We expect our March total company revenue to grow by 13% to 16% year over year, which comprehends our best estimates of constrained iPhone supply during the quarter. We expect services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate similar to what we reported in December. We expect →
The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds
In a recent interview Apple management was asked about AI, which is perceived as an area where Apple has been struggling. Greg Joswiak replied: We’ve been doing things with intelligence for many years, right? And gen AI allows us an opportunity to do that even more. So I’m excited about that, but boy, this is not a sprint. This is a marathon.
In contrast to AI, Spatial Computing is being largely ignored. It is however making significant leaps in utilization, especially in verticals. →
Nota Bene
Monday Notes: Neo still sinking in →
Apple's potential to double its Mac user base through strategic budget expansion and memory supply tactics presents a promising growth trajectory.
260 million Mac users? Huge room for growth.
Two analysts, two stories. The Neo will move the needle and the supply crunch will hamper competition…
Nevertheless, a doubling of the Mac user base is certainly a worthy and achievable goal over the next decade. →
Apple Studio Display XDR Now Cleared for Diagnostic Radiology →
At just $3,000, the Studio Display XDR democratizes medical imaging, undercutting specialized monitors by up to 90% and revolutionizing healthcare accessibility.
The Studio Display XDR is priced at $2,899 with a VESA mount, and it is more affordable than many specialized medical imaging monitors.
It allows a new set of people to do what previously required only specialists to do and allows specialists to do more than they used to do. →
All of a sudden, everyone is doomed except Apple →
Despite optimistic predictions for Mac growth, persistent skepticism argues Apple faces inevitable doom due to supply issues and product flaws.
As honored as I am to be the recipient of an antlers tip, I must respectfully disagree…
The only thing you could be sure of is that Apple is doomed. →
Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet →
Bertrand Serlet, a pivotal yet understated architect behind Apple's OS X, exemplifies the profound impact of tech's quiet innovators.
Pay attention to the quiet ones
This is one in a series on Apple’s quieter heroes.…
That this interview only has 6000 views after three years shows how much untold history exists. →
Bank of America raises Apple price target to $325 from $320 →
BofA slightly ups Apple's price target to $325, forecasting $113B revenue and $2.00 EPS for Q2, driven by strong iPhone sales and Services growth, slightly above my estimates of $110B and $2.00.
Q2 forecast update
My own estimates for Q2 revenues and EPS are $110B…
More to follow as we get closer to the earnings release date but this is a good preview. →
Omdia releases first estimate for Q1 PC unit shipments →
Apple's Mac shipments grew 5.4% to capture 11% market share in Q1 2026, driven by MacBook Air and Neo sales, with revenue estimates slightly differing from unit projections.
Apple growing at double market rate.
Omidia estimates that Apple reached a market shar…
…e of 11% with shipments growing 5.4% due to solid MacBook Air sales performance and the initial sell-in of the MacBook Neo.. This means 5.4% growth for Apple y/y. As I noted in my Office Hour yesterday, I adjusted my Mac growth from 0% to 6% based on the new products launched. This is an estimate of revenues not units but it might be pretty close. Omidia estimates 7,112 million units whereas I’m a little above 6 million. We seem to disagree on ASP. →
Apple and Amazon Partner on Satellite Deal →
Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar boosts its satellite internet ambitions and strengthens ties with Apple, while highlighting the limited reach of space-based networks compared to terrestrial ones.
I assume Apple has wanted to steer clear of Starlink but it’s not clear that was a primary consideration in choosing Globalstar.
Starlink, considered the dominant player, serves about 11 million users. I would note that 11 million is 0.1% of the number of cellular subscriptions worldwide. →
iPhone vs Android Switching Rates →
iPhone users boast nearly quadruple the loyalty of Android counterparts, with actual annual switching rates favoring Apple slightly, despite inflated survey intentions.
I did a deep dive into the data and came up with graph above. The original report shows intention numbers which seem quite high. For instance, the net switching rate between iOS and Android is 10% in favor of Apple. This would imply that the entire user base would flip in 10 years. It would also imply…
I think actual net churn is 1.7% of the base each year. That’s still 100 million a year. For now it seems Apple is happy to maintain that rate. →
Office Hours
Asymco One Office Hours Live Q&A with Horace Dediu & Gene Munster: April 8, 2026 →
Asymco Office Hours, April 8, 2026
Hosts: Horace Dediu and Gene Munster
This episode of Asymco Office Hours covers a wide range of topics related to Apple, including geopolitical risks, financial performance, AI developments, and business strategy. The discussion is led by Horace Dediu and Gene Munster, with insights from industry experts.
Podcast
Asymetric Podcast: Waterloo →
In this Asymmetric Podcast episode, Horace muses on buying flowers, highlights Apple's distinguishing product, and teases his new research. →
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