Is Apple borrowing Samsung's Market Expansion Strategy?

On March 18, 2026, Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating and $340 price target for Apple Inc.

Comparing it to Samsung’s 2009–2013 strategy, which saw Samsung increase its global smartphone share from 4% to 32% in Q3 2013, Bernstein emphasized Apple Inc.’s recent product launches as a strategy to widen portfolio price bands, driving share gains at the low end while raising prices at the high end to maintain margins. Although Samsung eventually lost market share to Chinese manufacturers, the firm said the stickiness of Apple’s iOS ecosystem will help it sustain long-term market share.

Bernstein projected a 12% increase in fiscal 2027 EPS from share gains, split equally between hardware and services, assuming Apple Inc. captures 10% of Chinese manufacturers’ smartphone market share amid their supply issues. Some noteworthy product developments include the introduction of the $549 AirPods Max 2, the App Store cost reduction in China from 30% to 25%, and plans for a foldable iPhone.

Source: Yahoo Finance

NB: Separately, it's been reported that Samsung might see its first operation loss from its phone division, resulting in Apple capturing 100% (or more) of global smartphone profits. Simultaneously, Samsung is seeing huge profit gains from memory, even overtaking Nvidia's profitability. This is remarkable…

Samsung seeing windfall profits from a memory shortage but a contraction from its phones suggests a migration of value in the value chain. AI has effectively pushed profit "down" the stack from device/OS to components, and perhaps up also to services.

Apple has over the years invested down the stack to Silicon and up the stack to Services. What a surprise! The commentariat has not quite grasped this but has already jumped to conclusions that Apple is getting squeezed from supply chain and AI.

The future however is not so sweet for either components or AI-as-a-service. There has never been a shortage that was not followed by a glut. The semiconductor business is known for this boom/bust cycle and this time it's not different. Unless AI conquers distribution, privacy, experiences and understanding & mastery of jobs-to-be-done while preventing commoditization through replication and scale economies of compute, there will not be a break-out new business model. There is no clear reason why Apple won't figure out any of the unknowns while preserving an ecosystem advantage.

Samsung has the same challenge they've always had: how to create its own ecosystem and control over its future via its own platforms.