Asymco Bulletin 028 - Aug 30, 2026
by Horace Dediu
The Asymmetric Weekly
Look Ahead
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Nota Bene
One in three phones sold in Europe is now an iPhone → Europe's smartphone market fell 10% year over year in Q2 to 35 million units, the weakest second quarter in three years, and Apple took 34% share, up from 31%, now tied with Samsung. Counterpoint expects further declines ahead, worst at the low end, and expects Apple to outperform the market for the foreseeable future. This runs longer than a single quarter. Apple is energized by the transition because it was never a phone company to begin with. →
The Freshman Register → Social media accounts for the largest share of screen time on every device, Apple's included, and if short video and messaging count it runs past four hours a day. But the thesis has collapsed after 22 years: what users see is almost never from friends, family, or the accounts they chose to follow, a shift that began with TikTok seven years ago. Followers no longer matter because the algorithm decides distribution, and an algorithm learns that negative emotions are worth more than positive ones. Usage is up, satisfaction is down, and Meta now trades at a P/E of 20 with a five year return of 50% against Google's 144% and Apple's 110%. It is no longer social media. It is algorithmic media, and the corrosion will eventually undermine the business. →
Apple Pay’s Pay Day: Tap to Pay Is Coming to Walmart and Sam’s Club → In 2014 I expected Apple Pay to be a billion dollar business by 2020 at a 15 basis point take rate, and in 2021 I concluded I had been four years too optimistic. Apple Pay handled $7.6 trillion in 2025 and generated roughly $5.6 billion in revenue at half that take rate, so the estimate was conservative after all. The user base passed 818 million, 94% of US retail accepts it, and it now carries 10% of global card transactions and 54% of US in-store wallet transactions. Walmart is joining on August 24, which means the last major holdout took twelve years to decide that checkout convenience matters. →
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