Nota Bene

Tony Fadell:

"When Steve Jobs and I would walk around the Apple campus back in 2008/9, we talked about the Apple Car and he thought we need to do it."

Fadell says that Jobs's vision for the project was a people's car, inspired by the original Volkswagen. "What's the next generation people's car? What's going to be used in the cities?"

Where he believes Apple effectively tried to make a self-driving SUV, the company should have looked instead at changing how people thought about cars. 

"Apple is a company that redefines certain aspects of life," he said. "It redefined what it was to do desktop publishing, or publishing in general. It redefined music. So they should redefine mobility."

Source: Eric Newcomer founder of Newcomer. YouTube Video and post.

NB: Steve was right but the people's car today is not a car. It's micromobility. I've been talking about it for 7 years.

Counterpoint Research published its latest market estimates for best selling phones in 2025. The list is:

1. iPhone 16
2. iPhone 16 Pro Max
3. iPhone 16 Pro
4. iPhone 17 Pro Max
5. Galaxy A16 5G
6. Galaxy A06 4G
7. iPhone 17
8. iPhone 15
9. Galaxy S25 Ultra
10. iPhone 16e

What’s notable, however, is that the base model iPhone 17 took 7th place. This contrasts with the iPhone 16 managing only 10th place in 2024, and very much reinforces the widespread view that the base 17 is the model to buy unless you specifically need one of the pro features. It’s the reason we crowned it as “the best overall iPhone in years.”

Source: 9to5mac.com

NB: Not as exciting as the 20% market share for the full year, the saturation of the list by Apple products is indicative of a dominance in revenues not just volumes of sale. The Apple products have a significantly higher average selling price.

Apple is set to report its strongest iPhone sales growth in four years on Thursday - and likely the company's best quarterly revenue to date…

Strong iPhone sales expected to power record Christmas quarter for Apple appeared first on MacDailyNews.

In China and developing markets, Apple drew customers with the refreshed camera design and higher storage capacity of the latest Pro devices.

The company led the global smartphone market last year with a 20% share, according to research firm Counterpoint, up from 18% in 2024.

Overall, Apple is expected to report that iPhone sales rose 13.8% in its October-December fiscal first quarter, according to analysts polled by LSEG. That would mark the strongest growth in more than four years.

Total revenue likely increased 11.4% to a record $138.43 billion, aided by a 14.1% jump in Apple’s the services business.

In Greater China, sales likely jumped about 15%, according to Visible Alpha data.

Some investors believe Apple can make money from AI without the massive infrastructure investments pledged by its Big Tech rivals.

“Apple can probably generate a positive return on very little AI investment, thanks to its distribution,” said Gerrit Smit, manager of the Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity fund, which holds Apple stock.

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NB

My estimate is 14% growth in iPhone revenues. 14% growth in Services and $139 Billion revenues. Not a big difference to this poll.

Apple stock price today: AAPL climbs at the open as $315 target meets earnings week  TechStock

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee bumped his Apple price target to $315 from $305, according to MarketScreener. Keep in mind, a price target reflects where an analyst expects a stock to land within a year—it’s not a guarantee.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee remained cautious, maintaining a Neutral rating while cutting his price target to $276.47 from $283.36. These mixed calls highlight just how close the debate is ahead of earnings.

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NB:

It's not that close. False precision on Jefferies' target belies a grand failure.

A tech columnist finds the Apple Health ChatGPT integration raises major red flags after feeding the AI bot a decade of Apple Watch data.

ChatGPT launched its ability to integrate Apple Health data on January 7, 2026. So Fowler connected ChatGPT Health to 29 million steps and 6 million heartbeat measurements stored in his Apple Health app, then asked the bot to evaluate his cardiac health. The results alarmed Fowler: ChatGPT gave him an F grade. Panicked, he went for a run and sent the report to his actual doctor.

His doctor’s response? “No,” Fowler wasn’t failing. In fact, his heart attack risk was so low that insurance likely wouldn’t cover additional testing to prove the AI wrong.

“The more I used ChatGPT Health, the worse things got,” Fowler wrote.

Read the original article →

NB:

LLMs don't make good doctors. In fact they are quite dangerous. An opportunity for Apple to expound on its descriptive vs. prescriptive approach to health data.

Consensus estimates Apple to post about $138.4 billion in revenue and both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of around $2.67 for the December quarter. The numbers highlight at least an 11% year-over-year growth in EPS and revenue, but analysts are now tightening their margin forecasts despite favourable iPhone sales and AI roadmap.

In a note, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring reiterated an Overweight rating and an unchanged price target of $315, but cautioned investors that Apple stock could “trade sideways to modestly lower after earnings.”

The firm expects Apple to beat expectations, driven by stronger, more persistent iPhone demand. Woodring expects December-quarter revenue of about $80 billion, around 4% above consensus, and March-quarter revenue of $55.4 billion, about 8% above consensus, citing supply-chain checks and shipment data.

He said iPhone 17’s “strength remains underappreciated by the Street.”

Morgan Stanley sees cost assumptions as overly optimistic. The firm forecasts March-quarter operating expenses about 7% above consensus and a gross margin forecast 30 basis points below consensus, driven by rising memory costs.

As a result, Woodring sees limited scope for positive EPS revisions for Apple, even with a revenue beat.

Morgan Stanley also flagged potential downside risk to June quarter earnings, estimating EPS of $1.62 versus the consensus of $1.71, citing intensifying memory-related cost pressures. The firm also notes that Apple has historically underperformed the S&P 500 more in Q1 than in any other period.

Looking ahead to 2026

All things considered, Morgan Stanley believes Apple is positioned to outperform in 2026 as a wave of new products and AI-driven catalysts is set to shape the company’s growth trajectory. The firm particularly highlighted the relaunch of Siri in February and Apple Intelligence in June at Apple’s Worldwide Developers’ Conference (WWDC).
Some notable introductions expected include its most “innovative iPhone in 10+ years (Foldable)“, plus the first smartphone powered by 2-nanometer chips, part of the iPhone 18 family.

The firm sees greater benefits from share gains and higher average selling prices, with Morgan Stanley underscoring an EPS of $9.77 for FY2027, roughly 7% above Wall Street consensus.

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Our Take

Earnings will be above consensus. All eyes will be on how margin guidance due to pressure from memory pricing. Every year it's another thing that is cause for drama. It never matters.

JPMorgan has raised its price target on Apple stock to $315 from $305, maintaining its overweight rating, as the bank expresses optimism…

JPMorgan boosts Apple price target to $315 ahead of earnings, citing strong iPhone 17 demand appeared first on MacDailyNews.

NB:

The iPhone 17 demand was evident during the last quarterly update from Apple. Management provided guidance one month into the quarter (and we are now one month into the next quarter) such that y/y growth of at least 13% in iPhone revenues was the only way to match that guidance.

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