Introducing Asymco One
The all-in-one on Apple
In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50.
This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.
- During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion. 17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion.
- Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5.
- Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion.
The increases in multiples:
- 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
- 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
- 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
- Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth.
The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with.
That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.
When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.
So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so. This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge. A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.
And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey.
Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.
Let’s learn together.
To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One.
Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:
- Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene.
- Reconsider your assumptions with Research.
- Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin.
- Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts.
- Get your questions answered during Office Hours.
- Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
- Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.
All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.
Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.
It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone.
But for you, dear reader, who have been with us for so long, I am offering a discount of $250 with the code PIONEER.
I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person.
Yours,
Horace Dediu
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Use code PIONEER to save 25%.
