Asymco

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Apr 5, 2026.

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Podcast

Apple at 50: Ben Thompson of Stratechery interviews Horace Dediu → Horace describes his journey from Romania to becoming a leading tech analyst, highlighting his experiences at GTE Labs, business school under Clayton Christensen, and Nokia during the iPhone's birth. He emphasizes Apple's customer-centric approach and its potential to navigate AI challenges. Dediu also shares insights on his new paid service, Asymco One, and reflects on the importance of understanding market dynamics and customer satisfaction. He expresses optimism about Apple's future and underscores the value of deep, long-term analysis in tech forecasting. →

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Nota Bene

Apple Maps Is Getting Ads. It’s Apple’s Riskiest Bet Yet → Apple streamlines business tools and cautiously enters Maps advertising. It's not Apple's riskiest bet yet. →

Survey shows iPhone improved retention, purchase intent, growth in services, service pricing, product mix, foldable upside → Despite robust customer loyalty, service growth, and strategic hardware shifts bolstering margins, UBS's maintains neutral stance and $280 target. →

Apple’s Business Strategy → Apple's enterprise growth is driven by its strong consumer base. Do new services like Apple Business suggest a new emphasis? →

Melius highlights FCF while reiterating buy on Apple → In the AI era, valuation shifts from traditional P/E to EV/FCF, highlighting Apple's robust financial health and fair valuation amidst its significant product launches. →

The iPhone 50 years from now – and why Apple won’t have AI execs → Rumors suggest the iPhone 70th anniversary edition might feature an innovative new camera system, while Apple CEO Tim Cook dismisses the idea of AI-led executives due to legal and functional constraints. →

We know that Macs last longer in use. How much longer? → Macs and iPhones outlast Windows PCs and Android phones in enterprises, yet decisions are suboptimal. How long will that last? →

Warren Buffett tries to justify his hypocrisy → Buffett's actions on Apple highlight a difference between his statements and his actions. →

Apple Vision Pro users will be able to experience NASA’s Artemis II launch in immersive video → Immersive experiences redefine our connection to events such as space exploration. →

Mac market share to grow from 9% to 12% in 2026 → "Apple defies the 2026 notebook market slump with a strategic shift, poised for its largest share gain since 1991." →

Analysis: Mac grew 16% and iPad grow 15% in China in the fourth quarter of 2025 → In 2025, Apple's Mac and iPad sales in China saw notable year-over-year growth, while looming 2026 market contractions hint at challenges. Apple might defy trend with new launches. →

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Office Hours

The next Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A will be held on:

Wed April 8 at 12pm ET / 9am PT
Asymco.com/live

Asymco One subscribers can sign up to attend the live Q&A with our own Horacle of Helsinksi.

Conference details will be sent to participants with ample time before the call. Watch asymco.com/live for latest updates.

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We appreciate your feedback! Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. Looking forward to hearing from you.

Mark your calendars!

The next Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A will be on Wed April 8 at 12pm ET / 9am PT. Asymco One subscribers can sign up to attend the live Q&A.

See latest Update

https://asymco.com/2026/04/07/asymco-office-hours-live-qa-with-horace-dediu-april-8-2026-2/

Office Hours Live Q&A is open to Asymco One subscribers.

Contact us at events@asysmco.com if you have any questions.

Ben Thompson of the Stratechery interviews Horace on the Stratechery Plus Podcast to discuss Horace's journey to become an influential tech analyst: early career in research, business school under Clayton Christensen, and his time at Nokia during the rise of the iPhone. 

The conversation further explores Disruption Theory in the context of both smartphones and AI, why Christensen misjudged Apple, and whether AI could challenge today’s tech giants. It also marks the launch of Dediu’s new paid service Asymco One and reflects his continued conviction in Apple Inc. at its 50-year milestone.

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 28, 2026.

Research

The Next 50

In Apple’s first 50 years it shipped 5.13 billion computers. This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 50 years. There actually are no other PC makers that are 50 years old. But all these things were true also 40 years ago. So what are we celebrating now that we did not celebrate at Apple 40? The answer is Services, the consistency in growth in user base and the potential trajectory of growth to never-before imagine audiences. The biggest change is a change of horizons. →

People don’t like wearing things on their faces and don’t trust those who do

Says Neal Stephenson who first coined the term “metaverse” This revelation came soon after Meta canceled the Metaverse. Let’s look into Neal Stephenson’s mea culpa:

When I was working at Magic Leap, and people asked me why I thought that [Metaverse] was a good idea, I would ask the rhetorical question: “do you really think that twenty years from now everyone is still going to be going around all day staring at little rectangles in their hands?” →

The Biggest Bundle?

How everyone is wrong about AI. The newspaper was an unexpected development It was not a product that anyone asked for. Like many innovations, it wasn’t an invention. It was not patented or discovered in a laboratory. It emerged as a result of the convergence of three disparate technologies: continuous roll printing presses, the telegraph, and the railroad. This convergence occurred by the 1830s, facilitated by a business model aptly named “the penny press”. Stepping back, the printing press was initially developed in the 1450s, 40 years before Columbus’ voyage. It went through numerous evolutions. The big change was moving →

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Nota Bene

Apple, Samsung Dominate 2025 List of Highest-shipping Models Across Regions → In 2025, Apple dominated premium smartphone markets across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, while Samsung excelled in entry- to mid-tier segments in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. →

Tim Cook: Apple just had best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers → Neo brought Apple its strongest launch week performance, presumably by attracting first-time Mac buyers, and helping customers transition out of netbooks and Windows laptops. →

Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →

Apple’s China smartphone sales jump 23% as overall market fell 4% to start 2026 → Apple defied market trends with a striking 23% iPhone sales surge in China, outpacing competitors despite broader smartphone shipment declines. →

“There’s So Much Left” in iPhone: Tim Cook → Apple's relentless focus on user-centric innovation, epitomized by the ever-ascendant iPhone, underscores its enduring dominance and untapped market potential. →

Amazon developing a new phone more than a decade after its first → Amazon's renewed attempt at a smartphone, "Transformer," aims to integrate AI and deepen Prime ecosystem ties, learning from past Fire failures by addressing trust, scale, and developer engagement challenges. →

Mac fastest growing PC brand in India in Q4 2025 → In 2025, India's PC market soared to a record 15.9 million units, with Mac sales impressively up 24% year over year, hinting at a bright future despite looming 2026 challenges. →

Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come → "Waddle transforms visionOS into a portal of immersive exploration, where experiencing surpasses explaining." →

How to read the MacBook Neo as bad news for the stock → "Apple's Neo success is misleadingly painted as a margin threat, ignoring cost efficiencies and manufacturing leverage." →

Apple TV is a categorization failure → Apple TV, launched in 2007, struggled for 19 years as a misunderstood, underappreciated gateway to content, overshadowed by Apple's product-centric reputation. →

Apple’s Custom Silicon Opens up Potential for a Cellular MacBook → "Apple's C1X modem not only matches Qualcomm's performance but also reshapes the economic landscape for always-connected MacBooks, hinting at a future where seamless cellular integration redefines portable computing." →

Apple turns component crisis into competitive advantage → Apple leverages the memory crisis to aggressively capture market share from struggling Android, PC, and Chromebook competitors. →

Survey shows record upgrade interest for iPhones → Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple as the sole major smartphone vendor to gain market share in 2026, driven by strong upgrade intent and advanced features, while Android struggles with rising costs and declining loyalty. →

MacBook Neo Market Impact: Analysts weigh in → Market analysts predict the MacBook Neo will disrupt the low-end PC market, especially in education, by leveraging Apple's higher margins and user-centric design, despite challenges from price-sensitive K-12 sectors dominated by Chromebooks. →

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World’s most respected Apple Analyst. —Macfilos

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Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 22, 2026.

Research

How to calibrate executive departures

Executive exodus explicated.

In December, the company lost AI chief John Giannandrea, its top lawyer and a key design executive in a single week. Other recent headlines: “Apple faces unprecedented executive exodus”, “Apple rocked by executive departures, with chip chief at risk of leaving next.” “Apple home devices executive leaves for Finland’s Oura” “Lisa Jackson is set to retire late January 2026, while Kate Adams will retire in late 2026”. That’s just the names we hear about. They represent senior executives. But the harsh truth is that Apple lost tens of thousands of talented developers, marketers and mangers last year.

What's wrong with this analysis? →

The biggest surprise of the MacBook Neo

Remembering the PC market.

Almost 10 years ago I said “Managing the Mac product line must be one of the most challenging problems at Apple. That may not be obvious given the product’s success.” I pointed out that although the company grew the Mac into a redeemed and prosperous platform, “The big change in computing has not been a growing Mac vs. declining PC. It has been a huge surge in mobile device use vs. a decline in PC use overall.” It’s time to revisit this observation. First, a status update: The Mac is in its 42nd year...

How to read the history of the Mac and how to look at market share gains potential. Also: why the Mac has always been a cheaper alternative for buyers. →

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Nota Bene

Apple’s China smartphone sales jump 23% as overall market fell 4% to start 2026 → Apple defied market trends with a striking 23% iPhone sales surge in China, outpacing competitors despite broader smartphone shipment declines. →

Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → The article discusses how Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →

Tim Cook: Apple just had best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers → Apple's MacBook Neo reportedly had its strongest launch week for attracting first-time Mac buyers, hinting at successful customer transitions from Windows. →

Apple, Samsung Dominate 2025 List of Highest-shipping Models Across Regions → In 2025, Apple dominated premium smartphone markets across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, while Samsung excelled in entry- to mid-tier segments in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. →

Apple Is Way Behind in AI—and Still Making a Fortune From It: WSJ → "Apple's billion-dollar AI distribution play highlights its retail prowess but pales against its trillion-dollar ambitions." →

Lobster Boil → "OpenClaw, a revolutionary open-source AI agent by Peter Steinberger, transforms personal computing by autonomously managing tasks across platforms, sparking a Mac Mini craze and hinting at a future where AI agents are integral to daily life." →

‘No Near-Term Catalyst,’ KeyBanc on Apple Stock → Near-term catalysts may not sway long-term investors, but if Apple's valuation seems steep, critique the pricing, not its promising 14% revenue growth forecast. →

Tim Cook squashes retirement rumors, says he ‘can’t imagine life without Apple’ → Tim Cook dismisses rumors of stepping down, emphasizing his enduring passion for Apple and suggesting stability through potential political changes. →

NVIDIA’s Language Processing Units Shipments Swell 10x+ vs Previous Yr (but how do they compare to Apple Silicon volumes?) → NVIDIA's Groq investment boosts LPU forecasts to 4-5 million, yet Apple's 500 million AI chips dwarf this, hinting at centralized intelligence reminiscent of '1984.' →

Harmful chemicals found in popular headphones → Apple's AirPods Pro 2 and JBL's Tune 720BT topped the safety charts, while budget brands like Temu raised red flags for hazardous chemical exposure. →

When does Apple split its stock? → Apple's stock split history shows a pattern of adjusting high share prices to maintain accessibility, with splits occurring around $100-$650 thresholds, potentially hinting at a $300 minimum for future splits. →

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Executive exodus explicated

In December, the company lost AI chief John Giannandrea, its top lawyer and a key design executive in a single week. Other recent headlines: "Apple faces unprecedented executive exodus", "Apple rocked by executive departures, with chip chief at risk of leaving next." "Apple home devices executive leaves for Finland's Oura" "Lisa Jackson is set to retire late January 2026, while Kate Adams will retire in late 2026".

That's just the names we hear about. They represent senior executives. But the harsh truth is that Apple lost tens of thousands of talented developers, marketers and mangers last year and this year the numbers will be even higher. Is this indicative of an existential crisis in Cupertino which Tim Cook can't contain? Tim's head alone should be the first to roll to reverse this crisis in headcount.

Alas, math rears its ugly head.

Apple has over 166,000 employees including retail staff. According to one measure, Apple sees 58% of its staff turn over each year, having an average tenure of only 1.7 years, the worst in the tech world. That would imply 96,000 employees leave each year.

That seemed excessive to me and I assumed retail skews the total significantly. Retail, according to comments on Reddit, sees a few months of work per employee. So what is the turnover for its more "permanent" talent?

Let's assume that Apple can hold on to people as well as Alphabet/Google. We don't hear about the crisis of retention at Google. Their average tenure is 3.7 years, implying 27% would quit each year and indicate 49,000 Googlers leaving each year.

That rate applying to Apple would imply 45,000 Apple employees leaving each year. Having twice the tenure of Google would still mean 20,000 Apple employees quit each year.

A headline that screamed that between 20,000 and 30,000 Apple employees [quit, flee, abandon, escape] Apple each year would be perfectly reasonable and suggest a strong degree of loyalty. Moreover, next year the number will be higher because next year there will be more employees.

Of those tens of thousands, surely a few are senior managers. In fact, surveys show that 60% of executives plan to change roles in 3 years. The fact that we only hear of a handful of departures each year implies that Apple is far better at retention than average.

Nevertheless, the exodus continues.

Read more:

https://asymco.com/2026/03/17/tim-cook-squashes-retirement-rumors-says-he-cant-imagine-life-without-apple/

https://asymco.com/2026/03/12/how-many-employees-does-apple-have-what-do-they-do/

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 15, 2026.

Research

The most brilliant move in corporate history?

In a bold departure from its Big Tech peers, Apple sidestepped the $650 billion AI infrastructure spending frenzy. While Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta funneled cash into data centers, bleeding cash flow and adding debt, Apple maintained a consistent $14 billion capital budget. This strategic choice reflects Apple’s belief that AI models are rapidly commoditizing, as evidenced by DeepSeek’s $6 million model rivaling $100 million counterparts. Instead of building proprietary models, Apple licensed Google’s Gemini, reserving the option to switch vendors as superior models emerge.

Apple’s genius lies in leveraging its ecosystem—2 billion devices transforming into a distributed AI powerhouse. Apple silicon on device enables local AI processing, bypassing the need for colossal server farms. This approach not only conserves capital but also amplifies customer loyalty, as Apple uniquely protects privacy. Ultimately, Apple bets on owning the customer experience, positioning itself to thrive regardless of infrastructure ownership. →

Is Apple Pivoting?

Apple's recent product launches, including the 17e and MacBook Neo, have sparked speculation about a strategic shift towards low-end markets. However, this view overlooks Apple's fundamental approach to market segmentation, which eschews simplistic price categorizations. Instead, Apple focuses on the "job-to-be-done," understanding that consumer purchases are driven by desired outcomes rather than affordability alone. This perspective reveals that performance and quality are crucial, transcending income levels. For instance, affluent individuals may opt for simpler devices, while budget-conscious consumers might invest in high-performance tools to meet specific needs, like content creation.

Historically, Apple has aimed to deliver superior experiences to a broad audience, refusing to compromise on quality with budget-friendly products like Chromebooks. While cost can limit access, as seen with the Vision Pro, Apple prioritizes profitability as a validation of its value proposition. The MacBook Neo exemplifies this ethos, leveraging efficient mobile chipsets to redefine laptop capabilities at a competitive price point. This innovation blurs the lines between mobile and traditional computing, underscoring Apple's commitment to crafting products tailored to diverse tasks. Ultimately, Apple's strategic depth, powered by Silicon advancements, positions it to serve an expansive global market by addressing a wide array of functional needs. →

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Nota Bene

Rosenblatt Lifts Price Target on Apple by $1, Maintains Netural Rating → On March 5, Rosenblatt's Barton Crockett slightly raised Apple's price target to $268 while maintaining a Neutral stance, optimistic about Apple's budget product launches and steady high-end performance, despite trading at a modest premium compared to peers, as analysts foresee robust revenue growth for FY2026. →

How many employees does Apple have? What do they do? → Apple, despite its marketing reputation, is fundamentally an engineering powerhouse with nearly half its workforce dedicated to engineering roles, driving its substantial revenue growth and global employment expansion. →

First footage of X-Plane 12 on Vision Pro → X-Plane 12 on Apple Vision Pro leverages ARKit to seamlessly integrate physical controls into a mixed reality flight simulation streamed from a Mac, showcasing advanced professional-grade AR capabilities. →

iPhone production in India increases by 53% in 2025 → Apple's strategic shift to ramp up iPhone production in India by 53% last year, aiming not just to sidestep tariffs but to cultivate a vast new customer base, underscores a long-term vision mirroring its successful penetration of the Chinese market. →

Qualcomm faces loss of Apple business, rated ‘Underperform’ by Bank of America → Qualcomm's dominant era in smartphone chips wanes as Apple and others pivot to internal solutions amid costly licensing disputes. →

MacBook Neo May Boost Revenue By 0.5% While Expanding Into Student Market – Gene Munster → The MacBook Neo, targeting both education and broader markets, could modestly boost Apple's revenue by $2 billion annually without impacting margins, potentially revitalizing the Mac segment akin to Covid-era growth. →

Apple’s AI Hardware Blitz Could Send The Stock 33% Higher, Says Wedbush’s Dan Ives → Apple's hardware blitz prioritizes product refreshment over AI emphasis, potentially setting the stage for future growth, though its $350 stock target faces external market challenges. →

China’s Android shipments plunge as inventory builds in contrast to iPhones: Jefferies → "China's Android market faces a perfect storm of rising inventories, soaring memory costs, and renewed iPhone strength, hinting at a potential tipping point." →

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Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 8, 2026.

Editor's Note

It's been about a month since we launched Asymco One, and we are elated with the response from the community. Most recently, we held our first Office Hour, where we discussed the impact of Apple's latest products and answered questions in front of a live, Asymco One subscribers. We'd like to thank you for your support.

We continue to make improvements in how we create and deliver our content. Please bear with us while we renovate our infrastructure. Should you have any issues or have questions, please reach us at contact@asymco.com.

Finally, if you are on the fence about committing to Asymco One for a whole year, we've introduced the Asymco One monthly subscription. Try it today!

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Research

Apple Services in Europe: Scale and Growth

Since October 2023, Apple has been transparently reporting App Store user metrics across 27 EU nations, updating these figures biannually. This initiative spans a population over 450 million, offering a granular yet rounded down to the nearest million, potentially skewing figures slightly downward. To mitigate this undercounting bias, adjustments are factored into trend analyses.

Through three sampling intervals from 2023 through July 2024, a market landscape emerges. The aggregated data hints at subtle shifts and growth patterns. →

Stairway Update

The iPhone 17e emerges as an incremental refinement—"the new low end, same as the old low end, but better." Apple has streamlined its lineup by axing the mid-memory "e" model, leaving us with two price points. This simplification might appear reductive, yet it strategically consolidates offerings while enhancing value. Notably, the base model's memory has doubled, a move that defies the prevailing DRAM scarcity narrative, suggesting Apple's adept supply chain management and perhaps a bit of market leverage.

By trimming excess and boosting core features, the 17e exemplifies a nuanced approach to product evolution. →

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Nota Bene

Apple introduces iPhone 17e → Apple's iPhone 17e offers double storage at the same $599 price, boosting profit margins. →

Apple introduces the new iPad Air, powered by M4 → Apple's new iPad Air with M4 chip and increased memory boosts performance, enhancing versatility. →

Apple announces new MacBook Air with M5 and MacBook Pro with M5 Pro and M5 Max → Apple's latest MacBook lineup offers the affordable, efficient M5-powered Air, the mid-range balanced performer, and the high-end, powerhouse M5 Pro and Max models for demanding professionals. →

Apple unveils new Studio Display and all-new Studio Display XDR → Apple's Studio Display XDR boasts a 27-inch 5K Retina screen with mini-LED, 2000 nits brightness, and 120Hz refresh, ideal for professionals. →

Say hello to MacBook Neo → Apple launched the MacBook Neo, a budget-friendly laptop with premium features, priced at $599, amid concerns over shrinking margins in the Windows laptop market. →

Apple’s strategy is actually genius if you think about it → "Apple's strategic pivot to on-device AI could dismantle the AI boom by making models redundant and controlling the distribution gateway." →

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Office Hours

Apple Q&A: Horace Dediu & Ben Bajarin discuss implications of Apple’s March 4, 2026 rollout →

We convened our first Office Hours on March 4 to review Apple's latest releases, where we answered questions from a live audience of subscribers, and dissected Apple's latest and strategies. Topics covered:

• MacBook Neo's Market
• iPhone Pricing tiers
• Apple's Margin Strategy
• Siri and Apple's AI Strategy
• Spatial Computing: Ergonomics, AI
• Apple's AI and Spatial Computing
• Cellular Modems and Laptops
• Premium vs. "cheap"
• Changes to Smartphone Market Dynamics
• Product Cannibalization

Full recording and transcript is available to Asymco One subscribers.

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Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending March 1, 2026.

Office Hours

Our first Office Hours interactive seminar and Ask Me Anything questions/answer session will be on March 4th, after, presumably all the new announcements Apple will be making during the week. I will be broadcasting to you en vivo y en directo from Paris.

Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A → Join us for an exclusive Asymco One live Q&A on March 4 at 3pm ET to dissect Apple's latest business moves. →

Research

How many Apple users are in China?

Greater China (GC) is a specific reporting segment for Apple, encompassing Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, with a combined population nearing 1.5 billion. This region is not just a significant contributor to Apple's revenue—accounting for 18% of net sales in Q4 2025—but also a dynamic landscape of technological adoption and consumer behavior. The smartphone user base in GC has surged from 690 million in 2016 to nearly a billion in 2025, with projections reaching 1.08 billion by 2029.

The iOS ecosystem within GC exhibits varied dynamics across its constituent regions. While Macao maintains a steady iOS share of around 60%, Mainland China and Taiwan show different trajectories. Analyzing these trends through mobile OS share data reveals iOS's ascent, suggesting robust potential for further penetration and user engagement. As Apple navigates this complex market, understanding GC's historical growth patterns and future prospects is crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities and sustaining its competitive edge. →

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Nota Bene

Apple #1 phone vendor in Europe → Apple leads Q4 2025 with a 7% YoY shipment rise driven by iPhone 17, while Samsung follows with 4% growth; Xiaomi faces a 6% decline amid shifting regional dynamics. →

Are Solid State Batteries Finally Here? → Donut Lab has partnered with VTT for independent battery tests, with full reports and videos to follow. →

iPhone becomes India’s top single export item → In 2025, Apple's iPhone exports from India, driven by Tata and Foxconn plants and a robust supply chain, reached $23 billion, making smartphones the top export category. →

Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating → Apple's Services, beyond just the App Store, are poised for robust growth, driven by global market expansion and strong hardware demand. →

Here’s why demand for Macs has spiked → Mac lead times have surged to multi-year highs due to increased demand, notably impacting models like Mac Studio, MacBook Pro M4, and Mac Mini. →

A resource for AVP news → "AVP VIP offers a weekly, ad-free digest of tech news and insights, accessible to Asymco One members." →

Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year → Apple revamps the Mac mini with M4 chips and boosts U.S. chip sourcing, starting at $599 without display, amid rising demand. →

Apple Pay Aiming Launch in India This Year → Apple Pay aims to launch in India by late 2026, pending regulatory approvals and fee negotiations with card issuers. →

iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information → Apple's iPhone and iPad achieve unprecedented NATO compliance, marking a pivotal shift in secure mobile technology acceptance. →

Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger → In an interview, Apple's Eddy Cue highlighted Brazil as the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Apple TV subscribers, while noting potential impacts from proposed streaming regulations and a possible Netflix-Warner deal. Specific user and device numbers were not disclosed. →

DRAM Shortage Will Cause ‘Seismic Shift’ in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected → A looming DRAM shortage due to AI demand will slash smartphone sales by 13% in 2026, forcing a market shift towards pricier devices, with relief not expected until mid-2027. →

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Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Feb 22, 2026.

Research

Teen Survey Update: What happens when teens grow up?

Latest data indicates 88% of teens own and intend to purchase iPhones, marking a decade-long trend of increasing adoption. This phenomenon transcends mere functionality; the iPhone has become a cultural icon, symbolizing status and identity.

Unlike other Apple products, such as Apple TV+ or Apple Music, which struggle for traction among teens, the iPhone's appeal is deeply woven into the social fabric, partly due to generational continuity—the children of early iPhone adopters are now loyal users themselves.

In contrast, social media platforms illustrate the fickle nature of tech usage among younger demographics. While Facebook remains prevalent among older millennials, Gen Z gravitates towards Instagram and TikTok, reflecting shifts in cultural preferences and digital behaviors.

For Apple, success in services like Music and TV+ hinges on leveraging existing family dynamics through bundling.

Read More →→→

Apple in Europe: How many iPhone switchers are addressable in the near term?

On the Q4 call, Tim Cook highlighted Greater China’s 38% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by record iPhone sales, strong upgrade activity, and double-digit retail traffic gains.

Europe, however, drew little attention—despite generating more revenue for Apple than China. This is peculiar.

Europe’s smartphone market shows steady structural gains for iOS. Since 2018, share has risen from 24% to 39%, while Android has fallen from 74% to 60%—a 15-point swing equal to roughly 70 million additional users. With an installed base near 459 million users versus about 300 million in the U.S., Europe combines scale with affluence.

In sum, the pattern for Apple in Europe is not saturation but share transfer, signaling durable competitive strength in a mature market and an inkling of how all markets will eventually behave in maturity.

Read More →→→

Estimating 2035 iPhone Users

In the last quarter Apple reported 2.5 billion active devices. Of those, I estimate 1.6 billion are iPhones.

Using this as a base, I've created an iPhone installed base estimate looking forward to 2030, integrating Statcounter’s market share data, Ericsson’s global smartphone user forecasts, and BankMyCell’s smartphone install base.

The sources broadly align through 2025, though Statcounter’s historical iOS share (2017–2023) diverges somewhat, possibly reflecting Android’s heavier web traffic footprint due to usage patterns and bot activity rather.

Taken together, the data points to iPhone nearing 2 billion active devices by 2030, consistent with overall smartphone adoption. Android’s projected rise toward 4.5 billion users signals continuing headroom.

If switching dynamics and monetization trends persist, Apple’s ecosystem could expand to 2.5–3 billion users by 2035, with growth thereafter driven by switching and increased engagement depth and value extraction per user.

Read More →→→

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Nota Bene

Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4 → Apple is hosting intimate, global "Special Apple Experience" events on March 4, 2026, likely unveiling new products like the iPhone 17e and M5-powered MacBooks, marking a fresh twist on traditional live-streamed launches.

Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts → The "pod" in podcasts originated from Apple's iPod, with the company popularizing the medium by integrating podcasting into iTunes in 2005, and continuing to innovate with features like video podcast support and dynamic ad insertion.

Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color → Apple's upcoming lineup, featuring color-excited anticipation for the iPhone 17e and modest updates to iPads, promises subtle yet intriguing tech advancements.

Dan Ives Says Apple’s AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion → Apple's unparalleled distribution through its vast user base offers a significant competitive edge for rapidly monetizing AI innovations, potentially adding $1.5 trillion in value.

While big tech burns cash on AI, Apple waits → As foundation models commoditize, Apple strategically curates top AI tech into its ecosystem, prioritizing user experience over engine development.

Secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share → Apple faces memory cost inflation potentially raising iPhone prices, yet its strong ecosystem and execution provide resilience, whereas competitors like Samsung may struggle more due to lesser volume leverage.

iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche → Six skiers survived a deadly Lake Tahoe avalanche by using iPhone's Emergency SOS via satellite, highlighting its transition from luxury to essential. This feature enabled crucial communication with rescuers in remote areas lacking cellular service. The evolution mirrors mobile phones but faces slower adoption due to satellite bandwidth constraints.

The US Supreme Court has ruled against US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a raft of global tariffs → Apple and other affected companies may soon seek refunds for tariffs paid, following the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate Trump's tariffs, though the exact timeline and amount remain uncertain.

Bankers complain that Apple has a tight grip on mobile payments → Canadian banks struggled to compete in the mobile wallet market, dominated by tech giants like Apple and Google, due to their risk-averse nature clashing with tech's innovation-driven approach.

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The all new Asymco One

Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing. → Asymco celebrates 17 years of insightful Apple analysis, launching Asymco One to guide stakeholders through Apple's evolving era with comprehensive content and community engagement. →

Introducing: Asymco One Office Hours → Join Asymco One's monthly Office Hours with Horace to get live insights on Apple's business and financials, with special editions during key events.

All Asymco Podcasts. All in One: Asymco One. → Exciting news: All Asymco Podcasts now under Asymco One subscription with remastered classics and new episodes.

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The all-in-one on Apple

In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

• During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
• Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
• Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

The increases in multiples:

• 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
• 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
• 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
• Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
  36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

Let’s learn together. 

To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One. 

Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:

1. Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene. 
2. Reconsider your assumptions with Research. 
3. Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin. 
4. Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts. 
5. Get your questions answered during Office Hours. 
6. Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
7. Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.

All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.

Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.

It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone. 

For early adopters we are offering a discount of $150 with the code INNOVATE.

I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person. 

Yours,

Horace Dediu

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