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Can iPhone reach 20% of global smartphone market?

Research · 3 comments

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On a yearly basis, iPhone has been growing at 270% in 2008,83% in 2009 and 130% so far this year.  The growth has been faster than the growth of the smartphone market during the same time.  As a result, the market share of the iPhone has increased from 2% in 2007 to 13% in 2009.

The question now is: What is the required growth rate for iPhone to maintain growth in share as the overall market grows?

Taking market estimates from Morgan Stanley, I tried to fit an iPhone growth rate which would result in a 20% share for Apple by 2013. This rate turns out to be a conservative 50%/yr.  Any growth beyond 50% would result in well over 20% share for the iPhone.

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3 comments

  1. Tom Ross ·

    Why do you have 2009 smartphones at 190 million? Gartner shows 172 million, Canalys 166 million. Same for 2008.

  2. asymco ·

    I was using Morgan Stanley estimates. I may revise down. Stay tuned for a new article.

  3. asymco ·

    I updated the data to also include the number of total wireless subscribers world-wide and the number of 3G subscribers sold every year 2007 to 2013.

    https://fnayeri-ulqtb.wpcomstaging.com/2010/06/14/can-the-iphone-r...

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