Apple sold more iOS devices in 2011 than all the Macs it sold in 28 years

218 comments

1. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 15:02

   Horace, you continue to impress with your unique insights.  Thank you, and keep up the good work!

2. The CW · 16 February 2012, 15:09

   Fascinating that the iPad has a trajectory equal to the iPhone, a device that has been offered since 2007. This is the upside of making the iPad what the critics called it when it was introduced "just a big iPhone." Since people know what an iPhone offers they know what an iPad offers. There's no honeymoon period. It is launched as a mature, tested product with a huge community of developers supporting it.

   Breathtaking.

3. bennomatic · 16 February 2012, 15:13

   What strikes me is how nicely each product's trajectory dovetails into the previous one's.  It seems like you could overlay the end of the Apple ][ line with the beginning of the Mac line, then the tail end of the Mac line with the beginning of the iPod touch line, then that one into the iPhone line, and that into the iPad line, and get one very nice smooth and predictable curve.

   Obviously the end total if you laid them out like that would not have any meaning in and of itself, but what that does say is that it appears that there is a long history of lessons learned about product development, managing markets, and logistics--among other things--that have led seamlessly from one platform to the next.

   The mind reels as to what might follow the iPad.

4. Brant Arthur · 16 February 2012, 15:22

   Thanks Horace. This highlights the scale of the opportunity for devices that go everywhere with us and cost much less than a computer. When you think of the Mac (especially 10-20 years ago) and original iPods, they do so many fewer jobs than an iOS devices today - which scratch almost any itch due to their design and the appstore. Hard to see dedicated devices having large sales in this space going forward (Nintendo DS, Blackberry and even the P&S Camera). There's just a huge desire out there for iOS and I don't think anyone knows how big the vacuum is.

5. Nick · 16 February 2012, 15:29

   type in the title...

6. Brant Arthur · 16 February 2012, 15:33

   Nice comments on the dovetail. You also see the increase in the growth rate of the Mac that happens around the same point that iOS is introduced. Looking at the Mountain Lion preview today, will be interesting to see the halo effect of iOS vs. iPod (I think Tim made some comments about this the other day).

7. Jeff Kibuule · 16 February 2012, 15:52

   We should keep in mind that the iPhone is cheaper than almost all Macs. I would give more credit to the iPad line due to the creation of a product in a category that didn't exist before, plus it's selling at a rate faster than the iPhone when it first launched.

8. Horace Dediu · 16 February 2012, 15:54

   The iPad's trajectory is much steeper than the iPhone's.

9. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 16:06

   iPad is just a low-end Mac, not really a new category. People are buying iPads instead of low-end PC's. What the original iMac was to 1998, iPad is to 2010. Both are a consumer-focused Mac for half the price of a nerd-focused Mac. Both caused nerd outrage and both became the world's most popular consumer PC in no time at all.

   There are more consumers than producers. More people read books than write books. The consumer-focused stuff should outsell te production-focused stuff (Macs) by 10:1 or more.

10. The CW · 16 February 2012, 16:12

    currently? It looks like iPhone is adding about the 75 - 100 million devices over a one year period. iPad isn't there yet is it?

11. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 16:13

    We used to use 1 Mac to make millions of CD's for millions of CD players. Now, we use 1 Mac to make millions of downloads for millions of iOS devices. Of course there should be many more production systems than consumption systems. We consume more than we make in our lives, even of you are Steven King or somebody prolific.

12. r.d · 16 February 2012, 16:21

    100% vs. 260% (ipad)

13. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 16:21

    But the key thing was that iPad is not a big iPhone, except when running iPhone apps, which almost nobody ever does. iPad has full-size PC apps.

    iPad is just a PC, so people know what to do with it. Consumers get one and go facebook.com and they just use it like they would any PC. With iPhone, Apple first had to explain why you want a Web browser in your phone. People did not understand what it was for.

14. Asymco · 16 February 2012, 16:23

    "sold it" in the title should be "it sold"

15. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 16:59

    Key to this is Apple isn't scared to cannablise its own products. How many firms would have put the best iPod in their new product?

16. Amandeep Jawa · 16 February 2012, 17:09

    I'd love to see the non-touch iPods or at least the iPod Classic & iPod Nanos in that graph...

17. Chris · 16 February 2012, 17:12

    Remember what Cook said as a reason to IPad's trajectory. It's because it stands on the ecosystem that went before it. Apple integrated approach kills.

    The next product one would imagine would have an even steeper trajectory, that is, a faster rate of adoption.

18. Nik Gervae · 16 February 2012, 17:35

    It's cool to see each new product's slope increasing, but it's also interesting to see the Mac's slope curving up sharply in recent years. It may well catch up to the iPhone and iPad (adjusted perhaps for price).

19. Bob Forsberg · 16 February 2012, 18:24

    All-in-one iMacs with large displays will replace the way we watch TV or TVs will replace computers as we know them. I'm betting on 32"-46" iMacs with 4K resolution.

20. Gavin Costello · 16 February 2012, 18:27

    Horace, Would you agree the sales numbers for relatively cheap consumer focused devices in a consumer driven market should be expected to out sell high value, expensive items in a market where most people didn't have reason to buy?If so, do you think comparing the initial growth of iOS devices to the growth of PC's from the time when Windows 95 launched/the internet became widely available might be a more interesting comparative measure?

21. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 18:33

    You have to buy a Mac Pro to be productive?

    Meanwhile, the iPad is an entirely different platform than any Mac:  Different hardware, different OS. Some may have been sold to people who would otherwise have bought a cheap Air or Mini, but I don't think you can argue that people buy iPads as Mac substitutes.  Not 55 million people.

22. VrDrew · 16 February 2012, 18:45

    Tim Cook touched on the "halo" effect in his Goldman Sachs remarks, suggesting that in overseas markets, because so many people used their phones as ad-hoc MP3 players they hadn't gotten much follow-on business from the iPod. However, once the iPhone appeared, it spurred a growth in Mac sales in the same markets.

    Which makes me wonder about  Apple's prospects. Given the fact that Apple seems to enjoy extremely high levels of customer satisfaction, surely this suggests that a large fraction of the ~ 300 million people who've bought - and are very satisfied with - an iPhone are at least going to consider buying a Mac or iPad for their next computer purchase.

23. Pauldcamp1 · 16 February 2012, 19:03

    Horace

    Thanks. I consider the milestone of one billion Apple microprocessor based device sales to be significant historically, and expect it next year (2013). If all iPods are included, when would you project this event?

24. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 19:17

    Made me think of China. In China, iPods didn't sell well at all, as many Chinese opted for their cellphone. Recently Mac sales have taken off in China, and that can only be due to iPhone and iPad sales halos, just like Tim said.

25. ITalian Pro · 16 February 2012, 19:25

    As usual my attempt of a contribute is only  formal, because the content you give us is -seriously- invaluable.

    In the Goldmann-Sachs transcript (as in the streaming from the Apple site at 20:18") we have "It took us about 5 years to sell 22 million iPods, and it took us about 3 years to sell that many iPhones".  But in MacDailyNews live notes we read " It took us 22 years to sell our first 55 million Macs. It took us 5 years to sell our first 55 million iPods. It took us 3 years to sell our first 55 million iPhones. It took us less than 7 quarters, 1 3/4 years, to sell our first 55 million iPads", the same numbers we can see also in your table. I'm missing something? Or perhaps a typo in written notes of TC?

26. Anonymous · 16 February 2012, 19:45

    I thought that in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make. At least that's what Paul McCartney said.

27. Brant Arthur · 16 February 2012, 19:58

    Agreed, I think web and email are the core of any mac product, but beyond that people are doing very different things with macs and iOS devices. The earliest macs were almost entirely about doing the job of producing something, while iPods were the first Apple product to be entirely about consuming something. iOS continues to be consuming while the reasons for having a Mac are mostly about producing (at least in my world).

28. FalKirk · 16 February 2012, 20:46

    Excellent observation.

    “If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will.”-Steve Jobs

29. FalKirk · 16 February 2012, 20:51

    Right now - and presumably for the next 10 years - every Apple product stands on the shoulders of iCloud.

    And if one has any doubts, they need only reference the iCloud integration that is coming to the Mac via Mountain Lion.

30. FalKirk · 16 February 2012, 21:30

    "iPad is just a low-end Mac, not really a new category."-JohnDoey

    You are profoundly mistaken. The iPad is a new category.

    Imagine two circles that slightly overlap. One is labeled "everything one can do extremely well on a notebook computer". The other is labeled "everything one can do extremely well on a tablet". Where the two overlap, the buyer will have to decide which device is right for them.

    It is where the circles do not overlap - where the tablet does things extremely well and the notebook does not - that makes the tablet a separate category. Two quick examples:

    - A realtor moving from home to home and room to room - giving sales presentations, researching the internet, transferring documents, communicating with their clients and home office. They might also own a notebook computer, but they would be hard pressed to use a notebook computer for these purposes. Only the tablet's unique combination of a small, flat form factor, combined with a simplified touch interface, fits the bill.

    - Pilots. Have you noticed that major airlines are adopting tablets as a way to display their in-flight maps? Technically you COULD do that with a notebook computer...but nobody ever did.

    The number of similar examples that I could provide is curtailed only by the limitations of my imagination.

    The point is that none of these people are substituting the iPad for their computer. Instead, they are using the tablets unique properties to do jobs that no computer was capable of properly doing before.

    That, my friend, is a new category. And its affect on the world of computing as we now know it will be far reaching.

31. FalKirk · 16 February 2012, 21:37

    Excellent observation.

    It seems pretty clear that no matter what Apple device you purchase - whether it be an iPod Touch, an iPhone, an iPad or a Mac - that you're much more likely to buy one of Apple's other products the next time you need/want one. And with iCloud tying the whole experience together, this appears to be even more likely in the future.

32. FalKirk · 16 February 2012, 21:44

    "it's also interesting to see the Mac's slope curving up sharply in recent years."-Nik Gervae

    I was thinking the same thing. The iPhone and the iPad totally bypassed Microsoft's desktop monopoly. And with Microsoft flailing in smart phones, if they don't hit a home run in tablets, their Windows kingdom - including their desktop monopoly - could come crashing down around their ears.

    And then - in one of the least likely comeback stories of our times - the Mac - the lowly Mac - could at long last become a majority player in the desktop marketplace.

33. Terry · 17 February 2012, 00:19

    Horace

    Very good chart, however I created a similar chart, eliminating Macs primarily because Mac sales did not become significant till many years later. Also, I did not include iPod touch numbers because Apple did not break these out from their iPod numbers. http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/iphonevsipod/

    I also did a Halo Effect chart that  can be found at: http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/haloeffect/

34. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:24

    Look at the graph. Why would the Halo effect even matter anymore? Whether or not there's a halo is a 1M unit question for the Mac business. Meanwhile they're selling 60M+ iPads a year, and 100M iPhones...

    In particular what makes me excited and Apple understands this better than anyone is the iPad. Phones can only grow so much - Nokia sold 400M units a year at its peak and Apple is close enough to that. But in tablets... they could replace a significant portion of computer sales in the near future. It's a market where Apple has a huge headstart and very little competition. The iPad could be the MS-DOS PC of the future, and more, with everyone having 2, 3, and 4 of these in the house. I am getting an iPad 3 so my younger son can have the iPad 2, and my older already has an iPad 1. My wife needs a new computer so I am thinking about getting her an iPad too. The iPad is where the crazy potential lies...

    it's an iOS world from now on.

35. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:29

    Apple's aim is to increasingly make the desktop marketplace irrelevant.

    Maybe we'll end up in a future world where desktop PCs are once again a domain for business, and in the home we have a TV, a games console, and a couple of iPads and iPhones.

    Right now iCloud isn't good enough to really replace the digital hub that the home PC has become. But once that problem is solved... why would anyone need a PC?

    I guess it won't be as radical as that but still a future where most desktops are gone, and only tablets, and macbook - air like laptops remain looks very likely.

36. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:31

    Sure, iCloud is the new digital hub. Where all your data lies. It doesn't work yet but it might very well work one or two years from now.

    I think there'd be a market for a home cloud to be honest. WiFi router + large hard disk that plays nice with all my iDevices would be the ticket. As the only reason my wife needs a computer is that her data is on it. And it's too much to put on an iPad.

37. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:45

    Even if (as you say) there is some sort of cap for phones, Apple is way short of that. Even if 400M is a limit, they are about 300M short per year. Given the growing market and increasing consolidation, Apple has a long way to go in phones. I would agree that iPads might have even more headroom but phones will drive Apple's growth for the foreseeable future.

38. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:48

    I doubt the game console will remain as a standalone device.

39. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 01:54

    Honest question: would anyone want to use a computer with a 42" screen, are you going to have a desk with a keyboard on it underneath the 42" - 50" iMac in the middle of your living room?

40. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 02:13

    I think the fact that Macs took so long to become significant in number is one of the points of the article, as it serves to emphasize the remarkable growth of iOS devices.

    As far as I know, apple has said iPod touches were half of iPod sales for the last couple of years. Apple also has given total iOS device sales milestones out, and Horace was able to subtract the known iPhones & iPad totals to derive an approximate iPod touch number.

41. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 02:19

    Yeah maybe. I added it in there to cover one aspect of current home PC use - gaming. I personally love iPad gaming but for hard core gamers, WoW players and so on, it's not sufficient.

    These people will be using either game consoles or maybe a new iTV ... hmmm... given that it would be very easy to do I wonder if Apple isn't going to sneak a high end gfx card in their iTV. Just in case gaming takes off.. that it will be iOS based is no question. iOS + huge screen + high end gfx card = game console? I am sure they're not going to market it as such but also sure iOS games will work on the device...

42. Stas · 17 February 2012, 02:27

    So, Android devices also beat all Apple sales in last 28 years?

43. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 03:03

    Horace, typo in the title. Should be... 'it sold in 28 years.'.

    Gruber has copy and pasted the error to DF.

    Amazing stat!

44. twilightmoon · 17 February 2012, 03:07

    Not as a single unified platform, no. It's not even certain there is a single, cohesive version of the platform that did.

    I would really like a chart showing the scale and success of the various flavored of Android and more importantly where they are successful. Are there really that many iOS comparable Androids out there? We only get Android figures as a lump sum figure as is all Android are created equal, or are at least similar, and they are not!

45. Mail · 17 February 2012, 05:37

    I agree - why would anyone want an iMac in the living room as the main TV device? iMac's are desktop devices designed for close-up work with a keyboard/mouse/trackpad, and that's where they will stay for the great majority of people. Now, a large screen Apple TV that runs iOS is another matter - there may be a market for that, but it will be a much smaller, higher-value market than iPad's.

46. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 07:08

    Who knows? Google won't release definitive sales figures.

47. Kiranna · 17 February 2012, 07:29

    Except for one thing...it has not even been 2 years for the iPad. How quickly we forget--the iPad was launched in Jan 2010 yes, but it shipped in APRIL 2010. Which means 20 months. Sorry to be a nit-picker on an otherwise outstanding series by Horace.

48. Aryu Gaetu · 17 February 2012, 07:58

    I have two immediate thoughts:

    First, comparing Apple's iPods and iMacs is like comparing a candy store's gum balls and candy bars. "We sold 1,000 gum balls (at 1 cent each) in one afternoon, and it took us 2 years to sell 1,000 candy bars (at $1 each)." Two completely different products, markets and prices resulting in good trivia, but useless comparisons. The analysis should be in their commonality, such as their resultant profit over time.

    Second, find someone that can create professional charts. There is no such thing as "0 million", and it is very awkward to start an axis at 1 when its range is 0 to 28. How did this get past all of the editors?

49. Tony · 17 February 2012, 08:09

    A large screen iMac with an iPad as the keyboard/mouse replacement?

    I have my iMac in my living room hooked up to the tv via HDMI, using a wireless keyboard and mouse. It's sweet, being able to flip from tv to computer & internet is so good. I can only imagine how much better it will be when Apple have put it together instead of me.

50. Steven Noyes · 17 February 2012, 08:09

    No indication of that. Using Google's numbers and Apple's numbers there are still many more iOS devices than Android devices. Add in the iPods and Macs and Android is still far far behind.

51. Steven Noyes · 17 February 2012, 08:13

    I'd be tempted. I use a 27" and 30" setup and still run out of screen space at times. An 8mp 40" display would be sweet.

52. The CW · 17 February 2012, 08:23

    Yes. There are two ways of looking at it. As a percentage or as the raw number of devices sold per year. As a percentage, their first year was an infinite growth rate over the 0% sold the previous year. What I was pointing out was the complete lack of ram up to sales volumes roughly equivalent to the iPhone. There's no curve. The number of devices added in the last year is similar to the number of devices added by a more mature product line. This is due, I was assuming, to the familiarity the consumer has with iOS.

53. Anon · 17 February 2012, 08:32

    Horace, FYI -  though it does credit you, you might want to check it.

    http://mashable.com/2012/02/17/apple-sold-ios-devices-2011/

54. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 08:34

    But there is not a 100x price difference in the products, so the analogy is irrelevant.

    The ASP of iphones and ipads is $600, whereas a mac is $1200.  I bet a touch is around $300.  So we are talking 2-4x in price.

    http://www.macrumors.com/2011/10/20/nearly-all-apple-hardware-costs-more-than-the-average-pc/

55. Horace Dediu · 17 February 2012, 08:37

    The PC is added in the version of the chart attached:

56. Chris Gemignani · 17 February 2012, 08:37

    @Aryu. Horace's charts are among the best on the web. You can quibble about formatting but the charts always tell a pointed story and display numbers accurately.

57. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 08:42

    As you mention, there are many reasons for the iPad's success, such as familiarity with the iPhone, lack of learning curve, etc.  However, to be clear, there are not two ways of looking at or interpreting trajectory as you suggest.  Horace's graph illustrates this perfectly.

58. Gavin Costello · 17 February 2012, 08:44

    Which year is Year 1?

59. Horace Dediu · 17 February 2012, 08:48

    Apple sold about 410 million devices (iOS and iPod) as of end of last year. My guess is over 260 million will be sold in 2012 so one billion will be crossed in 2013.

60. S# · 17 February 2012, 08:53

    Varies from product to product. Year 1 will be 2007 for the iPhone, 2010 for the iPad while the same for the PC would arguably be 1981

61. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 09:06

    The range of x-axis is 1 to 28. If you included 0, all it would tell us is that zero products had been sold zero years after launch... which isn't useful.

    There is certainly such a thing as "0 million". It's 1,000,000 less than "1 million".

62. twilightmoon · 17 February 2012, 09:12

    Some would have use for such a thing but it's certainly not a msinstream device.

    With Air Sharing all iPhones Macs and IPads could push video to such a device so there is no need for it to have a keyboard from Apple's point of view.

63. Horace Dediu · 17 February 2012, 09:19

    The iPod took less than 5 years (18 quarters) to reach 55 million units. You can see it in the amended chart attached:

64. The CW · 17 February 2012, 09:24

    If two products are both selling 50 items per month they have the same trajectory regardless of when they were launched. they may have drastically different growth curves.

65. Horace Dediu · 17 February 2012, 10:21

    Very nice.

66. Kizedek · 17 February 2012, 10:25

    First, Macs don't cost two orders of magnitude greater than iPads.

    Secondly, while they may represent "two completely different products, markets and prices", they aren't *that* different. Not like comparing Samsung TVs, dumb phones, ships, microwaves and refrigerators.

    Thirdly, it isn't useless trivia, for any number of reasons... depends what you want to make observations about. Perhaps:

    a) Apple is able to respond to new markets, create products with global appeal and release them on a global scale.

    b) as the traditional PC market is shrinking, Apple is not only selling increasing numbers of Macs into it, but redfining the market in the process.

    c) as PC companies come and go, Apple has been able to create synergies between different product families and services that add value to each of them.

    d) developers and startups can look at this and see where to put their best efforts.

    e) while everyone has counted Apple out of the PC "race" (one in which they are still gaining ground), they have changed the game yet again -- and here we can talk about orders of magnitude legitimately.

    f) as mobile computing grows in popularity and becomes the norm, we see new life in "personal computing" that makes it far more personal than ever. We see Apple extending their old vision of what computing could be into new areas with new devices and input paradigms -- rather than there being "no comparison" with Macs, we see Apple has produced something special at the right time.

    g) rather than merely jumping on another band wagon like competitors jumping on netbooks, tablets or ultrabooks... we see Apple has learned how to be both competitive and profitable at the same time. More than ever with the Mac, and astoundingly so with the iPhone and iPad.

    h) getting the software, infrastructure, cloud, services all lined up, and developers on board, really makes a difference. It would be interesting to compare PC makers' sales of their tablets or ultrabooks to the Mac. That might be really similar curve. No good software or ecosystem in place, and you get a slow rate of adoption. Other than one being a gumball and one being a candybar, maybe the adoption rates differ due to things along these lines.a

    ...there are lots of things you can think about when you see these things together that go far beyond trivia. Thanks, Horace.

67. Dale P · 17 February 2012, 10:34

    Well, the success of any great product for a company is measured in profits generated. I'd love to see the same chart showing cumulative profits per device category.

68. Horace Dediu · 17 February 2012, 10:43

    The data tracks full calendar years, so sales within a particular full calendar year. Year one for the iPad ended Dec 2010.

69. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 10:53

    "all the Macs it sold" should be "it sold Macs"

70. Sigh · 17 February 2012, 11:01

    @aryu one immediate thought: you're a dick.

71. bennomatic · 17 February 2012, 11:10

    The halo effect matters because computers are still important for certain types of tasks.  Anything where both a real keyboard and a large screen space--and the ability to view data from multiple applications simultaneously--are required needs a classic computer.  I use a computer all day for work that, at least in it's current state, could not be done on an iPad or similar device.  While it's possible that tablets will move towards being more flexible, it's also completely reasonable that these devices will remain separate, each fulfilling their own niche, just as big iron gave way to desktops which gave way to laptops, but some numbers of all devices still exist.

    So there will continue to be a need, and thus a market for "classic" computers.  While some companies continue to sell computers as a loss leader in order not to lose important business (HP, I'm looking at you!), Apple seems to be able to sell them profitably, so the halo effect is still very useful to the bottom line.

72. Woobert · 17 February 2012, 11:28

    PC in that graph starts in 1995 presumably because that's what you asked for (and based on the graph ending at 17 years past, 2012-17=1995)

73. Woobert · 17 February 2012, 11:31

    Whoa, I botched that!  It ends at 14 years after launch, so it's actually starting at 1998 :/

74. Swift2 · 17 February 2012, 12:04

    Right. Friends come over and watch Netflix. They see Boxee and think, "That's the way TV should be." I have the Apple TV and a 2006 Intel Mac mini. It still takes some work, patching in, getting my Bluetooth keyboard out and so on-- everybody's TV is a wiring mess. Somebody who made a device we could do Netflix, and other streaming services, and seamlessly switch to FaceTime and HBO and a look at the weather forecast... who put the Apple touch to it... could do us a real service and make a bundle of money. I hope somebody's thinking of that, huh?

75. Andy Assareh · 17 February 2012, 12:11

    When you look at what consumers are hiring these devices to do, we see that mobile devices are gradually taking more and more tasks away from traditional PC's. So this is a very relevant comparison.

    Also, for the indication of platform strength and scale.

76. Dru Richman · 17 February 2012, 12:12

    Two words - 1969 Mets!  8^D

77. Terry · 17 February 2012, 12:27

    My charts do not contain "estimates". They only include actual numbers as reported by Apple. General comments made by Apple, to me, are not real data and therefore should not be mixed in with real data.

78. Terry · 17 February 2012, 12:29

    Thanks, Horace.

79. leicaman · 17 February 2012, 12:58

    As much as I love my iPad (and I plan to get an iPad 3) it could never replace my Mac Pro. But then I wouldn't have that unless I was a serious computer user. I'm definitely thinking next year a MacBook Pro is my next purchase other than the iPad 3. Thunderbolt is going to change the landscape. It will be interesting to see its effect on Apple and other PC makers as it becomes ubiquitous.

80. leicaman · 17 February 2012, 13:00

    4K resolution is not going to be a big thing when it takes a 25 foot screen to really see the difference.

81. tomelgin · 17 February 2012, 14:25

    What is year 1 for the PC line, and what year does the last dot on the PC line represent?  A web search for "worldwide PC sales" gives many sources saying they were well over 200million per year in 2010 and 2011 -- way off the scale of this chart (even if you subtract out Macs and whatever share Linux/others have).

    Based on other data I can find it looks like the PC line goes from 1981 (when the IBM PC launched) up to 1994 and then stops, whereas the Apple product lines all go from product launch up to 2011.  If so, this gives an idea of the growth rate of PC sales since IBM's launch, which I think was Horace's goal, but stopping the line in 1994 is very misleading if the viewer is thinking about cumulative sales to date.

82. Pat · 17 February 2012, 14:46

    Most iPhones are sold with a 2-year contract, whose actual cost is actually much higher than that of a Mac.

83. Joel Jambon · 17 February 2012, 15:46

    Was a lifelong Windows user since the 3.1 days, but was tired of having to reboot my computer at least twice a day to expect it to run smoothly.  And then buy one every other year to keep up with current stuff.  Awful user experience.

    Switched to an iMac in (PowerPC chip, Tiger) in 2005.  Best decision ever.  It just worked, no muss, no fuss.  Vowed never to use a microsoft product again and I haven't.  I had a great feeling about Apple.

    That iMac is still running and useable at a friend's house.  Sold it to them when I got my current Intel Mac in 2008.  Plus a mac mini. Plus an iphone and two ipads....

    So, yes, c'mon everybody, make the iMac a player!

    Or are we going to live in a world where everyone syncs their iOS devices to a Windows machine?

84. addicted4444 · 17 February 2012, 16:16

    The best part about this is that it lays to rest the completely inane argument that only "Apple cultists" buy Apple products.

85. David Leppik · 17 February 2012, 16:48

    Sure it would be useful.  With that additional data point, you could visually tell whether or not the iPad line is an exponential curve.

86. George Rose · 17 February 2012, 20:50

    Next time use a "semi-log" graph to give things a little more meaning. Nuf said!

87. Anonymous · 17 February 2012, 21:27

    Kizedek, a lot of good points.

    Additionally the number and accretion of iOS devices sold is indicative of the growth of users within the iOS "walled garden" or ecosystem. At this rate the total number iOS devices will soon reach a billion.

    I wonder how many iTunes credit card holders account holders a billion iOS devices would equate to? I would guess possibly between 500 to 700 million, assuming that a lot of people will own two or more devices? Families on one iTune account might share many more devices?

    Apple did once announce the number of credit card account holders they had, but I can't remember when or the number? Does anybody?

    Anyway Apple look to be well on their way to around 500 million credit card account holders in a couple of years and a billion within around 4 to 5 years.

    That is monstrous!

    Imagine the purchasing power of a billion credit card holders. Another huge opportunity for Apple: electronic payments, even banking, other retail products and services, in addition to Apps, songs, movies, TV programmes, subscriptions to magazine and newspapers,  iBooks, iBook Author publishing, textbooks U Tunes - the list goes on and on!

88. Anon. · 17 February 2012, 22:46

    Uh oh... looks like iPhone sales roughly follow (5.5M x 2^t) - 5.5M where t is in years... so after 28 years of iPhone sales, they will have sold 1,500 trillion iPhones, meaning every person on earth will have to own something like 15,000+ iPhones.

    Good thing we know it's exponential while there's still time to act!!!

89. Terry · 17 February 2012, 23:09

    As of 6 June 2011 there are over 225 million iTunes accounts.http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/itunes/

90. Shameer Mulji · 18 February 2012, 00:54

    Mobile devices are taking more and more basic or consumer-level tasks away from traditional PC's.  Tasks such as using Photoshop, high-end video / audio editing, CAD, etc. will still need the traditional PC for many years to come.

91. Shameer Mulji · 18 February 2012, 04:34

    Well during the Goldman Sach interview a few days ago, Tim Cooke did say iCloud was not a product / service but a strategy for the next decade or more.  So no doubt iCloud is huge for Apple.

92. Shameer Mulji · 18 February 2012, 04:36

    i can't speaking for everyone but iCloud works excellent for me.

    But I agree with you on the private home cloud product.  Imagine an OSX home server and through the use if iCloud services you can remotely access your home server on your devices.

93. Anonymous · 18 February 2012, 04:56

    Terry, Great Stats, Many thanks

    WOW. 225 m accounts already. So I underestimated the ratio of accounts to devices.

    Apple could reach 500m accounts in around 18 months!

94. jawbroken · 18 February 2012, 09:33

    I'm not sure why so many people post this sort of advice without any sort of explanation of their reasoning. In what way would using a semi-log axis help demonstrate the point being made in this article? Seems to me like it would only obfuscate the difference in growth rates that is the central point.

95. Anonymous · 18 February 2012, 16:17

    Apple sold more grains of sand in 2011 than it sold of planets in 28 years!

    Er...um...not all units are created equal. That's all I have to say about this "insight."

    Actually, no, the other fallacy lies in ignoring how ready a market is to adopt new technology. They weren't so ready in the 70s obviously, as they are in this millennium. Every single electronics device would sell better this decade than in 1970. Just stating the obvious and all.

96. jawbroken · 18 February 2012, 20:32

    Neither of those things are fallacies.

97. Anonymous · 19 February 2012, 02:18

    Nice...

    Doesn't change anything I said.

98. jawbroken · 19 February 2012, 04:49

    Sure, but nobody seems to have made either of the statements that you are arguing with.

99. Carlos · 19 February 2012, 22:10

    Dude!

100. Jeff · 19 February 2012, 23:49

     Joel,

     My experience was similar to yours.  I was a pc/windows user since the beginning.  Never bought an Apple product until 2 years ago when I bought the iMac for my wife, who loved it.  Then last May I bought iPad2.  NOW I GET IT!

     I bought the stock within weeks of buying the iPad.  I think tablets and smart phones already are, and will continue to create a sea-change in mobile computing.  My next computer will most definitely be a Mac of somekind.

     Interestingly, my 73 year old mother and my 10 year old daughter are planning on getting iPad's .   My Mom HATES the recent windows version and I can only imagine her iPad experience will pull her into Mac World too.

     Apple products have a lot of room for growth in all their markets.  I think this story has many more years to play out.  Fun to watch.   They are executing on a lot of fronts...

101. Jeff · 19 February 2012, 23:53

     I was not in the market for a computer at all.  I have 3.  I wanted an tablet.  I didn't buy it instead of low-end PC.   I'm sure I'm not the only one.

102. Anonymous · 21 February 2012, 14:27

     CW: To be clear, I understand what you are trying to say, I simply disagree with it. Comparing rate of sales for a new product versus a mature product later in it's life cycle is not very meaningful. When discussing sales trajectories for any given product line, you compare from launch to (launch + n) intervals. This is commonly understood and again, it's how Horace rightfully demonstrated in his graph.

103. Peterbriers · 20 March 2012, 19:14

     No, it doesn't. It shows Apple is becoming increasingly better at hyping their (good) products.

104. Arorts2 · 28 March 2012, 18:38

     Not obvious except if your are blind. Try to google other products with steeper volume rate adoption. Good Luck! :D

105. Liliana Mercado · 26 April 2012, 23:15

     'cept Macs were not released in the 70s, they came in the 80s (1984), and certainly not at $666.66. ;)  It sold for over $2,000.  If Apple had done things right from the beginning, they would have dominated the computer industry.

106. Liliana Mercado · 26 April 2012, 23:18

     It shows that Apple is a hell of a great cell phone company. ex-Mac user for 1 year now, used Macs for 20 years.

107. Александр Сидоров · 4 June 2012, 05:48

     Great. How many Android devices?

108. Ola · 13 June 2013, 15:06

     Who cares about this platform? It's just too closed-up. And, there's something about the soul of their design - as beautiful as it seems, it suggests to me that it lacks the potential that Microsoft Windows has, even if that potential has presently not been developed to the point that Mac's is.

     I prefer Windows. It's more like life. Mac tries too much to appear serious.

109. Mobisoft Infotech · 18 December 2013, 00:48

     Great Info. Thanks for your effort. Appreciate it.

     http://mobisoftinfotech.com/iphone/iphone-application-development.php

110. mbp2011 · 10 March 2014, 11:13

     Maybe it's because Apple is selling DEFECTIVE MacBooks that don't even last 2 years. action.mbp2011.com

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114. ayatali · 16 June 2014, 13:53

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118. fareeda · 21 June 2014, 15:42

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119. ayatali · 3 July 2014, 07:06

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