Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

Horace Dediu

  1. Shocker: Netbook sales slow down

    Research · 6 comments

    The results all but confirmed a sudden slowdown in netbook sales in the early part of the year and suggested the business may actually be on the decline. Intel didn't directly explain the shift, but an ongoing recovery from the recession and a more mature market are likely to give more buying power and greater interest in faster notebooks, especially following the addition of mobile Core i3, i5 and i7 chips.

    The trend away from netbooks is likely to continue as Intel raised its profit margin estimates for the whole year from a range of 58 to 64 percent earlier to between 62 and 66 cents.

    Source: Electronista

    A tip of the hat to John Gruber for compiling this list:

    Daring Fireball: Apple Netbook Claim Chowder.

    14 October 2008, Doug Aamoth at CrunchGear: “Five Reasons Why an Apple Netbook Is a No-Brainer”:

    When asked today about the possibility of an Apple netbook, Steve Jobs said something to the effect of, “The market is just getting started — we’ll see how it goes.”

    Huh? Here’s how the netbook market’s going, Steve: pretty much every major computer company has a netbook but you. Apple’s a prime candidate for a netbook, too.

    20 January 2009, Brian Caulfield at Forbes: “Apple’s Real Problem: Netbooks:"

    The real problem is how Apple’s portfolio of expensive gear — particularly notebooks — will fare as the recession starts to bite.

    21 January 2009, Brian X. Chen at Wired Gadget Lab: “Apple Still Oblivious to Netbook Opportunity”.

    18 March 2009, Shane O’Neill at PC World: “Recession Breathes Life Into Windows PCs as Apple Gasps for Air”:

    At this point, I’m going to stop asking when Apple will acknowledge these dark days we live in because I think the answer is never. Maybe Apple should just be a bull market company. When times are lean, it should pack up like a traveling carnival or disappear like a baseball team in winter and not come back until everybody’s rich and happy again.

    24 March 2009, Scott Moritz at TheStreet.com: “Apple’s Netbook Foray Will Flop”

    Nonetheless, design hubris and slumping sales will cause Apple to tap a hot segment of computer market.

    19 August 2009, Charles Moore at The Apple Blog: “Lack of Netbook, Price Hurting Apple in This Year’s Back-to-School Market”.

  2. Asymco's AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates

    Research

    Deagol estimates 12,594 2.77

    via Deagol's AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates.

    In the spirit of Deagol and Turley Muller here are my estimates for the quarter:

    3mo ending Mar-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
    -------------------   -------   ------
    Apple guidance         11,200     2.12
    Analysts consensus     11,960     2.44
    asymco estimates 12,357 2.60

    asymco Revenue breakdown:
    Mac        3,918 ( 3.01M @ $1,300)
    iPhone     4,500 ( 7.50M @ $  600)
    iPod       1,652 (11.00M @ $  150)
    Music      1,206
    Software     689
    Periph       393
    --------  ------
    Total     12,357

    Income statement:

    Revenue   12,357
    COGS       7,458
    GM         4,899
    OpEx       1,533
    OpInc      3,366
    OI&E          50
    Pre-tax    3,416
    Tax        1,025
    NetInc     2,391
    Shrs.        920
    EPS         2.60

  3. 95.7% of devices connecting to Boingo's airport Wi-Fi network are Apple devices

    Research

    The iPhone represents nearly 90% of all non-laptop connections in Boingo’s airports. The iPad registered 5.4% of all device connections, while Android tallied 2.5%. Blackberry phones and iPod Touch MP3 players accounted for less than 2% each of total visits. Windows Mobile was less than 1%.

    via MacDailyNews - Boingo Wireless: Apple's iPad surpasses Android, Blackberry and Windows Mobile in four days.

    Remarkable statistics, through a narrow sampling.  The above data represents all Wi-Fi enabled non-laptop devices in Boingo’s managed network, which includes 58 airports, the Washington State Ferries, and several sporting arenas and convention centers.

  4. Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks?

    Research · 1 comment

    “Notwithstanding anything else in this Agreement, Device Data may not be provided or disclosed to a third party without Apple’s prior written consent. Accordingly, the use of third party software in Your Application to collect and send Device Data to a third party for processing or analysis is expressly prohibited.”

    via Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks? | Peter Kafka | MediaMemo | AllThingsD.

    Not to worry, Eric. Android revenues will make up for AdMob's price tag.

    Oh wait...

  5. App download rate steady above 10 million per day

    Research

    The App download rate increased to a record 10,753,000 per day during the last 90 days.  This remains below the peak reported iTunes music rate of 12 million per day in the fall of 2009, but above the more recent rate of 8.5 million per day reported in March.

    The download rates for iTunes are reported to have fallen as tiered pricing has been introduced while App download rates continue to increase.

  6. Time to Download 4 Billion Apps: 21 months

    Research

    Last week's announcement of "well over" 4 billion apps downloaded came 21 months after the App Store opened on iTunes.  To give a perspective on how fast that is, 4 billion songs took 41 months to sell on the iTunes Music Store.

    The graph below shows the last actual data provided on both the App Store and the Music store downloads (circled) plotted from time of launch.

    It also shows a curve-fit forecast of each store's downloads.  If the growth persists, 10 billion apps could be shifted in 28 months post launch, which is around November of this year.