Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

Nota Bene

News Commentary from Asymco's Horace Dediu.

  1. Apple’s China smartphone sales jump 23% as overall market fell 4% to start 2026

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Acceleration

    Apple reported a robust 23% year-on-year increase in iPhone sales in China during the first nine weeks of 2026, significantly outperforming the broader market amid a general downturn. While several Android manufacturers raised prices due to elevated memory chip costs, Apple bucked the trend.

    Overall smartphone shipments in China declined 4% year-on-year during the January-to-early-March period, according to Counterpoint Research data released Thursday.

    Source: MacDailyNews

    NB: That's almost the whole quarter in the bag.…

    Growth in China was outstanding last quarter and Apple signaled that the growth would continue. Now we see the dots connecting. Still impressed and perplexed by why this particular model became so popular.

     

     

  2. Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook

    Nota Bene

    Supercomputer

    Data-center AI model on MacBook: Why it matters for Apple

    The implications for Apple’s competitive position in AI are significant. The dominant narrative that Apple is behind — that Siri is a joke compared to ChatGPT, that Apple Intelligence is underwhelming, that the company missed the generative AI wave — could be misleading. Woods’s experiment suggests Apple may have quietly built the right hardware all along.

    Apple silicon’s unified memory architecture lets CPU and GPU share the same high-bandwidth memory pool. And that looks like precisely the design needed for the flash-streaming technique Apple’s own researchers described. No other mainstream laptop platform has this. So MacBook Pro isn’t just a laptop that can run AI on the side. It may be the most capable personal AI computer on the market.

    While competitors race to build billion-dollar data centers, the most powerful AI model you can run might soon be the one already sitting in your bag. Apple’s chip lead, combined with techniques like these, could make local AI on Mac — private, fast and free from cloud subscriptions — a genuine reality far sooner than anyone expected.

    As Willison noted, the quality tradeoffs are still being evaluated. But we can’t overstate the breakthrough in simply getting it running. The AI race might not be won in a data center after all.

    (via Cult of Mac - Your source for the latest Apple news, rumors, analysis, reviews, how-tos and deals.)

    Source: and it changes everything via Cult of Mac

    NB: In a recent interview I said that the original iPhone was very weak...

    ...compared with today's iPhone or Mac. But that initial processor was considered significantly powerful and was in use by millions. I've never seen hardware or software not commoditize. The challenge is never that it's not powerful enough, it's how do you protect your business model when everyone is able to do the exact same thing?

     

     

  3. Tim Cook: Apple just had best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers

    Nota Bene

    And it's not even Christmas

    Apple's CEO Tim Cook today said the Mac just had its "best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers," which suggests that the new MacBook Neo has been a hit with customers buying their first laptops or switching from Windows.


    Apple released the MacBook Neo last Wednesday, March 11. In the ...

    Source: MacRumors

    NB: See my recent note on the history of the Mac. We need to wait to hear if the language of "half of customers new to the Mac" changes. The churn has just begun. It reminds one of the Mac v. PC ad campaign.

  4. Apple, Samsung Dominate 2025 List of Highest-shipping Models Across Regions

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Apple led in markets where premium leads

    Apple led in NAM, Europe and Asia-Pacific, while Samsung led in LATAM and MEA.Premium models led in NAM, Europe and APAC, while entry- to mid-tier models led in LATAM and MEA.

    In NAM, Apple’s iPhone 16 5G led the market. Samsung’s Galaxy A16 5G was the only Android device to feature in the top five, driven by volumes in the prepaid segment.

    Within APAC, Apple secured all the top five positions. All top five models in LATAM and MEA were 4G smartphones.

    Apple and Samsung dominated the list of highest-shipping models globally in 2025, with the two brands capturing the top two spots across major markets, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Monthly Shipment Tracker, 2025.

    However, regional variations did exist with premium models leading in North America (NAM), Europe, and Asia-Pacific (APAC), while entry- to mid-tier models led in Latin America (LATAM) and the Middle East and Africa (MEA).Top Five Highest-shipping Models by Region, 2025Source: Market Monitor Monthly Shipment Tracker, 2025

    Source: Counterpoint

    NB: Apple led the markets where premium was normative. This suggests that Apple still has opportunities in Latin America, Middle East and Africa. Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of this at a country level.

  5. Apple Is Way Behind in AI—and Still Making a Fortune From It: WSJ

    Nota Bene

    Distribution is hard, distribution is gold.

    Apple is on pace to surpass $1 billion in artificial-intelligence revenue this year, a tidy sum that demonstrates the company’s AI advantage even as it struggles to deliver an AI strategy of its own.

    That means they typically pay the App Store tax, roughly 30% of subscription fees in the first year and 15% a year thereafter, though rates vary by country. Generative AI apps paid Apple nearly $900 million in App Store fees in 2025, according to the analysis firm AppMagic.

    Three-fourths of the revenue Apple rakes in from GenAI apps in its App Store comes from ChatGPT, according to AppMagic. Next, at about 5%, is xAI’s Grok. Apple’s revenue from GenAI apps rose from about $35 million in January 2025 to a high of $101 million in August. Sales have fallen from their peak, partly because ChatGPT downloads have declined, according to the data.

    Source: Wall Street Journal

    NB: I always thought Apple would take 20% of all AI spending…

    …, but what the article fails to appreciate is that Apple is still way behind on Search and Social Media and Ride Hailing and a thousand other killer apps for the iPhone and yet it still profits from them. Apple is not "taxing" these services but offering distribution to their makers the same way a retailer is not "taxing" a brand by allowing their products in the store.

    But the other buried lede here is that $1 billion for distributing AI to iPhone users is not a hugely impressive indicator of a great business. At best we're looking at $5 billion revenue run rate through iOS and maybe $10b across phones. It's not much for something with $1 trillion capex budget.

  6. Lobster Boil

    Nota Bene · 6 comments

    Om my God

    Makes you wonder: what is really going on here? Hope and madness. Whatever the reasons, I am fascinated with the very idea of OpenClaw, how it might be foretelling a future we are not seeing yet.


    OpenClaw is a free, open-source AI agent built by Austrian developer Peter Steinberger. It started as a weekend project in November 2025, originally called Clawdbot, went through a rename to Moltbot after a trademark complaint from Anthropic, and landed as OpenClaw at the end of January 2026.

    You connect it to whatever AI model you prefer. It runs on your own machine. You talk to it through the messaging apps you already use, including Slack, WhatsApp, Telegram, iMessage, and Discord. And then it does things. Typical chatbots answer questions. It acts. It clears your inbox, makes reservations, tracks your calendar, executes tasks on your behalf while you are doing something else.

    By March 2026, it had crossed 247,000 stars on GitHub. Steinberger has since been hired by OpenAI to work on personal agents, and the project has moved to a foundation. The lobster, as they say, has molted. Ironic, the movement’s Jesus has ceded control to his apostles.

    The Mac Mini has become the unofficial hardware of the OpenClaw moment. People are buying the Apple desktop with a single purpose: a dedicated machine to run their agent, separate from their main computer, connected to a free or cheap open-source model. The SF Standard called the Mac Mini bro the new matcha latte guy. Oy vey!

    Source: On my Om

    NB: Definitely worth reading this post. Om is always good for a zeitgeist check. He and I …

    …met a few times and we saw eye to eye. The Claw movement will be mainstream and I suspect it will be baked into MacOS so it can be trusted. It's brilliant but strictly early adopter lore right now. Still, selling a few million Mac Minis to run it shows Apple had the right product at the right time. (Bonus: why is a Mac chosen today for this when decades ago this was a job people would hire a PC for?)

  7. ‘No Near-Term Catalyst,’ KeyBanc on Apple Stock

    Nota Bene · 3 comments

    Difficult to draw firm conclusions

    Apple may not have a clear trigger to push the stock higher right now, according to top KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel. He reiterated a Sector Weight (Neutral) rating on the stock, saying recent spending data and current valuation leave limited room for near-term upside.

    KeyBanc’s consumer spending tracker showed indexed spending down 9% month over month in February, worse than the three-year average decline of about 4%. On a yearly basis, spending rose 4%, slightly above January’s 3% growth. Nispel said the data from January and February remains mixed, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about Apple’s demand this quarter.

    KeyBanc also updated its forecasts after Apple’s recent product launches. The firm now expects Apple’s Fiscal 2026 revenue to reach about $466.5 billion. It also raised its Fiscal 2026 earnings estimate to $8.52 per share and Fiscal 2027 earnings to $9.11 per share.
    For the second quarter of 2026, KeyBanc estimates revenue of about $108.7 billion, which would represent roughly 14% year-over-year growth.

    With Apple trading close to its historical valuation levels, Nispel said he does not see a “clear near-term catalyst” that could push the stock higher.

    Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL stock based on 15 Buys, nine Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. Furthermore, the average AAPL price target of $305.18 per share implies 17% upside potential.

    Source: TipRanks Financial

    NB: Near-term you say?…

    Why would near term catalysts matter unless you are a near-term investor/trader. The updates indicate a 14% increase in near-term but is the price too high? If so then call it on the pricing not on the pipeline.

     

     

  8. Tim Cook squashes retirement rumors, says he 'can't imagine life without Apple'

    Nota Bene

    Cupertinology

    Cook told ABC's "GMA" that reports he was preparing to step aside were a rumor and said he “can’t imagine life without Apple.”

    Asked about reports that he was preparing to step aside, Cook told ABC, "No, I didn't say that. I haven't said that. I love what I do deeply. Twenty-eight years ago, I walked into Apple, and I've loved every day of it since."

    Source: CNBC

    NB: Maybe he's been watching too much Severance.…

    I don't believe it's worth speculating on succession games. Apple is very well run and won't leave this transition to chance. I did entertain the idea of a change this year based on persistent rumors but concluded that Tim will stick around at least through the Trump administration since he's the buffer that Apple needs to deal with that chaos.

     

     

  9. NVIDIA's Language Processing Units Shipments Swell 10x+ vs Previous Yr (but how do they compare to Apple Silicon volumes?)

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Are you sure that's "millions"? It's 1984 all over again.

    Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, posted on social platform X that the latest supply chain survey pointed to a considerable upward revision in LPU (Language Processing Unit) shipment forecasts following NVIDIA's investment in Groq.

    The total shipments for this year and next are estimated to be between 4 million and 5 million units, with this year accounting for 30-40% and next year for 60-70%. Against the previous year, this implies a spike of over 10 times.

    Source: AASTOCKS.com via Analyst: Ming-Chi Kuo

    NB: Total shipments for Apple's A and M series processors were about 490 million last year…

    …with an expected 500 million this year. By this accounting Apple ships 100x more "AI" chips than Nvidia but it appears that "intelligence" is perceived to be centralized not decentralized. I am getting a weird feeling it's 1984 all over again.

     

     

  10. Harmful chemicals found in popular headphones

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Guess who was safest?

    Bisphenols and phthalates were found in popular headphone sets that can interfere with hormone-regulating systems. Overall, 44 percent of the models scored a “red” for a great concern of exposure, but only 11 percent of those models had traces of these hazardous materials that had contact with the skin.

    Source: euronews

    NB: The safest headphones were Apple’s AirPods Pro 2 a…

    …nd JBL’s Tune 720BT. Stay away from cheap headphones, especially from Temu. This should not come as a surprise but it does surprise me that so many don't seem to care.

     

     

  11. When does Apple split its stock?

    Nota Bene

    Is there a pattern?

    Apple has split its stock 5 times in its corporate history. Here’s a history of Apple’s stock splits and where its price would be now had it not divided its shares.

    After its first stock split in 1987, the tech giant conducted four additional splits, bringing its total to five in its corporate history as of mid-March 2026: 

    On June 21, 2000, Apple conducted a second 2-for-1 stock split.

    Apple conducted its next 2-for-1 stock split on Feb. 28, 2005.

    Apple’s next stock split was also its biggest: 7-for-1 on June 9, 2014.

    The most recent was a 4-for-1 stock split on Aug. 31, 2020.

    Current Apple stock price x 4 x 7 x 2 x 2 x 2 = Apple stock price had the stock never been split

    Based on the March 12, 2026, closing price, Apple stock would be $57,290.24 per share had it never been split.

    Source: TheStreet

    NB: The question on when would be the next split sometimes comes up…

    …My answer has been that $300 is probably a minimum point where a split would be considered. There might be some consideration given to the chance of growth.

    This is the history:

    • On: June 21, 2000: 2-for-1
    • Pre-Split Price (Approx): $111 (as of May 31, 2000)
    • Post-Split Price (Approx): ∼$55.50  

    On February 28, 2005, Apple Inc. completed a 2-for-1 stock split. On that date, the pre-split price of Apple stock was approximately $88.99 to $90.75 per share.

    On June 9, 2014, Apple Inc. underwent a 7-for-1 stock split. Immediately prior to the split, the stock was trading around $645 to $656 per share. Following the split, shares began trading at a split-adjusted price of approximately $92 to $94.

    On August 31, 2020, the date the 4-for-1 stock split became effective, Apple Inc. pre-split shares closed at $499.23 on Friday, August 28, before trading at the new adjusted price around $125 on Monday, August 31, 2020.

    The last two splits were at $645 and $499 while the previous two were at $111 and $90. My guess for $300+ is reflecting this mix.