"Apple has blown through the barriers with the iPhone, and the same thing is going to happen with the iPad," said Kendall Collins, chief marketing officer for Salesforce.com. "This will be huge for business, and a major new category that will be a catalyst for many different aspects of the industry."
Apple is alone hanging ten on the biggest wave to hit tech since ever. It'll be a sight to behold, folks.
link: BMO ups its iPad sales estimate 30% - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech
Research #Estimates #Market #iPad
3:1 split between LG and Samsung. No word on timing for this production, but I doubt it's longer than one year.
My estimate is 6 million 2010 and about 15 million for calendar 2011.
Time’s Managing Editor: iPad Content Awaits ‘Its Orson Welles’ - Digits - WSJ
He compared it to the era after sound first came into motion pictures. For a while many movies were more like filmed plays, until directors really learned to take advantage of the opportunities of the medium. For the iPad, too, “the medium is waiting for its Orson Welles,” Stengel said.
Research #google #iPad · 4 comments
Never mind the gossip and tales of intrigue. Ignore the stories of betrayal and affairs. Forget the animosity and ego tripping.
No, the real reason you should be nervous if you are betting on Google long term is that Schmidt gave his first iPhone away.
By August of 2007 it's reported that "Schmidt had long ago given up on the Apple handset because he couldn't stand the on-screen keyboard. His wife had tested a prototype, but didn't care to keep it. Schmidt, we're told, ended up giving his iPhone to [his mistress] as a gift"
Here is a guy who has in his hands one of the first iPhones and he treats it with contempt.
He did not get it.
Nor, it seems, does he get the iPad.
Google does not understand where computing is going.
I don't mean this in a small way. I mean this in a big way.
There were an estimated 228 million U.S. Web users in 2009, so if Apple was able to sell iPads to only one-third of those it would mean domestic sales of 76 million units.
Link: San Jose Business Journal
More interesting stats from Business Pulse survey by the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal that was conducted between March 16 and March 23:
Additional survey data from comScore:
Another from Sybase and conducted by Zogby International surveyed 2,443 adults with a mobile phone, 770 of which own smartphones. Among the smartphone-owning respondents, more than half -- 52.3 percent -- said they are most likely to use a tablet device like the iPad to do work
AppleInsider | No. 1 planned use for Apple iPad: working on the go.
Apple Inc. is still negotiating lowered-priced content deals from media companies for its iPad ahead of the device's April 3 launch, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday on its Web site, citing unidentified sources close to the matter. Apple has already sold hundreds of thousands of the devices on pre-order, according to the Journal. The sources also told the newspaper that the iPad may outsell the iPhone within the first three months after launch.
My emphasis.
link: Apple still negotiating iPad media deals: WSJ - MarketWatch
That does not seem to be quite a huge feat. The iPhone sold 1 million within 74 days and approximately 1.4 million in the first quarter.
With "a few hundred thousand" pre-sold it seems rather likely to me that an additional million for three months is not a stretch.
Podcast #Nostalgia #death watch #iPad · 37 comments
iPad Death Watch : AAPLinvestors
You can't go wrong betting against this bunch.
(link above reproduced below due to bandwidth issues with their servers.)
“Any tablet computer, including Apple’s eagerly anticipated iPad, will face serious problems in generating big sales. Tablets look cool, but the reality is they don’t do anything new.” Michael Comeau, Minyanville, 5 March 2010
Dvorak:”I’m telling you, look at this product coming out of India called the Adam.” Curry: “A-D-A-M?” Dvorak: “Yeah.” Curry: “And it’s a what it’s a pad?” Dvorak: “It’s an iPad Killer. And I hate to use that term since the iPad is probably dead anyway.” No Agenda Podcast, Adam Curry & John C. Dvorak, 25 February 2010
“Fewer capabilities (than a netbook) but a similar size? Not a good start.”Lee Gomes, Forbes Asia Magazine, 5 March 2010
“We of course build plastic mock-ups that we show (to customers)…we had a slate form factor. The feedback was that for (our) customers it will not work because of the need to have (a physical) keyboard. These were 14-year-old kids, who, I thought, would be most willing to try a virtual keyboard but they said no, we want the physical keyboard.” Mika Majapuro, Worldwide Sr. Product Marketing Manager, Lenovo, 22 February 2010
“The Apple iPad is not going to be the company’s next runaway best seller.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 12 February 2010
“It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’” Bill Gates, Microsoft, 10 February 2010
“The rally has been especially kind to seemingly racy stocks such as Apple and Google. Both have pole-vaulted to market-surpassing gains over the past 12 months, despite the fact that the former’s hamster-wheel of innovation (to borrow an apt phrase from my Fool colleague Joe Magyer) may have hit a snag with the iPad. ” Shannon Zimmerman, The Motley Fool, 10 February 2010
“It’s not a tablet, it’s an extension of the iPod Touch. It has some new kinks, but generally speaking it’s using the iPhone OS. It’s more like a smart phone than a personal computer. It’s the Newton reborn. What’s missing most is the communications aspect.” Andreas Haas (former Apple executive), CEO, Axiotron (Modbook), 7 February 2010
Before Jan 20th, 49 percent of people said they didn’t think they needed an Apple Tablet. That number jumped to 61 percent after the announcement. Fifty-nine percent of buyers wouldn’t pay extra for 3G coverage. Whether this device becomes a big hit is anyone’s guess but based on this study it sure looks doubtful.” Retrevo, 5 February 2010
“Yet it’s hard to see how the iPad, in the form unveiled last month, will come close to transforming daily life as much as the iPod or iPhone. The challenge with the iPad will be less about improving an established market than building a new one.” Arik Hesseldahl, BusinessWeek, 5 February 2010
“I added it up and … like 800 people are going to buy the iPad. . . . It’s not that the iPad is a failure. It’s just a product ahead of its time. No one should actually buy this iPad — between its inevitable first-generation bugs, fulfillment problems, and buyer’s remorse over added features and price drops, it’s heartbreak waiting to happen.” Molly Wood, CNet, 31 January 2010
“It was a bigger iPod Touch. I question whether those features would be enough to get people to buy new machines.” Satoru Iwata, President, Nintendo, 29 January 2010
“The company once notorious for its ability to upend convention and revolutionize markets may no longer have what it takes, worry some technology journalists. Call it the iPad or the iPlod, but the message seems clear: Apple may have lost its mojo.” Jeremy A. Kaplan, FOXNews.com, 28 January 2010
“What’s the single most worrisome thing about the iPad? It’s Apple’s monopoly on distribution of applications. ” Harry McCracken, Tecnologizer.com, 29 January 2010
“The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I’ve seen and heard, this won’t be it.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 29 January 2010
“It is a humorous world in how Microsoft is much more open than Apple,” Frank Shaw, Microsoft, Corporate VP, Corporate Communications, 29 January 2010
“When Steve Jobs first demonstrated the Apple Mac, he used the words “insanely great” to demonstrate the full graphical display of the computer. It’s a tag that has stuck around to this day among Apple fans. But, today’s comments from Jobs that the iPad is a “magical, revolutionary” device ring hollow.”Dan Wayne, apc mag, 28 January 2010
“All the people (including me) who felt underwhelmed by the iPad initially might have missed its true potential. Put another way: the iPad is all about software. Forget the sleek form factor – that’s just a prerequisite. Ironically, it’s the software and services that Microsoft never ‘got’, that Apple totally does get.” Dan Wayne, apc mag, 12 February 2010
“Nothing from the iPad specs that I’ve seen really shows any great cause for celebration. Unless Apple has also developed some new type of power source, such as nuclear cells or magical hamsters on tiny spinning wheels for the iPad, don’t expect the claims about battery life to hold true. ” John Breeden II, Government Computer News, 28 January 2010
“Ultimately, the iPad is a large iPod touch: a great device to draw your inspiration from, but perhaps not the seismic shift in technology that we were expecting.” Claudine Beaumont, The Telegraph, 28 January 2010
“Behold: The Apple iFlop Neither “truly magical” nor “revolutionary,” the cluelessly named Apple iPad tablet device has dropped like a shiny wedge into the gadget game, dividing tech watchers in to opposing views — the critical and the adoring.” Scott Moritz, TheStreet.com, 28 January 2010
“9 Worst Things About The Apple Tablet: 1. No Flash 2. Its screen 3. Its price 4. Closed App Store 5. Its name 6. No multitasking 7. No camera 8. No USB 9. AT&T deal Bianca Bosker, Huffington Post, 29 January 2010
“What do the new Apple iPad and Google’s Nexus One have in common? Both were DOA: Disappointing On Arrival. Why is the iPad a disappointment? Because it doesn’t allow us to do anything we couldn’t do before. Sure, it is a neat form factor, but it comes with significant trade-offs, too. No 16:9 widescreen, for example.” David Coursey, PC World, 28 January 2010
“E-readers will outsell iPads because of the simple economics of the consumer device market. It’s triple the weight and 30% thicker than an e-reader. You need two hands to hold it. It’s got a backlit screen, and it’s too expensive to give one to everyone in your house.” Russ Wilcox, CEO E-Ink (makers of Amazon’s Kindle), 28 January 2010
“It seems like a high priced, unnecessary trinket to me.” Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, 27 January 2010
“Apple iPad - failure, joke or fiasco? Pick one” Linen DeFiller, MillionFace.com, 27 January 2010
“The press weren’t cheering and whooping. I didn’t see anybody pee their pants … Not one! The only people I saw cheering were the people who work at Apple down in the front two rows … Al Gore was going crazy. I wanted to see more. It’s a big iPod. What is there to do there? Play a video game on a bigger screen? I thought it [iPad] was ‘paving the cow path’ (enshrining a makeshift solution).” Dan Lyons aka Fake Steve Jobs, 27 January 2010
“Let’s face it, the Internet was designed for the PC. The Internet is not designed for the iPhone. That’s why they’ve got 75,000 applications — they’re all trying to make the Internet look decent on the iPhone.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, 21 October 2009
Apple (AAPL) is on track to build 5 million iPads in the first half of 2010, according to FBR Capital chip analyst Craig Berger.
link: Apple To Build 5 Million iPads In First Half 2010, Analyst Says - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
5 million by June sounds a lot more likely than 2 million by October.
Until we get some real data, my target remains 5 million sold for calendar 2010, but I would not be in the least surprised if it was 10 million.
In either case, iPad will sell better than the iPhone out of the gate.
Research #Market #iPad · 1 comment
A survey of nearly 3,200 consumers by ChangeWave Research finds that 40% of people planning to buy an e-reader in the next 90 days expect to get Apple's iPad. The current leader, Amazon.com's (AMZN) Kindle, came in second at 28%.
link: E-Reader Buyers Coveting iPad Over The Kindle - Investors.com
This should be put together with data showing at least 15% of iPhone users showing purchase intent for iPad.
If we assume 45 million iPhone users by time of launch (42 million units have been sold as of end of December) and 15% would buy iPads it would therefore not be unreasonable to assume about 7 million iPads will go to iPhone users alone.
It's unfortunate that we cannot calibrate against installed base of Kindle users since Amazon has never released any sales figures.