Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

Market

  1. Smartphone impressions triple in a year

    Research

    link: Smartphone traffic is up 193% in a year - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

    What is important to observe is not the share numbers in the link above but the absolute growth and trend.

    Doing a bit of algebra from the data Admob provided we can calculate that:

    1. The overall traffic admob handled was 14.1b up from 6.6b a year ago. (114% growth)
    2. Smartphones generated 6.78b impressions in February, up from 2.3b a year ago. (193% growth). The iPhone OS generated 3.4b impressions.
    3. Feature phones generated 4.9b, up from 3.5b (43% growth)

    Although it's dangerous to equate "usage" to these impression numbers, the overall trend is that most of the growth is happening on smartphones. Of those, the iPhone OS and Android are taking 75% share of eyeballs, at least on Admob's network.

    The iPhone platform generated as many impressions in February as all feature phones generated a year ago. It does not seem a stretch to predict that iPhone will overtake all feature phones in overall impressions in the near future.

  2. Could the iPad become Apple's most popular product?

    Research

    There were an estimated 228 million U.S. Web users in 2009, so if Apple was able to sell iPads to only one-third of those it would mean domestic sales of 76 million units.

    Link: San Jose Business Journal

    More interesting stats from Business Pulse survey by the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal that was conducted between March 16 and March 23:

    • 9% plan to buy right away
    • 23% said they expect to buy but can wait (total of 32% plan on purchase)

    Additional survey data from comScore:

    • 65% awareness
    • 1% of those aware already ordered the iPad
    • 15% of those aware plan to buy within 3 months

    Another from Sybase and conducted by Zogby International surveyed 2,443 adults with a mobile phone, 770 of which own smartphones. Among the smartphone-owning respondents, more than half -- 52.3 percent -- said they are most likely to use a tablet device like the iPad to do work

    AppleInsider | No. 1 planned use for Apple iPad: working on the go.

  3. 300k Apps Approved by August

    Research

    Apple leads the App Store race with 170,000 apps

    Palm announced 2k apps on their store and Google recently crossed over 30k. Blackberry has 5k. Ovi maintains about 7k apps.

    According to Appshopper there are 199,885 apps approved and 172,662 available on the App Store. (200k will certainly be crossed today March 21st). Due to churn and policy enforcement Apple has removed 27,223 apps from its store over the years.

    In the case of Android, policing may not amount to much catalog erosion so the 30k figure is more comparable to the "approved" Apple figure.

    With 27th the deadline for inclusion by the April 3rd launch date, the rush to submit new apps for the iPad is on. No doubt, there will be a significant surge in new apps in March. This might lead to a new record of over 25k apps added in one month.

    My initial estimate in February for the 200k milestone was by May 1st. I was clearly off by nearly 40 days. If the add rate is maintained at 20k/mo 300k will come around in August although I'm not as confident in this forecast. The rate of app addition seems to be accelerating.

  4. Palm sell-through down 15% year-on-year

    Research

    Smart phones sold to retail customers totaled 408,000 units, down 15% from a year earlier and 29% sequentially

    By some estimates, Apple pre-sold more iPads online in one week than Palm sold smartphones through Sprint and Verizon stores in 3 months.  What's more remarkable is that year-on-year decline implies Palm sold more Windows Mobile devices than WebOS which was not on the market a year ago.

    link: Palm Narrows Loss but Retail Sales Decline - WSJ.com

    • The company said there are over 2,000 apps in the Palm App Catalog.
    • ASP was $367, down from $375.
    • Almost all volume was from WebOS products (Windows Mobile devices are gone)
    • For Q4, the company expects revenue to be less than $150 million.
    • Q4 gross margin likely in the mid-teens.
    • Guidance for $150 million in revenue, down 57% sequentially.

    After hours market cap for Palm is about $833 million down 13%.  Expected revenue and ASP imply about 410k units will be sold into the channel in the following quarter.

  5. Sources tell WSJ iPad to outsell iPhone within 3 months of sales start

    Research

    Apple Inc. is still negotiating lowered-priced content deals from media companies for its iPad ahead of the device's April 3 launch, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday on its Web site, citing unidentified sources close to the matter. Apple has already sold hundreds of thousands of the devices on pre-order, according to the Journal. The sources also told the newspaper that the iPad may outsell the iPhone within the first three months after launch.

    My emphasis.

    link: Apple still negotiating iPad media deals: WSJ - MarketWatch

    That does not seem to be quite a huge feat.  The iPhone sold 1 million within 74 days and approximately 1.4 million in the first quarter.

    With "a few hundred thousand" pre-sold it seems rather likely to me that an additional million for three months is not a stretch.

  6. Microsoft Taketh Away

    Research

    Summarizing the new Windows Phone 7 Series:

    1. No Multi-tasking -- However, there are going to be notifications.
    2. No App Sideloading
    3. No App store other than the Microsoft App Store
    4. No Cut/Copy/Paste
    5. No Expandable Storage
    6. No Exposed File System
    7. No Shell Customization / Skinning
    8. No native applications (managed code only)

    Funny how when iPhone came out and Ballmer laughed his head off, these were the "power" features that most pointed to in WinMo that made the iPhone a "toy".

    Maybe if people want an iPhone copy, they will get an iPhone.

    UPDATE:  (via Gruber)

    Catching up is hard. And based on what I’m hearing about iPhone OS 4.0, it seems likely that Windows Phone 7 is going to fall further behind before it even gets a chance to ship.