Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

analyst

  1. Hewlett-Packard is bundling a tablet with a $399 printer

    Research · 17 comments

    The bottom line: HP's decision to bundle a tablet computer with its new $399 printer could make trouble for competitors.

    HP's New Tablet Could Be an iPad Spoiler - BusinessWeek

    HP took the control panel display from a printer and made it detachable. The idea, according to the manager in charge, is that this will encourage printing. Printing is a good business for HP because they manage to charge $7500 per gallon of ink.

    I suppose there can be some sense to this idea but I don't use inkjet printers so I can't judge how popular this can be. But the headline suggestion that the new display panel cum web pad is "an iPad Spoiler" calls into question the author's motivations. Maybe he did it for a bet.

    But the real gem is a quote from Richard Shim an IDC PC analyst who says "Everyone is trying to figure out the opportunity for these types of devices, how to position media tablets in a way that they don't cannibalize other businesses."

    That's an interesting comment coming from a PC analyst. It says that the vendors in the industry are already feeling that the iPad is substituting regular PCs (and hence the need for a response that is sustaining not disruptive).

    This acknowledgment means it's only a matter of time before the idea of iPad as PC morphs from crazy talk to conventional wisdom.

  2. Asymco: the existential theory

    Research · 44 comments

    Much of what I write is structured around theories of strategy and management. The word theory gets a bad reputation among managers because it's associated with the word "theoretical" which connotes impractical. But a theory is a very practical thing because it's a statement of causality. Causality means you don't have to collect experimental evidence on whether when you jump out of a window you fall or not. There is a theory about gravity which you can use to your advantage.

    So even though they scorn talk of theory, managers use theory all the time. Whenever a rational manager takes any action, it's predicated on a theory already in their head. Whenever they put forward a business plan they are employing a theory that if they do these things they will be successful.

    The problem is that much of what passes for business debate is the stacking of theories on either side of an argument. Unfortunately most of these theories are not much more than anecdotes. To say that "open always wins" is a theory but it's usually backed only by one or two examples without a list of counter-examples. That's not to pick on "open" as there are many more deeply flawed theories (e.g. the stupid manager theory of business failure) which have no evidence whatsoever to support them and all the evidence in the world to disprove them and yet they retain the highest popularity.

    So the problem with management "science" is that most managers are not aware of what theories they are employing, treating them more like intuition or some God-given insight. They also don't know whether or to what extent their theories are good or bad. They also don't have access to a body of data that supports or challenges their theories. Business data is often locked away even from employees of the company producing such data. It's buried so effectively that it's often forgotten and has to be re-generated every time a new management team takes over. Corporations effectively kill self-knowledge and lack any institutional memory.

    To illustrate the effect I can offer personal testimony. When working at my last job I spent a great deal of salaried time collecting data and presenting it. Much like what is presented in this unsalaried blog. The difference is that when a "work product" was done (almost always in the form of Powerpoint slideware), it would be released to the audience which requested it. This audience could be as small as one person or as large at a few dozen. But once consumed by the audience, the product had a half-life of about a week. It would be literally forgotten in a month. Now this could be used to one's advantage as every few months a smart analyst could dust off some old product and re-release it to the amazement of another audience or even to the same audience who had forgotten. Taken to extremes, you can envision a Dilbert-like scenario where the analyst is like Wally who has a perpetual salary for repeating ancient knowledge.

    The reason this model for analysis fails is because information is rationed in corporations. The transmission, dissemination, storage and consumption of information is intentionally constrained. This makes the work of an analyst nearly useless. I finally became disillusioned with the process when, at one point in time, having worked on one piece of analysis for two weeks on the premise that it would be presented at a high-level meeting, my time slot got bumped off the agenda due to scheduling issues. My work was never presented to anyone.

    It was at that time that I realized that my "work product" was non-essential to the meeting anyway. It was, for the lack of a better word, executive entertainment. So, naturally, realizing that I was really an entertainer I resolved to become better at it. That led me to target not those who request the work, but the largest audience possible because they would give me better feedback. I began to blog internally.

    Calling analysis entertainment may sound flippant, but at a more core level, it's actually an enlightened way to see the process. Steve Jobs is an executive but his skill at entertaining an audience is what makes him an effective communicator with huge consequences to his firm. In olden days CEOs were lauded for their problem solving skills, then for their sales skills, but now they need to be "charismatic" and therefore entertaining.

    This blog is an experiment in the opening of business theory and the open exchange of insights. In doing so I take a look at keeping the work relevant by making it approachable, illuminating and, yes, entertaining. So I went from a salaried producer of analysis for a small and forgetful audience to an unsalaried producer of analysis for a large audience in a format that encourages memory. A company was paying a lot of money for something that it ignored. I now receive no income for work that is (hopefully) ravenously consumed. I rather like this more.

    When I started this blog I chose a word "asymco" which did not exist and had exactly zero hits on Google search. Now I'm glad to see that "asymco" has 77,300 results on Google search. I am grateful to all who have helped in making this possible and I'm looking forward to further collaboration.

  3. Forecasting iPhone production and sales

    Research · 22 comments

    Analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro with Susquehanna Financial Group in a note to investors:

    1. Apple to build 3 million CDMA iPhones in December
    2. That would put total GSM and CDMA iPhone production for the quarter at between 21 million and 22 million.
    3. For the current quarter, Apple is set to build between 18.2 million and 18.4 million GSM-only iPhones.
    4. Expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. 39 percent q/q increase[1][see UPDATE below]
    5. As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame.
    6. Expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units into the current quarter, 45 percent growth q/q, to a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010.

    via AppleInsider | Suppliers say Apple will build first 3M CDMA iPhones in December.

    What I don't get from these numbers:

    • current quarter production: 18.2 million
    • current quarter units sold: 11.6 million
    • inventory at end of Q: 6.6 m units [I am assuming minimal inventory at start as iPhone 4 was just launched]
    • next quarter production: 21 million
    • next quarter units sold: ?
    • inventory at start + production = 27.6 million

    My own estimate is for more than 12 (and up to 13) million units will be sold this quarter. I think inventory of more than half of production is too high for Apple. They usually carry only about 10% inventory.

    My December quarter units sold may need revision but now stand at 14 million. If I substitute 14 million in the "?" above  then the inventory at end of December would be 13.6 million which would be nearly 100% of units sold--clearly unacceptable. Either production is too high or sales are too low.

    I am at 4.7 million iPads for the quarter an 13.9 million for the year. No major difference in opinion.

    ---

    [1] This forecast for 39% growth would make this quarter the second lowest growth quarter for the product. This makes is hard to believe because every launch quarter has usually been breaking records for growth. The 3G launch saw 516% growth and the 3GS saw 644%. To see 39% for the iPhone 4 makes me wonder especially as the comparable year ago quarter was not a launch quarter so growth should be off a low base. Last quarter, when the iPhone 4 was leaked and the channel was drained the product had 61% growth.

    Compare also to the Mac which had 33% growth last quarter. Are we to believe that launch quarter iPhone growth is barely higher than Mac growth?

    The figure of 11.6 million is also in-line with other analysts which seems to indicate another forecasting failure for the cohort.

    [UPDATE] I checked the figures and 11.6 million iPhones is equivalent to 58% growth y/y. The (now corrected) article was citing q/q growth. However, 58% growth is still the second lowest growth quarter for the product.

  4. If RIM did not exist today and someone were to suggest it, could it ever get funded?

    Research · 22 comments

    Consider what RIM had to overcome to even be: It was an outsider entering the mobile phone business at a time when incumbent market power was far more concentrated. It evolved from data-only pagers awkwardly adapted to carry voice without pandering to the fashion consciousness of its contemporaries obsessed as they were with the RAZR. Its foothold market was the most difficult market to enter, the US; and within it, in most difficult sector--business users.

    RIM's solution has no architectural elegance and their non-standard approach to email using their own servers and protocols defied all IT policies regarding security and the entrenched use of Exchange. Even after Microsoft offered a cleaner solution (Exchange push) that avoided the RIM back end, businesses otherwise committed to Microsoft stuck with RIM for mobile email. In spite of various government opposition, RIM continues to grow internationally.

    Even its acceptance may be an accident of history.

    The absence of interoperable SMS in the US early last decade meant that there was no reliable way to send text from one mobile to another across CDMA and GSM networks. The Blackberry was hired to to the same job that SMS was hired to do anywhere else, but by the time SMS was working in the US, the use of Blackberry increased irrespectively.

    It should be no wonder then that the company can be considered both disruptive and a dead end. Analysts have been split about it from day one. Gartner advised against adoption by any self-respecting IT shop.

    Equities analysts are still split into bulls and bears more evenly than any other company in this space. See: RIMM: Street Split Sharply On The Stock; Avian Cuts Rating (Updated) - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    The arguments are pretty straight forward:

    • Competitive pressure from 'better' architectures, uninspiring products, lower growth

    vs.

    • Fierce loyalty of users, continuing international expansion, continuing growth

    The market has largely voted with the bears as the price shows absurdly low valuation (4.3x EV/EBITDA) but the company continues to show growth quarter after quarter.

    My own point of view has been for some time that RIM's disruptive days are over because the engineer in me says that their code base is a dead end. But the disruptive analyst in me leads me to be hesitant in proclaiming their imminent demise. The fact remains that their product is good enough for a subset of the users who want nothing more than a messaging phone. I will add however that this subsets unlikely to grow especially relative to the number of users who will opt for more highly functional devices.

    So the riddle of RIM remains: rumors of its death has been exaggerated but it's not an unforeseeable growth story anymore. As a result the company is in limbo.

  5. Per Lindberg predicts things

    Research · 18 comments

    “The N8 is certainly a step in the right direction, it’s much more multimedia,” Per Lindberg, an independent technology analyst at MF Global in London, told Marayam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” “But whether it will move Nokia’s market share upwards is more debatable,” he said adding that Android phones are becoming an “formidable force.”

    via Nokia Says Preorders for N8 Smartphone Are Strongest Ever Seen - Bloomberg.

    This is the same Per Lindberg who, in January of this year, reiterated his February 2009 Sell rating on Apple and the entire smartphone industry:

    "There is no doubt, in my mind, that the whole sector is hugely overstretched," says the London-based physics PhD and MBA graduate who joined MF Global Ltd. in 2008 after 10 years at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort.

    "The whole sector is priced as if the average player would sustain 25 per cent margin in eternity," he adds.

    "It's bordering on absurdity. This will end in tears."

    He is willing to use the b-word: "Many stock bubbles are generated by sell-side analysts generating enthusiasm for the companies they cover."

    To date however, it's Mr. Lindberg's call that's been the costly one for investors. He has maintained his sell rating on Apple since early February of last year, causing investors who followed his advice to miss out on a more than 110-per-cent surge in the share price.

    Meet Apple's sole skeptic - The Globe and Mail

    In February 2009 Apple's stock price was $89. Yesterday it closed at $267.

  6. Gartner: Symbian will lose smartphone battle, Microsoft's standardised handsets will win the day

    Research · 8 comments

    I had to do some digging to find this to contrast to the recent Gartner prediction that Symbian will be the market share leader in 2014.

    The following article appeared in 2003:

    Symbian will lose smartphone battle

    By Rob Jones at Gartner Symposium ITxpo, Cannes [07-11-2003]

    Microsoft's standardised handsets will win the day, says Gartner

    Analyst Gartner has warned that, without a concerted effort by Symbian and its backers, Microsoft will sweep them aside in the smartphone business.

    Redmond's ability to offer standardised handsets which are easier for businesses to support and use will help the software giant win corporate approval, the market watcher predicted.

    Nick Jones, vice president and research fellow at Gartner, said that, while Microsoft did not have a good corporate smartphone today, he believed it would do by the end of 2004.

    The analyst predicted that Microsoft will ship a phone boasting strong integration of a range of packages, such as Exchange and Outlook.

    Symbian, he added, needed to resolve a number of issues to be a credible, corporate alternative. Its platform and menus differ slightly on various handsets, which means that they often do not have the same user interface.

    "Symbian is not very committed to fixing this problem. So Microsoft is getting stronger and Symbian is not addressing the corporate market," explained Jones.

    "This is unattractive for chief information officers. They need standard systems and that's what Microsoft will provide.

    "If by the end of next year Symbian hasn't solved its problems, Microsoft will be a very strong competitor for a standard corporate smartphone.

    "Symbian could lose the battle and at the moment I'd have to say it will probably happen."

  7. Analysts' categorical failure

    Research · 15 comments

    Gartner explicitly explained so in its press release: "Gartner's PC group does not track media tablet sales in this PC shipment data, so iPad sales are not included in these results

    via Is Apple the real U.S. PC market share leader -- or soon will be? | Betanews.

    The reluctance of  industry analysts to measure the iPad as a computer is a fascinating and vivid symptom of how analysts conspire with their customers to smother visibility of impending failure.

    Before we dive into the motivation to ignore iPads, we need to understand how analysts in general and companies in particular group products into comparable piles. This process of grouping is called categorization. It should be distinguished from segmentation which groups buyers in a market. Categorization is essential for competitive analysis and measurement of the performance of a product (relative to other products).

    Categorization is a challenging problem for most companies. To illustrate why, consider four possible methods for categorizing products:

    1. By product attributes. The assumption here is that products with similar attributes compete in the same market. As an example hard disk drives might be categorized by dimensions of the cases and sub-categorized by capacity and perhaps transfer speeds.
    2. By user attributes. This method is similar to segmentation where products are grouped by the type of buyer. Magazine titles might be properly categorized by the age and gender of the readers. This can also cover geographic data.
    3. By user behavior. This method, sometimes called psychographics is a more advanced method than demographics where user personality, values, attitudes, interests or lifestyles are measured. You might have seen examples where users are defined with a "prototype" person and the products are attached to this prototype. This is a common way to categorize mobile phones (Nokia is a known leader in this method).
    4. By modes of consumption. Determine what products are hired to do the same job. In this case you have to have real insight into what people actually do with their products and try to look broadly at what they substitute. The classic example of this is to understand that a power drill competes with products what make holes in walls not just with other drills.

    When reading this list, it's easy to see that it's ranked in order of difficulty. The easiest thing to do is group according to things you can measure easily. Products are easier to measure than demographics which are easer to measure than psychographics and that's easier to capture than observed behavior.

    Consider how you would structure a study to capture this data.

    1. In the first case, you need an analyst to collect products (or just their descriptions) and record values in a spreadsheet.
    2. In the second case, users need to be surveyed for basic data. This is hard because you have to find users and then you have to get a statistically significant unbiased sample.
    3. In the psychographic study you need to ask a lot more questions about lifestyle in your survey and hope that the subject answers honestly. You still need a large sample.
    4. In the case of consumption analysis you need to observe a subject use a product for a prolonged period of time in the usual context where the product is used and be able to interject questions when certain behavior is encountered. The observation of one person can take one research person-day per subject. To get statistically significant data requires literally man-years of work.

    Now it should be clear why an analyst will only categorize according to product attributes. It's not only economically and temporally expensive to perform research on methods 2 to 4 but it also requires interpretation and insight into study development.

    A few companies go beyond buying analyst market data and do their own research. As far as I know user studies are more commonly done by consumer products companies. But it's extremely rare to see this research done by low-margin technology companies. They don't have the budgets or skill sets to do any research.

    However, in my experience, nobody performs the fourth, most difficult, form of categorization.

    The result is that good, smart managers trained to always base their decisions on hard facts, pick up these lowest-deonominator analyst reports to help decide which products to develop. And it should be obvious why they are surprised when products that did not show up on any market study suddenly take all their profits away.

    Thanks Gartner.

  8. 3Q review: The iPad adds over $700 million of operating profit with an average selling price of $662

    Research

    The iPad units numbers were not a surprise (except perhaps to some of the professional analysts who do not read Apple's press releases). Among the more accurate (amateur) analysts, the range was from 3.2 to 3.45 million with an average of 3.32.  My estimate of 3.3 million was the mode of the distribution.

    Apple sold 3.270 million in the first ever quarter.  The ASP came in at $662.39, below my expected $700 but higher than the iPhone.

    The only unknown is the gross margin.  Given the overall GM and the other products' margins, I am backing out a 33% margin for the quarter.  I had expected 40% but the lower margin may be a result of launch quarter issues (shipping and allocation of stock) and perhaps a lower target margin for the product.  It should be noted that the iPad margin sits between the Mac and iPod (around 30%) and the iPhone (around 60%).  The iPad is a new category that sits between the Mac and iPhone in terms of usage and it seems it sits also half-way in terms of margins.  Going forward, I'm still modeling a 40% GM for the iPad.

    Overall, I estimate the iPad added $717 million of operating profit to Apple's bottom line. Not bad for a product that was almost universally panned on launch day.

  9. Analysts predict iPad sales (part III)

    Research

    Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days - Yahoo! Finance.

    After 1 2 3 million units sold in 28 60 80 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

    First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

    • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
    • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
    • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
    • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
    • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
    • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
    • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
    • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
    • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
    • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
    • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
    • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
    • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
    • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

    Looks like at least half two thirds three quarters of these guys have already blown it.

    For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I'll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

    See: Analysts predict iPad sales Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

  10. Analysts upgrading AAPL

    Research

    Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro: To $335 from $325.

    Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu: To $340 from $320.

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: To $348 from $340.

    Caris and Co.'s Robert Cihra: To $325 from $310.

    Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: To $332 from $310.

    International Strategy & Investment Group's Abhey Lamba: initiate with $320.

    Cowen's Matthew Hoffman: initiate with $326.

    At yesterday's closing price Apple was trading at a 12-month trailing P/E multiple of 23 despite revenue growth that may exceed 50% and EPS growth that may exceed 70%.

    Using the highest target of $348 price target as an example, it prices the shares at a P/E of less than 30 times the most recent 12-month earnings which does not take into account the contributions from the iPad.

    Apple is on track to report three consecutive quarters of record revenue and earnings (beginning with the June quarter) and current analyst price targets do not reflect the current and anticipated rates of revenue and earnings growth.

    Analysts scramble to raise AAPL targets - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech.

  11. Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

    Research · 6 comments

    After 12 million units sold in 28 60 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

    First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

    • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
    • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
    • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
    • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
    • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
    • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
    • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
    • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
    • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
    • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
    • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
    • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
    • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
    • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

    Looks like at least half two thirds of these guys have already blown it.

    For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I'll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

    See: Analysts predict iPad sales