Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Feb 22, 2026.
Research
Latest data indicates 88% of teens own and intend to purchase iPhones, marking a decade-long trend of increasing adoption. This phenomenon transcends mere functionality; the iPhone has become a cultural icon, symbolizing status and identity.
Unlike other Apple products, such as Apple TV+ or Apple Music, which struggle for traction among teens, the iPhone's appeal is deeply woven into the social fabric, partly due to generational continuity—the children of early iPhone adopters are now loyal users themselves.
In contrast, social media platforms illustrate the fickle nature of tech usage among younger demographics. While Facebook remains prevalent among older millennials, Gen Z gravitates towards Instagram and TikTok, reflecting shifts in cultural preferences and digital behaviors.
For Apple, success in services like Music and TV+ hinges on leveraging existing family dynamics through bundling.
On the Q4 call, Tim Cook highlighted Greater China’s 38% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by record iPhone sales, strong upgrade activity, and double-digit retail traffic gains.
Europe, however, drew little attention—despite generating more revenue for Apple than China. This is peculiar.
Europe’s smartphone market shows steady structural gains for iOS. Since 2018, share has risen from 24% to 39%, while Android has fallen from 74% to 60%—a 15-point swing equal to roughly 70 million additional users. With an installed base near 459 million users versus about 300 million in the U.S., Europe combines scale with affluence.
In sum, the pattern for Apple in Europe is not saturation but share transfer, signaling durable competitive strength in a mature market and an inkling of how all markets will eventually behave in maturity.
In the last quarter Apple reported 2.5 billion active devices. Of those, I estimate 1.6 billion are iPhones.
Using this as a base, I've created an iPhone installed base estimate looking forward to 2030, integrating Statcounter’s market share data, Ericsson’s global smartphone user forecasts, and BankMyCell’s smartphone install base.
The sources broadly align through 2025, though Statcounter’s historical iOS share (2017–2023) diverges somewhat, possibly reflecting Android’s heavier web traffic footprint due to usage patterns and bot activity rather.
Taken together, the data points to iPhone nearing 2 billion active devices by 2030, consistent with overall smartphone adoption. Android’s projected rise toward 4.5 billion users signals continuing headroom.
If switching dynamics and monetization trends persist, Apple’s ecosystem could expand to 2.5–3 billion users by 2035, with growth thereafter driven by switching and increased engagement depth and value extraction per user.
Nota Bene
Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4 → Apple is hosting intimate, global "Special Apple Experience" events on March 4, 2026, likely unveiling new products like the iPhone 17e and M5-powered MacBooks, marking a fresh twist on traditional live-streamed launches.
Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts → The "pod" in podcasts originated from Apple's iPod, with the company popularizing the medium by integrating podcasting into iTunes in 2005, and continuing to innovate with features like video podcast support and dynamic ad insertion.
Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color → Apple's upcoming lineup, featuring color-excited anticipation for the iPhone 17e and modest updates to iPads, promises subtle yet intriguing tech advancements.
Dan Ives Says Apple’s AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion → Apple's unparalleled distribution through its vast user base offers a significant competitive edge for rapidly monetizing AI innovations, potentially adding $1.5 trillion in value.
While big tech burns cash on AI, Apple waits → As foundation models commoditize, Apple strategically curates top AI tech into its ecosystem, prioritizing user experience over engine development.
Secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share → Apple faces memory cost inflation potentially raising iPhone prices, yet its strong ecosystem and execution provide resilience, whereas competitors like Samsung may struggle more due to lesser volume leverage.
iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche → Six skiers survived a deadly Lake Tahoe avalanche by using iPhone's Emergency SOS via satellite, highlighting its transition from luxury to essential. This feature enabled crucial communication with rescuers in remote areas lacking cellular service. The evolution mirrors mobile phones but faces slower adoption due to satellite bandwidth constraints.
The US Supreme Court has ruled against US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a raft of global tariffs → Apple and other affected companies may soon seek refunds for tariffs paid, following the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate Trump's tariffs, though the exact timeline and amount remain uncertain.
Bankers complain that Apple has a tight grip on mobile payments → Canadian banks struggled to compete in the mobile wallet market, dominated by tech giants like Apple and Google, due to their risk-averse nature clashing with tech's innovation-driven approach.
The all new Asymco One
Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing. → Asymco celebrates 17 years of insightful Apple analysis, launching Asymco One to guide stakeholders through Apple's evolving era with comprehensive content and community engagement. →
Introducing: Asymco One Office Hours → Join Asymco One's monthly Office Hours with Horace to get live insights on Apple's business and financials, with special editions during key events.
All Asymco Podcasts. All in One: Asymco One. → Exciting news: All Asymco Podcasts now under Asymco One subscription with remastered classics and new episodes.
Asymco One gives you full access to our research, analysis, and commentary. Subscribe with code BULLETIN for a discount.
Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.
