Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

Horace Dediu

  1. The iPhone Duo: theater, not specs

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    An Office Hours question asked by Fred S., September 11, 2026.

    Q: One theme about the iPhone Duo seems underreported: pleasure, prestige, the pride of ownership. It's always been there with Apple products, but being the first to get a foldable, after everyone's been talking about it for so long, might be a bigger driver than the practical aspects. Do you agree?

    Absolutely. The skeptics are the ones who haven't been able to be there, and seeing is believing. I called it having a sense of theater about it. It took what was a two-dimensional experience into three dimensions. As the demos show, it's always in motion. It's not just opening it as a book, though even the book nature of it matters. It can be held at a slightly open angle to resemble a book. It will be an alarm clock, a television, a keyboard and screen, and with the Apple Pencil it will be a notebook. The configurations they've demonstrated suggest that it has a presence, a satisfaction you get from using it in a tactile way. It is not a simple sheet of glass. That has its own attraction; we've always been sold on the thing as a piece of glass. But now it's suddenly an origami, a moving object.

    I'll give my own story. When I was at Nokia we believed in the so-called monoblock, a single phone that didn't have any moving parts, for many practical reasons. It was more durable. It had a longer battery, because you could put a big battery in it. It was cheaper to manufacture. And yet, at the same time, in the US and in Japan the flip phone was catching on big. Everyone in Finland was scratching their heads and asking why anybody would do this, as a user or as a builder of phones. One of the things people argued with us about was that there's a sense of action when you open and answer, and a sense of closure when you end the call by closing the phone. In Japan they had antennas that pulled out, so you opened it and had all these activities you would do to initiate a call. It's not just for the person doing it, but for the person watching. There are all kinds of secondary and tertiary effects to this form and the way it feels.

    On top of that, I think there's an element of attraction that, without saying it's only women, I think women are going to feel more: that this is more stylish. My wife has a case that opens this way, because she likes to put cards in it, and she likes the physical cover because the phone sits in a purse. There are all these reasons why you want a folding form factor. We don't think logically about this. We think this is a waste of energy, a waste of time, but it's extremely important to understand. I haven't seen the research or the data. Perhaps no one has; perhaps it's all secret. But I think Apple has seen what people do with things that move.

    Remember, even Jony Ive said people like to fidget. If you have a pen, you're always clicking it. If you have a pen where you can select different colors of ink, you're always messing with it. Physically moving objects have a natural attraction. The folding competitors may have known this already, but Apple just didn't think the technology or the quality was there until now. Apple doesn't do it just because you can. It only does it when it can meet their criteria to be sufficiently good.

    So the product is going to be a big hit, even though it's a niche, and many people, maybe most, would argue they don't need it. It'll be a bigger hit than we anticipate. Initially the market reaction was very muted. The stock closed flat. But since then it's risen quite a bit, and on the second and third day we've seen the realization, also by the media who were out there, that this has resonance with audiences. It's not about specs. It never is, with Apple, but in this case in particular there's a mystery to it, a mystery as to why it's going to be successful, and a charm. I always said Apple really sells hormones. Here we have people who are going to have the flushed cheeks and the dilated pupils, an emotional, hormonal response. And if you see another person with it, it's going to be contagious. This is why stores exist. The Apple Store exists precisely for this product. Steve even said the Apple Store exists for the Watch, because once you see it and touch it, you'll be persuaded. Once people see it in the stores, it'll be a huge driver.

    Q (follow-up): In jobs-to-be-done theory there are three hotspots: emotional, social and functional. You've covered the first two. On the functional side, anyone who uses an iPad regularly and has an iPhone is going to want one of these. It replaces the iPad mini and gives the iPad a pocket.

    A lot of people are going to discuss the utility. I've been reading many comments since the event, and people are discussing exactly this: pencil use, could I replace my iPad, what size is it, all the possible measurements. The whole point I'm making is to work at another level, away from utility, which gets less coverage because it is so much harder to talk about. The decisions to buy it are much more emotional than rational, because frankly that's how it came across to me. It's a product of dazzling dimensions of attraction, not just utility. I bring up metaphors: high heels, fashion, jewelry. Why do people buy jewelry at all? It's extremely non-functional, but it signals between people. Especially as a gift, it signals love, it signals desire, and people like to receive those symbols. Why do we not think this should apply to devices that happen to do other things as well, especially highly utilitarian things?


    One of the questions asked in Asymco Office Hours. The full recording and transcript are available to Asymco One subscribers.

    See the proceedings at asymco.com/live.

  2. What happens when smartphones become too good?

    Nota Bene · 3 comments

    Thoughts just before the Duo launched

    The smartphone industry has spent much of its history persuading consumers that the device in their pocket could be substantially better. Cameras improved, screens sharpened, and mobile networks advanced. Each generation offered another reason to replace the last. Today’s phones present manufacturers with a more complicated proposition. Consumers now keep smartphones for roughly four years, according to global technology market research firm Counterpoint Research, while resale and refurbishment keep devices in circulation longer. Counterpoint found that the global installed base of active smartphones grew 2 percent in 2025 even as replacement cycles approached four years.

    Source: The Beiruter

    NB: I had the pleasure of an interview with Katharine …

    …Sorensen of The Beiruter while riding the shuttle bus to the Apple iPhone event last week. Her questions could not consider the Duo as it had not yet launched but we discussed the more profound question of good enough phones.

     

     

  3. Asymco Bulletin 030 - Sep 13, 2026

    Bulletin

    The Asymmetric Weekly

    Invitations

    Asymco Office Hours Duo: Sunnyvale and Boston → Two cities, two sessions, two happy hours, marking Apple’s first keynote under John Ternus.

    West Coast: Sunnyvale, Friday, September 11. This session has now taken place. Asymco One subscribers: stay tuned for the recording and transcript.

    East Coast: Boston, Friday, September 18, 4–5:30pm ET. In person at Boston Seaport, followed by an Asymco Happy Hour from 5:30–7pm ET, or join remotely. Register for tickets, in person or remote. Asymco One subscribers are guaranteed seats, can sign up for free, and have access to recordings and transcripts. →


    Research

    Apple iPhone Event First Impressions

    From the Steve Jobs Theater I’m writing while still in the SJ Theater in Cupertino after the end of the event and the media frenzy around the demo devices. The atmosphere was noticeably more enthusiastic and the venue was packed. First impression was that John Ternus was already received as a “star” with a standing ovation to on-stage appearance and cheering at his video introduction from Tim Cook. Clearly the audience is already excited by his presence if not charismatic performance. The products were on par with outstanding polish and refinement. The details especially health and assistive features are truly →

    Is the Stairway to Heaven still working?

    Time to re-frame pricing on a daily basis The launch of the iPhone Duo and the surge in memory pricing has caused a disturbance in the force. The new Stairway graph is shown. A few notes: The process of lowering prices for n-1 devices has reversed. Previous generation iPhone prices have gone up for the first time ever. This is mitigated by the fact that “n-1” is not quite apparent for the 17 as it’s still the current model in the mid-range. The 17e and the 16 are still in the roster →

    Are iPhones too cheap?

    Prices for the iPhone 18 Pro and Duo are lower than expected When the iPhone Duo price was announced in the Steve Jobs theater I was the only one applauding. Prior to the Duo bombshell, the iPhone 18 Pro prices were announced to be a mere $100 higher than the iPhone 17 Pro and the Apple watch prices were kept steady while the AirPods prices actually came down (for one of the cases). A stunned silence was clearly warranted but applause? Of course, these are the starting prices and the higher memory/storage configurations are sharply higher. The top of the →


    Nota Bene

    Apple acquires Sonera. The next pivot point for interfaces? → Apple has always placed itself at the interface layer between human and machine, from the original personal computer through the mouse, the scroll wheel, multi-touch, spatial computing and audio. Every acquisition that detects or deduces human intention, gestures, motion, biometrics, health, belongs to that same pattern. Sonera built a room-temperature magnetometer that reads the weak magnetic fields produced by neural activity without touching skin, a sensing modality I was not even aware of. That is the first practical path to a non-invasive brain-computer interface, which is to say the next stage of human-computer interaction. →

    Apple now in third place in US PC market share → Apple passed Lenovo into third place in the US with shipments up 32.1%, lifting its share of the US consumer PC segment to 29.4%, while business shipments grew 50.6%. Dell fell 8.8% as component allocation moved away from entry-level systems and its Chromebook shipments collapsed 47%. Consumer PC shipments are expected to decline further this year. Apple is taking share in a contracting market, which is the only kind of share worth taking. →

    iPhone 17 is the best selling iPhone ever with first year revenue of $170 billion → The iPhone 17 series took more than $170 billion in first-year revenue, an 11% increase over the 16 series, with the base model alone growing revenue 1.3x over its predecessor and ranking as the best-selling smartphone in the world in the first half. China drove the gain, up 35% on wholesale revenue and close to a quarter of series revenue, on base-variant upgrades. The lineup worked because Pro features moved down to the base tier. That is a tough act for the 18 to follow. →

    Apple Watch Is Growing in a Shrinking Market → Global smartwatch shipments fell 4% year over year in the second quarter while Apple’s climbed 14%, the fastest growth of the five largest brands, taking share from 17% to 20.1%. It is not only phones and Macs and tablets. The pattern now shows up in every category at once. That is more than a memory shortage can explain. →


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  4. Apple Watch Is Growing in a Shrinking Market

    Nota Bene · 4 comments

    Global smartwatch shipments fell 4% year over year in the second quarter. However, Apple’s shipments climbed 14%, the fastest growth among the five largest brands. Its global market share increased to 20.1% from 17%

    Source: Benzinga

    NB: It's not only phones and Macs and tablets. The watch apparently is growing in a shrinking market. This might be more than the memory shortage.

    The flaw is to think that there is a market only for those who already own "smartwatches" and the options are either to encourage upgrades or switchers from other watches. I doubt an Android watch user will switch to Apple Watch because they like the watch only.

    Apple says frequently that "half of buyers of Watch are new to the product" or something to this effect. This implies either switching but more likely buying their first smartwatch.

    There is so much non-consumption to conquer. The fact that fewer Android watches are sold may be indicative of fatigue with the platform or adoption of screenless wearable health monitors.

     

     

  5. Asymco Office Hours Duo: Sunnyvale and Boston

    Invitation Office Hours

    Two cities, two sessions, two happy hours.

    Apple's first keynote under John Ternus is behind us. We are marking it with an Asymco Office Hours Duo: one on the West Coast, one on the East Coast. Join each live Q&A in person or remotely. In-person sessions are followed by an Asymco Happy Hour.

    Sign up and latest updates at asymco.com/live.

    West Coast: Sunnyvale, Friday, September 11

    Week in Review: The Apple Release, 4–5:30pm PT / 7–8:30pm ET (recorded)

    In person: Sunnyvale Downtown.
    Asymco Happy Hour, 5:30–7pm PT. Hang out with Horace & co.

    Remote: Join online.

    This session has taken place. The recording and transcript are available to Asymco One subscribers.

    East Coast: Boston, Friday, September 18

    Asymco Office Hours September, 4–5:30pm ET / 1–2:30pm PT (recorded)

    In person: Boston Seaport.
    Asymco Happy Hour, 5:30–7pm ET. Hang out with Horace & co.

    Remote: Join online.

    Register In Person → or Remote →


    Venue details are on the ticket. Asymco One subscribers are guaranteed seats, can sign up for free, and will have access to the recordings and transcripts shortly after each event.

  6. IPhone 17 is the best selling iPhone ever with first year revenue for $170 billion

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Tough act to follow for iPhone 18?

    “The iPhone 17 series stands out as Apple’s strongest lineup in years, with the base model inheriting features once reserved for Pro variants and the 17 Pro series delivering powerful Apple silicon, a standout camera system, impressive design and greater choice in color, material and finish,” said Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak. “The iPhone 17 series has resonated with a remarkably broad user base, from first-time upgraders drawn to Pro-level features at the base tier to loyal Pro users pushing for the latest Apple silicon and camera performance. The iPhone 17 base model’s revenue grew 1.3x over its predecessor during the first year. It was also the No. 1 best-selling smartphone model globally in H1 2026 in terms of units, followed by the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max. The iPhone 17e, the most affordable model of the line-up, also saw a powerful performance.”

    In terms of regional markets, China was the biggest driver of revenue growth for the iPhone 17 series, with wholesale revenue up 35% compared with the iPhone 16 series and accounting for nearly 24% of global iPhone 17 series revenue, largely due to base-variant upgrades. Japan, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) and the Asia-Pacific markets posted healthy gains. Strong demand in these markets helped offset moderate growth in mature markets like North America and Europe and contributed to the overall revenue increase.

    Source: Counterpoint Research

    NB: This is an 11% increase over the iPhone 16 series’…

    …wholesale revenue in its first year. Strong demand across the lineup, especially for the base and Pro Max variants, supported by a stronger replacement cycle, contributed to this record revenue.

    Counterpoint says that adding foldable could raise Apple’s overall iPhone ASP, while the later launch of lower-priced models could broaden the portfolio and sustain sales momentum into the following cycle.

    The extension of the 17's presence as the prime model into Spring will be seen as a genius move.

     

     

  7. Apple now in third place in US PC market share

    Nota Bene · 2 comments

    32% growth as market shrinks

    Apple moved into third place ahead of Lenovo, with US PC shipments growing 32.1% YoY, supported by a full quarter of MacBook Neo availability. This lifted Apple’s share of the US consumer PC segment to 29.4%. Apple also continued to expand in the business segment, where shipment grew 50.6%.

    Dell recorded the largest decline among the major PC vendors, with shipments falling 8.8% as component allocation shifted away from entry-level systems; its US Chromebook shipments fell 47.0%, against a 10.0% decline for the overall US Chromebooks market. HP shipments fell 3.7%, although both HP and Dell recorded revenue growth as higher ASPs offset lower shipment volumes. Lenovo shipments increased 2.0%, slightly outperforming the overall market, supported by consumer demand.

    Source: Omdia

    NB: Consumer PC shipments expected to decline 13.6% in…

    …2026. Commercial PCs forecast to decline 9.3% for the full year. It seems to me that Apple has a shot at beating Dell. That will be a noteworthy footnote. The parallel to how the phone market is reshaping is uncanny.

     

     

  8. Apple acquires Sonera. The next pivot point for interfaces?

    Nota Bene · 4 comments

    Part of a pattern

    Sonera has developed a new sensing modality that non-invasively measures magnetic fields generated by the body, in contrast with the electrical sensing techniques commonly used today. This proprietary technology holds the key to making brain activity as easy to measure as heart rate, temperature, and other physiological signals, and enabling data-backed insights related to movement, health, thoughts, and emotions.

    The press release, first discovered by MacRumors, mentions an S1 chip which could “enable an entirely new class of consumer wearables and experiences based on muscle activity.”
    Sonera’s proprietary approach “measures magnetic fields produced by the electrical currents from neural activity” and thus bypasses the need for direct skin contact.

    It’s unclear how much progress Sonera has been able to make since that 2023 press release. But clearly, Apple found something of value in their technology.

    Source: 9to5Mac

    NB: My thesis is that Apple has always placed itself at the interface layer between human and machine. The original "personal" computer, the various input methods (mouse, trackpad, scroll wheel, multi-touch, glance&sensor, spatial computing and audio). The pattern of acquisitions of technologies which deduce or detect human intention including hand/facial gestures, motion sensing, biometrics, and health are part of a pattern.

    In this case it's a form of sensing that I was not even aware of: magnetic fields. Sonera developed a magnetometer designed to measure weak magnetic fields generated by brain activity in a portable and cost-effective device. The company's magnetometer works on acoustically driven ferromagnetic resonance and can operate at room temperature and in portable form factors with sensitivity, enabling technological industries to expand access to the powerful neurodiagnostic tool, as well as open the door to the first practical, non-invasive brain-computer interface.

    The company appears to have been spun out of Berkely in 2018 so presumably the research predates this by a few years.

    The next stage of human/computer interaction…

    …might be enabled by these subtle methods of intention detection. The old adage that 80% of human communications are non-verbal gives some credence to the notion that computers need to read us better.

    So whereas spending on inference is approaching infinity, Apple is quietly investing in interfaces. The question underlying this is whether humans are still the interesting points of investment. Humanism in computing might be less attractive to capital today but I'm willing to wager that humans will still be the pivot point for profitability.

     

     

  9. Asymco Bulletin 029 - Sep 6, 2026

    Bulletin

    The Asymmetric Weekly

    Look Ahead

    Friday 11 September, Time TBD. We are holding an in-real-life Office Hours, either in Boston or the Bay Area, open to Asymco One subscribers. We will be broadcasting the event live. If you would be interested in attending, write to events@asymco.com.


    Research

    Deploying Enterprise AI on Apple Hardware is Suddenly a no-Brainer

    Apple’s AI angle in the enterprise There was a time when Apple’s point to the Enterprise buyer was that Apple products were ultimately more cost effective and productive. The total cost of ownership was lower as the products were cheaper to maintain and lasted longer and users were more productive as the user experience frictions were lower than Windows. The problem was that Apple devices were at odds with IT policies and standards. Everything from device management, software licensing, identity and authentication management, migration, training, security were built excluding the Apple platforms. The Microsoft world was interlocking and impenetrable even →


    Nota Bene

    IDC lowers smartphone market volume estimates again → IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026, revised down from 13.9%, which would be the steepest annual contraction on record. Second half shipments are set to drop more than 27% while ASP rises 27% to $581, because the memory tsunami has arrived and consumers are paying the AI bill. The era of the cheap smartphone has ended. IDC also credits Apple’s foldable with altering the market’s trajectory, which mistakes how markets are actually created. →

    The first surgical Apple Vision Pro application approved by the FDA → Stryker’s SportSuite Vision received De Novo authorization on July 17, making it the first application cleared for intraoperative use with Apple Vision Pro, and the first live procedure was a hip arthroscopy at Duke Health. Separately, Nabla is running AI clinical dictation on device on Apple computers. Regulatory clearance is the hard part, and it has now been cleared. Spatial computing has moved from demonstration to the operating room. →


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  10. The first surgical Apple Vision Pro application approved by the FDA

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Surgical Precision

    Stryker recently announced the successful completion of the first hip arthroscopy procedure using its SportSuite Vision application on Apple Vision Pro at Duke Health. The milestone follows the FDA's De Novo authorization for the application in July, making it the first surgical application approved for intraoperative use with Apple's mixed reality headset.

    Following the FDA's De Novo authorization on July 17, SportSuite Vision became the first application cleared for intraoperative use with Apple Vision Pro, establishing a new regulatory benchmark for spatial computing in the operating room. The first live use of the technology took place during a hip arthroscopy at Duke Health, where orthopedic surgeon Chad Mather III performed the procedure, demonstrating the platform's transition from regulatory clearance to real-world clinical adoption at a nationally recognized academic medical center.

    Source: Yahoo Finance

    NB: Separately, Nabla is providing AI-based clinical dictation on-device for Apple computers.

    As with the work of Dr. Tommy Korn, the benefits for surgeons is to make hip arthroscopy more intuitive by keeping critical clinical information within the surgeon's line of sight throughout the procedure. Instead of looking at multiple monitors around the operating room, surgeons can arrange key indicators based on their preferred workflow and access it within the sterile field. This creates a more comfortable environment, reducing unnecessary head movement and keeps essential information easily visible during surgery.

    Initially the Apple Vision Pro is providing efficiency innovations for surgery. Ultimately, as we shall see, it will compete with non-consumption and create new demand for procedures and allow non-experts to do more of the work currently requiring expert-only attention.

     

  11. IDC lowers smartphone market volume estimates again: Now down 16.7%, lowered from previous estimate of down 13.9%. ASPs to rise 27%.

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    The era of the cheap smartphone has ended

    Highly anticipated foldable launches from Apple and Huawei Technologies next week are expected to offer a much-needed lifeline to a subdued global smartphone market, which is bracing for an estimated 17 per cent decline in 2026.

    Analysts are counting on Apple’s foldable debut to lift a sluggish smartphone sector reeling from soaring component costs.

    “Apple’s entry into the foldable market has done more than reignite growth in a category that was losing momentum,” Nabila Popal, senior research director at research firm IDC, said on Wednesday. “It has fundamentally altered the market’s trajectory.”

    Popal projected that Apple would ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, capturing about 40 per cent of the global foldable market.

    “Apple is positioned to challenge Huawei and Samsung for leadership in markets where they have long dominated – an extraordinary outcome for a product expected to be less than two years into its life cycle,” Popal said.

    Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 16.7 per cent this year, which would mark their steepest annual contraction on record, according to IDC’s latest report. The forecast is down from the research firm’s previous estimate of a 13.9 per cent decline, issued last quarter.

    “The memory tsunami that we warned about is now hitting the market in full, and consumers are starting to pay the AI bill,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice-president for worldwide client devices at IDC. “The era of the cheap smartphone has ended."

    “From here, the winners will be the vendors with the scale and supply leverage to hold demand at prices consumers have never had to pay before.”

    Source: https://stocks.apple.com/ACvhd8-EKTWW8B7IQLPHQHg

    NB: Second half of 2026 shipments are expected to fall by more than 27%. ASP is forecast to rise 27% to $581 this year (revised from $550). The IDC view that Apple will shake up the foldable market is a mistaken understanding of how markets are created.

    There is no "foldable market" since the market is not defined by form factor or particular mechanism of operation. There is no "thin phone" market or "touch ID" market. The market is delineated by iOS vs. Android with significant fragmentation within Android between OS variants but also between vendors and their distribution partnerships. It is then sub-divided by price and jobs to be done.

    The possibility that Apple will launch a foldable means that Apple will create the market for iOS folding phones. That market currently has a size of zero. Its potential size remains to be determined but it probably has been estimated by Apple on the basis of their knowledge of their customer base.

    The second aspect of this article is on the change in IDC's estimate for the year. This is not a change in thesis but on the scale of the decline in volumes and increase in pricing.

    "Smaller Android brands anchored in the entry tiers face the hardest stretch in the industry’s history, and some will not clear it. The market that emerges on the other side of the crisis, when the memory supply finally stabilizes in 2028, will be smaller in units, larger in value, and far more concentrated at the top. The cheap smartphone era is not pausing. It is over."

    The idea that a mature market enters a "post low-end phase" or the end of the cheap smartphone is a development that needs far deeper consideration.

    I will address this in a research note separately.