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  1. Asymco Bulletin 002 / March 1, 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending March 1, 2026.

    Office Hours

    Our first Office Hours interactive seminar and Ask Me Anything questions/answer session will be on March 4th, after, presumably all the new announcements Apple will be making during the week. I will be broadcasting to you en vivo y en directo from Paris.

    Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A

    Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A → Join us for an exclusive Asymco One live Q&A on March 4 at 3pm ET to dissect Apple's latest business moves. →

    Research

    How many Apple users are in China?

    Greater China (GC) is a specific reporting segment for Apple, encompassing Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, with a combined population nearing 1.5 billion. This region is not just a significant contributor to Apple's revenue—accounting for 18% of net sales in Q4 2025—but also a dynamic landscape of technological adoption and consumer behavior. The smartphone user base in GC has surged from 690 million in 2016 to nearly a billion in 2025, with projections reaching 1.08 billion by 2029.

    The iOS ecosystem within GC exhibits varied dynamics across its constituent regions. While Macao maintains a steady iOS share of around 60%, Mainland China and Taiwan show different trajectories. Analyzing these trends through mobile OS share data reveals iOS's ascent, suggesting robust potential for further penetration and user engagement. As Apple navigates this complex market, understanding GC's historical growth patterns and future prospects is crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities and sustaining its competitive edge. →

    Nota Bene

    Apple #1 phone vendor in Europe → Apple leads Q4 2025 with a 7% YoY shipment rise driven by iPhone 17, while Samsung follows with 4% growth; Xiaomi faces a 6% decline amid shifting regional dynamics. →

    Are Solid State Batteries Finally Here? → Donut Lab has partnered with VTT for independent battery tests, with full reports and videos to follow. →

    iPhone becomes India’s top single export item → In 2025, Apple's iPhone exports from India, driven by Tata and Foxconn plants and a robust supply chain, reached $23 billion, making smartphones the top export category. →

    Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating → Apple's Services, beyond just the App Store, are poised for robust growth, driven by global market expansion and strong hardware demand. →

    Here’s why demand for Macs has spiked → Mac lead times have surged to multi-year highs due to increased demand, notably impacting models like Mac Studio, MacBook Pro M4, and Mac Mini. →

    A resource for AVP news → "AVP VIP offers a weekly, ad-free digest of tech news and insights, accessible to Asymco One members." →

    Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year → Apple revamps the Mac mini with M4 chips and boosts U.S. chip sourcing, starting at $599 without display, amid rising demand. →

    Apple Pay Aiming Launch in India This Year → Apple Pay aims to launch in India by late 2026, pending regulatory approvals and fee negotiations with card issuers. →

    iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information → Apple's iPhone and iPad achieve unprecedented NATO compliance, marking a pivotal shift in secure mobile technology acceptance. →

    Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger → In an interview, Apple's Eddy Cue highlighted Brazil as the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Apple TV subscribers, while noting potential impacts from proposed streaming regulations and a possible Netflix-Warner deal. Specific user and device numbers were not disclosed. →

    DRAM Shortage Will Cause ‘Seismic Shift’ in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected → A looming DRAM shortage due to AI demand will slash smartphone sales by 13% in 2026, forcing a market shift towards pricier devices, with relief not expected until mid-2027. →

    Asymco One gives you full access to our research, analysis, and commentary. Subscribe with code BULLETIN for a discount.

    Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.

  3. Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    How big is Brazil for Apple, exactly?

    In an interview with Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, Cue emphasized Brazil’s growing role in Apple TV’s global business, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to theatrical releases, and commented on Netflix’s attempt to acquire Warner Bros.

    Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest and fastest-growing market in terms of subscribers. He adds that Apple is closely watching proposed streaming regulations in the country that could require national content quotas:

    During the conversation, Cue also said Apple remains committed to doing theatrical releases through partnerships with traditional distributors. And although he recognized that “the bar for leaving home and going to the movie theater” is getting increasingly higher, he said:

    Finally, Cue commented on how a potential Netflix–Warner deal could affect Apple, which has partnered with Warner on films including F1: The Movie.

    Source: 9to5Mac

    NB: To appreciate the Brazilian market for Apple we need to know the number of users, iPhones and devices in use. That information will be published...

  4. iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    First and only, defining moment

    Today, Apple announced iPhone and iPad are the first and only consumer devices in compliance with the information assurance requirements of NATO nations. This enables iPhone and iPad to be used with classified information up to the NATO restricted level without requiring special software or settings — a level of government certification no other consumer mobile device has met.

    iPhone and iPad previously received approval to handle classified German government data on devices using native iOS and iPadOS security measures, following an extensive evaluation by the Federal Office for Information Security (Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik, or BSI). Now, iPhone and iPad running iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 are certified for such use in all NATO nations.

    As part of this effort, BSI conducted exhaustive technical assessments, comprehensive testing, and deep security analysis, ensuring Apple’s built-in platform security capabilities met NATO nations’ exacting operational and assurance requirements.

    “Secure digital transformation is only successful if information security is considered from the beginning in the development of mobile products,” said Claudia Plattner, BSI’s president. “Expanding on BSI’s rigorous audit of iOS and iPadOS platform and device security for use in classified German information environments, we are pleased to confirm the compliance under NATO nations’ assurance requirements.”

    The approval marks a defining moment for Apple’s mobile platforms, as iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 are now listed on the NATO Information Assurance Product Catalogue in recognition of their built-in security capabilities.

    Source: Apple Newsroom

    NB: There is a "movement" or inclination to reduce or eliminate dependencies among European countries and companies on US technologies. This is due to the perceived and actual threat posed by the current US Administration...

  5. Apple March 4 Special Event - Q&A with Horace Dediu & Ben Bajarin

    Office Hours · 1 comment

    Following the Apple Event on March 4, we will be broadcasting the inaugural Asymco One Office Hours as a live Q&A session with Horace Dediu & Ben Bajarin.

    We've scheduled the session for 3pm ET / 12pm PT to allow time for reflection and analysis. Our focus will be on on business implications. Horace will frame learnings from the event, followed by live Q&A.

    March 4 Office Hours Sign-Up
    Please provide your information below. We will notify you of the participation details before the event.

    Due to high demand and limited capacity for the live event, we are prioritizing Asymco One subscribers. To guarantee your spot on the live Q&A, subscribe to Asymco One.

    If you would like to review the proceedings, sign up for Asymco Bulletin.