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  4. Asymco Bulletin 001 / 22 Feb 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Feb 22, 2026.

    Research

    Teen Survey Update: What happens when teens grow up?

    Latest data indicates 88% of teens own and intend to purchase iPhones, marking a decade-long trend of increasing adoption. This phenomenon transcends mere functionality; the iPhone has become a cultural icon, symbolizing status and identity.

    Unlike other Apple products, such as Apple TV+ or Apple Music, which struggle for traction among teens, the iPhone's appeal is deeply woven into the social fabric, partly due to generational continuity—the children of early iPhone adopters are now loyal users themselves.

    In contrast, social media platforms illustrate the fickle nature of tech usage among younger demographics. While Facebook remains prevalent among older millennials, Gen Z gravitates towards Instagram and TikTok, reflecting shifts in cultural preferences and digital behaviors.

    For Apple, success in services like Music and TV+ hinges on leveraging existing family dynamics through bundling.

    Read More →→→

    Apple in Europe: How many iPhone switchers are addressable in the near term?

    On the Q4 call, Tim Cook highlighted Greater China’s 38% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by record iPhone sales, strong upgrade activity, and double-digit retail traffic gains.

    Europe, however, drew little attention—despite generating more revenue for Apple than China. This is peculiar.

    Europe’s smartphone market shows steady structural gains for iOS. Since 2018, share has risen from 24% to 39%, while Android has fallen from 74% to 60%—a 15-point swing equal to roughly 70 million additional users. With an installed base near 459 million users versus about 300 million in the U.S., Europe combines scale with affluence.

    In sum, the pattern for Apple in Europe is not saturation but share transfer, signaling durable competitive strength in a mature market and an inkling of how all markets will eventually behave in maturity.

    Read More →→→

    Estimating 2035 iPhone Users

    In the last quarter Apple reported 2.5 billion active devices. Of those, I estimate 1.6 billion are iPhones.

    Using this as a base, I've created an iPhone installed base estimate looking forward to 2030, integrating Statcounter’s market share data, Ericsson’s global smartphone user forecasts, and BankMyCell’s smartphone install base.

    The sources broadly align through 2025, though Statcounter’s historical iOS share (2017–2023) diverges somewhat, possibly reflecting Android’s heavier web traffic footprint due to usage patterns and bot activity rather.

    Taken together, the data points to iPhone nearing 2 billion active devices by 2030, consistent with overall smartphone adoption. Android’s projected rise toward 4.5 billion users signals continuing headroom.

    If switching dynamics and monetization trends persist, Apple’s ecosystem could expand to 2.5–3 billion users by 2035, with growth thereafter driven by switching and increased engagement depth and value extraction per user.

    Read More →→→

    Nota Bene

    Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4 → Apple is hosting intimate, global "Special Apple Experience" events on March 4, 2026, likely unveiling new products like the iPhone 17e and M5-powered MacBooks, marking a fresh twist on traditional live-streamed launches.

    Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts → The "pod" in podcasts originated from Apple's iPod, with the company popularizing the medium by integrating podcasting into iTunes in 2005, and continuing to innovate with features like video podcast support and dynamic ad insertion.

    Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color → Apple's upcoming lineup, featuring color-excited anticipation for the iPhone 17e and modest updates to iPads, promises subtle yet intriguing tech advancements.

    Dan Ives Says Apple’s AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion → Apple's unparalleled distribution through its vast user base offers a significant competitive edge for rapidly monetizing AI innovations, potentially adding $1.5 trillion in value.

    While big tech burns cash on AI, Apple waits → As foundation models commoditize, Apple strategically curates top AI tech into its ecosystem, prioritizing user experience over engine development.

    Secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share → Apple faces memory cost inflation potentially raising iPhone prices, yet its strong ecosystem and execution provide resilience, whereas competitors like Samsung may struggle more due to lesser volume leverage.

    iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche → Six skiers survived a deadly Lake Tahoe avalanche by using iPhone's Emergency SOS via satellite, highlighting its transition from luxury to essential. This feature enabled crucial communication with rescuers in remote areas lacking cellular service. The evolution mirrors mobile phones but faces slower adoption due to satellite bandwidth constraints.

    The US Supreme Court has ruled against US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a raft of global tariffs → Apple and other affected companies may soon seek refunds for tariffs paid, following the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate Trump's tariffs, though the exact timeline and amount remain uncertain.

    Bankers complain that Apple has a tight grip on mobile payments → Canadian banks struggled to compete in the mobile wallet market, dominated by tech giants like Apple and Google, due to their risk-averse nature clashing with tech's innovation-driven approach.

    The all new Asymco One

    Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing. → Asymco celebrates 17 years of insightful Apple analysis, launching Asymco One to guide stakeholders through Apple's evolving era with comprehensive content and community engagement. →

    Introducing: Asymco One Office Hours → Join Asymco One's monthly Office Hours with Horace to get live insights on Apple's business and financials, with special editions during key events.

    All Asymco Podcasts. All in One: Asymco One. → Exciting news: All Asymco Podcasts now under Asymco One subscription with remastered classics and new episodes.

    Asymco One gives you full access to our research, analysis, and commentary. Subscribe with code BULLETIN for a discount.

    Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.

  8. Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing

    Invitation

    The all-in-one on Apple

    In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

    This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

    • During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
    • Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
    • Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

    The increases in multiples:

    • 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
    • 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
    • 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
    • Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
      36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

    The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

    That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

    When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

    So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

    And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

    Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

    Let’s learn together. 

    To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One. 

    Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:

    1. Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene. 
    2. Reconsider your assumptions with Research. 
    3. Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin. 
    4. Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts. 
    5. Get your questions answered during Office Hours. 
    6. Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
    7. Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.

    All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.

    Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.

    It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone. 

    For early adopters we are offering a discount of $150 with the code INNOVATE.

    I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person. 

    Yours,

    Horace Dediu

    –
    Asymco One: About | Subscribe
    Use code PIONEER to save 25%.

  9. iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche

    Nota Bene

    From luxury to necessity

    Six skiers who survived a deadly avalanche near Lake Tahoe stayed connected to rescuers by using Emergency SOS via satellite on iPhone. The group was on a multi-day backcountry trip in the Sierra Nevada mountains when the avalanche struck. While six people survived, eight died and one remains missing and presumed dead. During the rescue effort, survivors relied on satellite connectivity to communicate with authorities for hours.

    According to a report from The New York Times, the survivors used Emergency SOS via satellite to stay in touch with the Nevada County Sheriff’s Office while rescue teams worked in difficult terrain. The feature allowed them to send and receive messages even though there was no cellular or Wi Fi coverage in the area.

    Don O’Keefe, Chief of Law Enforcement for the California Office of Emergency Services, described how critical that communication was during the operation.

    Source: The Mac Observer