Latest from Asymco
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Apple in Europe: How many iPhone switchers are addressable in the near term?
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Introducing Asymco One
The all-in-one on Apple
In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50.
This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.
- During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion. 17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion.
- Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5.
- Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion.
The increases in multiples:
- 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
- 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
- 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
- Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth.
The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with.
That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.
When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.
So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so. This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge. A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.
And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey.
Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.
Let’s learn together.
To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One.
Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:
- Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene.
- Reconsider your assumptions with Research.
- Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin.
- Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts.
- Get your questions answered during Office Hours.
- Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
- Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.
All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.
Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.
It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone.
But for you, dear reader, who have been with us for so long, I am offering a discount of $250 with the code PIONEER.
I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person.
Yours,
Horace Dediu
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Asymco One: About | Subscribe
Use code PIONEER to save 25%. -
Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color
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Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts
Remembering where the "pod" in podcasts came from
Apple first brought podcasting to a mainstream audience when it added the category to iTunes in 2005. And the dedicated Apple Podcasts app has been a central part of the landscape ever since. Today, users can get the app in more than 170 countries and regions. It offers millions of shows across hundreds of categories, plus features like Enhance Dialogue mode, playback speeds from 0.5x to 3x, automatic chapter creation, timed links and transcripts for over 125 million episodes in 13 languages.
A major update to Apple Podcasts will introduce full video podcast support this spring using the company’s HTTP Live Streaming (HLS) technology, the iPhone giant said Monday.
The update promises a seamless experience for both viewers and podcast creators, with new tools for monetization and content distribution that Apple said will set a new standard for the medium.
“By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we’re putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts,” said Eddy Cue, Apple SVP of Services.Source: Cult of Mac
NB: YouTube has become a juggernaut swallowing music, podcasts, shorts/reels and not least of all movies and TV. It's hard to overstate just what a hegemony this has become. I must say that it has always been evident to me as a low-end disruption to video. It became the tail that wags the dog of entertainment. Apple's efforts can only be distinguished as "premium". Premium TV, premium music and premium podcasting (and premium News). The challenge for Apple is to attract creators not just listeners. We do distribute our Asymetric Podcast on Apple Podcasts and we will move to video but it's clear that there are other platforms that have higher volumes. The big news is support for ads.
Creators can dynamically insert video ads — including host-read spots — unlocking access to the broader video advertising market while maintaining full creative control.
"Apple does not charge hosting providers or creators to distribute podcasts on Apple Podcasts, whether via traditional RSS/MP3 or HLS video. Apple will charge participating ad networks an impression-based fee for the delivery of dynamic ads in HLS video on Apple Podcasts starting later this year."
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Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4
A "Special Apple Experience"
Apple today announced a "special Apple Experience" in New York, London, and Shanghai, taking place on March 4, 2026 at 9:00am ET.
Apple Announces Special Event in New York Feature
Apple invited select members of the media to the event in three major cities around the world. It is simply described as a "special Apple Experience," and there is no further information about what it may entail. The invitation features a 3D Apple logo design composed of yellow, green, and blue discs.
It is notable that Apple is specifically using the word "experience," rather than "event." Unlike a full live-streamed event from Apple Park, the March 4 event in other cities is likely to be smaller in scale.
The announcement of several new Apple products is believed to be imminent, including the iPhone 17e, MacBook Pro with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, eighth-generation, iPad Air, 12th-generation iPad, and more. A refreshed Studio Display and an all-new low-cost MacBook with the A18 chip are also possibilities, along with a new Apple TV and HomePod mini.
This "Apple Experience" could involve Apple's announcement of some of these products and provide an opportunity for the media to get hands-on with the new devices around the world.Source: MacRumors
NB: Providing live venues for a streamed event in New York, London, and Shanghai is a novel approach and clearly an evolution of the notion of event marketing that Apple pioneered. We look forward to seeing what is special and what a remote experience entails.
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Teen Survey Update: What happens when teens grow up?
What's the role of fashion in tech choice?
Apple's iPhone continues to be incredibly popular with U.S. teens, according to Piper Sandler's latest biannual teen survey. 88 percent of teens surveyed said that they own an iPhone, and 88 percent said they intend to purchase an iPhone as their next device.
Teen iPhone ownership numbers have increased three percent since April 2024, and are near record highs. The iPhone has long been the most popular smartphone among teens in the United States, and there has been steady growth in teen ownership. 10 years ago in April 2015, 66 percent of teens surveyed owned an iPhone.
Though teen interest in the iPhone is high, other Apple products and services are not as popular. Apple has not made inroads with Apple TV+, and it continues to trail Spotify as the most popular music service among teenagers.
45 percent of teens surveyed have a paid Spotify subscription, while Apple Music is the second most popular streaming service with 30 percent of teens reporting an Apple Music subscription. Because Spotify has a free tier, it's still the most popular service overall, with 65 percent of teens using it. Apple TV+ is not popular with teens, and less than one percent say they watch Apple TV+ shows. Netflix and YouTube were most popular with 31 percent and 26 percent of teens reporting usage, respectively.
Approximately 31 percent of teens own a virtual reality device, but most of those have an Oculus (25 percent). Just one percent of teens have an Apple Vision Pro, which is not a surprise given the price of Apple's device. Of teens that have a VR device, 60 percent said that they seldom use it, with just four percent reporting being a frequent daily user.
Piper Sandler surveyed 6,455 teens across 43 states for the spring 2025 report.
This data was collected in the spring of last year.
I found the above in my archives. Ownership in 2010 was about 18%, 2015 it was 66% and 2025 it was 88%. The saturation at 88% (for both ownership and intent) was achieved relatively quickly but most importantly, it remains steady.
Now consider that the teens of 2007 are having kids of their own. A 15 year old in 2007 is now 34 and a 19 year old is now 38 and some have a teen of their own.
At 19 years, the iPhone brand has transitioned across one generation with not only resilience but with deeper entrenchment. This cannot be said for other contemporary technologies, e.g. social media. While elders use Facebook the young have moved on. Perhaps to Instagram (25-34, 76% 18-29) or perhaps to TikTok (16-24) which has the strongest position for younger, Gen Z users.
Here are some additional data points on predisposition for social media:
Facebook (25-49): Largest group is 25-34 (31.1%), but also high usage among 30-49 year olds.
LinkedIn (30-49): Professional focus, ideal for B2B and adults 30-49.
YouTube (18-64+): Broad, with the highest usage (93%) in the 18-29 bracket.
Pinterest (30-49): Popular with older, female audiences.There is quite a lot of divergence and only YouTube seems to be fairly steady across age groups.
Moreover, as the Piper Sandler survey suggests, Apple Services is not the same as the iPhone. The adoption of Music and TV are not a broad-based and that has a lot to do with disposable income. The mechanism for adoption should be the family plan whereby teens are automatically enrolled through their parents in to Music and TV+. After all, teen iPhones are likely purchased by parents. That services bundling is where Apple must focus its effort.
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Introducing: Asymco One Office Hours
Ever had a question about Apple’s business or financial fundamentals?
Starting this month, as part of Asymco One, we’ll host monthly Office Hours, a call-in shows where our own Horace “the Horacle” answers your pressing questions, live.
Regular monthly sessions will be announce with plenty of notice for questions. Special editions timed to major Apple moments: quarterly earnings calls, product launches, and WWDC.
Learn more about Asymco One.
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All Asymco Podcasts. All in One: Asymco One.
Podcast #Asymcar #Asymetric #Critical Path · 2 comments
For the first time, we will be bringing all Asymco Podcasts under the same roof, included in Asymco One subscription.
Asymco One subscriptions will include access not only to the new episodes of the Asymetric Podcast, but also to all classic Asymco Podcast content.
We have already started the process of remastering, transcription, and indexing archives of: The Critical Path, Asymcar, and Asymetric.
Watch Asymco Podcasts for the latest updates.
Learn more about Asymco One.
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Apple at 50
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Goldman Sachs: App Store spending accelerates 7% YoY in January 2026
