iOS

I took the venerable Consumer Platform Adoption Ramps chart and added Android and the latest data on iTunes, iPod and iOS.

To make it more readable (but conceptually more complicated) I put the data on a log chart.

Discussion

The time span covered is nine and a half years. The top of the graph marks the one billion threshold. Reaching one billion in less than 10 years is an interesting challenge for any platform and, at first glance, it seems that both iOS and Android have a shot at it. This does not seem likely for any of the other platforms.

The challenge is that as penetration grows, it's natural for the slope for the lines to become shallower. Some platforms are simply not able to address one billion users:

• i-Mode, AOL and other technologies with localized value networks are clearly limited to populations in their home countries.
• iTunes is limited by the use of a PC, which has a small footprint in under-developed countries (dependency by iOS on iTunes should throw up a red flag here).
• The iPod was embraced and extended by more ubiquitous mobile phones.

In contrast, mobile phones in general and smartphone platforms in particular have potential to reach a billion users (per platform.)

To wit, note that iOS and Android have similar curves to date and are both likely to overtake iPod and any other contender.

So for the obligatory theological question: Will Android follow the curve of iOS or will it diverge and continue on a steeper trajectory? Does it matter?

Discuss...

• 300 Apple Stores
• 10 countries with Apple Stores
• >1 million store visitors some days
• 80k 1:1 sessions/week
• 120 million iOS devices sold to date
• 230k new iOS activations per day
• 6.5 Billion apps downloaded
• 200 apps downloaded every second
• 250k apps available on App Store
• 25k iPad apps available on App Store
• 275 million iPods sold
• #1 portable game player: iPod touch
• 50%+ of portable game device share US and world-wide
• 1.5 billion game and entertainment titles downloaded to iPod touch
• 11.7 billion songs downloaded from iTunes
• 450 million TV episodes downloaded from iTunes
• 100 million movies downloaded from iTunes
• 35 million books downloaded from iTunes
• 160 million iTunes accounts
• 23 countries for iTunes music downloads
• 12 million song library

On June 7th, 2010, at WWDC, Apple announced that they will have sold 100 million iOS devices some time during June 2010. Today, September 1st, Apple announced that 120 million iOS devices have been sold.

Assuming that 100 million was crossed half-way through June, then the additional 20 million units must have been sold during half of June, and all of July and August. That's approximately 20 million over 75 days or 267k units per day.

Apple also announced that there are 230k new iOS activations per day which seems consistent given that they classify these as "new" activations.

There is one huge implication of this figure:  Forecasts for iPhone, iPad and iPods may be too low. I had forecast 20 million units for the entire quarter (12.1 million iPhones, 4 million iPads and about 4 million iPod touch). The iPhone figure assumed 65% y/y growth at that looks way too low. There is still another month in the quarter meaning that the total could be 30% too low.

I will be updating the forecast accordingly.

Brian Marshall, an analyst with investment firm Gleacher & Co., predicts that Apple will have sold 200 million iOS devices by this time next year. He expects the iPhone and iPad to represent 68 percent of gross margins for 2010.

via Apple's mobile OS could move to more devices.

My expectations for the next 100 million were made in June:

My expectation is that well over 100 million iOS devices will sell during 2011, but even during the next 12 months (2H ’10 and 1H ’11) the total may well reach 100 million, making 200 million installed by June 2011 very likely.

The next 100 million iOS devices

My current expectation is that iPhone and iPad will account for 70 million additional iOS units for the twelve months following this June quarter. This excludes any Apple TV units moving to iOS.

As iOS moves to more of the iPod line-up it's quite possible that another 30 million iPads with iOS will ship in the same time frame making Marshall's forecast sound reasonable.

Much of what is published here relies on data, lots of data. It's important that data be published along with conclusions, but data in spreadsheets is often difficult to read. Spreadsheets are not "productized" so they are hard to explain and therefore impossible to share.

However, I am considering sharing the data I have in a format that is easier to read than a spreadsheet but richer than a screen shot of a chart.

To that end I've begun experimenting with a solution based on a service called Roambi. Interested readers can download Asymco authored "roambi" files which I call ADDs (Asymco Data Downloads) will display rich data sets on iOS devices. These representations are interactive and easy on the eyes.

Rather than bore with details, the following images should be sufficiently descriptive.

So, to start, I am making available the market data from the article Android's Pursuit of the Biggest Losers for your viewing pleasure.

Here is a quick FAQ about this new way of enjoying analysis:

• Q: What is an ADD?
• A: An ADD is an Asymco Data Download, a new way to look at the data behind the analysis with far more detail and a visually appealing representation.

• Q: How do I get ADDs?
• A: You will see the latest ADD featured in most pages in this blog and new ADDs will appear from time to time in blog articles. Here is an example:

• Q: What do I need to get and use ADDs?
• A: Any iOS device (iPod touch, iPad or iPhone) and download the Roambi visualizer app which is free.

• Q: Where do I get the Roambi app?
• A: Tap Here To Install Roambi

• Q: Is the iPad version different than the iPhone?
• A: Yes, much better.

• Q: Where can I get help on using the app?
• A: Hopefully you won't need help, but there is help in the app and at Roambi's site.

• Q: Will ADDs work with Android?
• A: No.

• Q: Will ADDs work with <insert non-iOS device here>?
• A: No.

• Q: Can I see ADDs on a Windows PC or with a Mac?
• A: No.

• Q: Can I download the actual spreadsheets?
• A: No.

• Q: How much does it cost?
• A: ADDs are free.

• Q: What if I see an error?
• A: Send me a message.

• Q: Will you publish more of this data, like the Apple financials?
• A: Yes. I hope to publish all my data. Stay tuned.

• Q: I don't have time to read your blog every day, can I just get the data?
• A: I'm considering ways of creating a "premium" service. If you are interested send me a message that you would like to receive email-based links. Send request to: horace.dediu -at- asymco.com.

Tap Here To Download

Tap Here To Install Roambi

RIMM shares dropped more than 5% after hours after company reported "light" units and a 20% rise in profit with a 24% rise in revenue.

RIMM sold 11.2 million units (of which 4.9 million were new subscribers and the rest replacement units--a deterioration in replacement rate). This represents 43% growth. The unit growth is nearly double the revenue rise implying a lower ASP ($300--half the iPhone) and margin (45.4%).

RIM passed another milestone: 100 millionth BlackBerry was sold during the quarter. We've noted before that Apple will also pass its 100 millionth iOS device this month. RIM sold 20 million units as of October 2007, right on the heels of the iPhone launch. That means that iOS grew 100 million to BlackBerry OS growing 80 million in the same time frame.

So why are shares at a P/E of 13? 20% EPS growth would be respectable numbers, but the smartphone market is growing faster than that. The implication is that RIMM is losing share and everyone is expecting that loss to accelerate.

Simona Jankowski from Goldman Sachs repeats her Sell rating. “RIM has now missed top-line expectations for three of the last four quarters, in our view demonstrating the building competitive pressures on its business from the iPhone and more recently from Android,” she writes. “We estimate that net subscriber additions in North America declined on a sequential basis, which we attribute primarily to the success of Android-based phones, such as the Motorola Droid and the HTC Incredible at Verizon.”

Research In Motion Limited (USA): NASDAQ:RIMM quotes & news - Google Finance.

As iOS crosses 100 million units sold 3 years after the platform launched, it's time to look forward to the next 100 million. My expectation is that well over 100 million iOS devices will sell during 2011, but even during the next 12 months (2H '10 and 1H '11) the total may well reach 100 million, making 200 million installed by June 2011 very likely.

Here is where the numbers will come from:

iPhone: Assuming only 50% growth (half of the average growth seen so far) gives 50 million units in the next 12 months.

iPad: 15 million base assumption

iPod: This is the most difficult to predict, but 46 million iPods will sell with a growth rate of -8% to -9%. If we consider the iPod touch part of the mix to be 40%, we get 19 million.

The total with these assumptions would be 84 million. A slightly higher growth rate for the iPhone would easily push the total to 100 million.

200 million devices in four years is quite a feat. Compare it to the growth of television which reached 50 million Americans in the first decade after commercial launch. Or consider the Netscape browser which only reached 50 million in its first four years or AOL which just crossed 20 million or in Japan where i-Mode reached 40 million users in the same time frame.

At 200 million, the iOS platform will be 18% the size of the world-wide television audience.