iPhone

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Apple today unveiled MacBook Neo, an all-new laptop that delivers the magic of the Mac at a breakthrough price. Apple’s all-new MacBook features a durable aluminum design, a stunning 13-inch Liquid Retina display, the power of Apple silicon, and all-day battery life — all for the breakthrough starting price of just $599.

"While many Chromebooks start lower than the Neo's $599 starting price point, there have been reports that disappearing margins could drive the cheap Windows laptop market into extinction by 2028." -Tom's Hardware

Source: Apple Newsroom

NB: The choice of a neo generation. MacBook Neo is a watershed event. First Mac with a…

Join us at Asymco Office Hours, for a Live Q&A about Apple with Horace Dediu & Ben Bajarin.

Today, Wed March 4, 3pm ET / 12p PT.

Double the storage, same price, higher margins

Apple today announced the new iPhone 17e, a powerful and affordable addition to the iPhone 17 lineup.

Source: Apple Newsroom

NB: iPhone 17e will start at 256GB of storage for $599…

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending March 1, 2026.

Office Hours

Our first Office Hours interactive seminar and Ask Me Anything questions/answer session will be on March 4th, after, presumably all the new announcements Apple will be making during the week. I will be broadcasting to you en vivo y en directo from Paris.

Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A → Join us for an exclusive Asymco One live Q&A on March 4 at 3pm ET to dissect Apple's latest business moves. →

Research

How many Apple users are in China?

Greater China (GC) is a specific reporting segment for Apple, encompassing Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, with a combined population nearing 1.5 billion. This region is not just a significant contributor to Apple's revenue—accounting for 18% of net sales in Q4 2025—but also a dynamic landscape of technological adoption and consumer behavior. The smartphone user base in GC has surged from 690 million in 2016 to nearly a billion in 2025, with projections reaching 1.08 billion by 2029.

The iOS ecosystem within GC exhibits varied dynamics across its constituent regions. While Macao maintains a steady iOS share of around 60%, Mainland China and Taiwan show different trajectories. Analyzing these trends through mobile OS share data reveals iOS's ascent, suggesting robust potential for further penetration and user engagement. As Apple navigates this complex market, understanding GC's historical growth patterns and future prospects is crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities and sustaining its competitive edge. →

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Nota Bene

Apple #1 phone vendor in Europe → Apple leads Q4 2025 with a 7% YoY shipment rise driven by iPhone 17, while Samsung follows with 4% growth; Xiaomi faces a 6% decline amid shifting regional dynamics. →

Are Solid State Batteries Finally Here? → Donut Lab has partnered with VTT for independent battery tests, with full reports and videos to follow. →

iPhone becomes India’s top single export item → In 2025, Apple's iPhone exports from India, driven by Tata and Foxconn plants and a robust supply chain, reached $23 billion, making smartphones the top export category. →

Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating → Apple's Services, beyond just the App Store, are poised for robust growth, driven by global market expansion and strong hardware demand. →

Here’s why demand for Macs has spiked → Mac lead times have surged to multi-year highs due to increased demand, notably impacting models like Mac Studio, MacBook Pro M4, and Mac Mini. →

A resource for AVP news → "AVP VIP offers a weekly, ad-free digest of tech news and insights, accessible to Asymco One members." →

Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year → Apple revamps the Mac mini with M4 chips and boosts U.S. chip sourcing, starting at $599 without display, amid rising demand. →

Apple Pay Aiming Launch in India This Year → Apple Pay aims to launch in India by late 2026, pending regulatory approvals and fee negotiations with card issuers. →

iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information → Apple's iPhone and iPad achieve unprecedented NATO compliance, marking a pivotal shift in secure mobile technology acceptance. →

Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger → In an interview, Apple's Eddy Cue highlighted Brazil as the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Apple TV subscribers, while noting potential impacts from proposed streaming regulations and a possible Netflix-Warner deal. Specific user and device numbers were not disclosed. →

DRAM Shortage Will Cause ‘Seismic Shift’ in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected → A looming DRAM shortage due to AI demand will slash smartphone sales by 13% in 2026, forcing a market shift towards pricier devices, with relief not expected until mid-2027. →

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First and only, defining moment

Today, Apple announced iPhone and iPad are the first and only consumer devices in compliance with the information assurance requirements of NATO nations. This enables iPhone and iPad to be used with classified information up to the NATO restricted level without requiring special software or settings — a level of government certification no other consumer mobile device has met.

iPhone and iPad previously received approval to handle classified German government data on devices using native iOS and iPadOS security measures, following an extensive evaluation by the Federal Office for Information Security (Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik, or BSI). Now, iPhone and iPad running iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 are certified for such use in all NATO nations.

As part of this effort, BSI conducted exhaustive technical assessments, comprehensive testing, and deep security analysis, ensuring Apple’s built-in platform security capabilities met NATO nations’ exacting operational and assurance requirements.

“Secure digital transformation is only successful if information security is considered from the beginning in the development of mobile products,” said Claudia Plattner, BSI’s president. “Expanding on BSI’s rigorous audit of iOS and iPadOS platform and device security for use in classified German information environments, we are pleased to confirm the compliance under NATO nations’ assurance requirements.”

The approval marks a defining moment for Apple’s mobile platforms, as iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 are now listed on the NATO Information Assurance Product Catalogue in recognition of their built-in security capabilities.

Source: Apple Newsroom

NB: There is a "movement" or inclination to reduce or eliminate dependencies among European countries and companies on US technologies. This is due to the perceived and actual threat posed by the current US Administration...

Greater China.

As previously reported, China represented 18% of net sales for Apple in the fourth quarter of 2025. This was up from 15% the year before and the third largest reporting segment. The segment grew by 37.9% year-on-year.

It's time to understand precisely how big this market is in terms of users, iPhone install base and device install base, with an eye toward understanding the history and potential for growth.

First, it's important to note that Apple refers to "Greater China" (GC) not just China. That means within this reporting segment are Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. The populations are approximately, 1.4 billion, 23.2 million, 7.5 million and 700k respectively.

Second, the population of smartphone users has been growing dramatically. In 2016 there were about 690 million (GC) and in 2025 the number is about 997 million. The forecast for 2029 is 1.08 billion.

Third, the share of iOS has been rising but at different rates in the three regions (Macao is excluded because of small relative size, but Apple is holding iOS share steady at about 60%.)

These graphs represent the trends in Mobile OS share as collected by Statcounter and trendlines for iOS are shown with projections to 2029.

Multiplying the share numbers by the user numbers, including projections gives the following iOS users summary.

A billion users are waiting

Apple Pay is set to go live in the Indian market by the end of 2026, according to a report by Business Standard. The service still requires regulatory approvals before it can go live in the country, but Apple is reportedly working with banks, regulators, and card networks to bring the payment service to India within the year, claims the publication's sources.

Once launched, Apple Pay is also expected to offer its Tap to Pay on iPhone feature, allowing users in India to make contactless payments at point-of-sale terminals via NFC. But before that can happen, Apple will have to negotiate fees with major card issuers for use of the payment gateway.

Source: MacRumors

NB: Apple is the biggest exporter out of India. That m…

Five iPhone assembly plants — three operated by Tata Group entities and two by Foxconn — supported by a supply chain of around 45 companies

Apple Inc.'s iPhone became India's top single export item in 2025, with shipments worth $23 billion, largely to the US, driven by the government's PLI scheme and supply chain diversification from China. Smartphones emerged as India's leading export category with Apple contributing 76 per cent.

Smartphones were India's top export category for the first time, surpassing automotive diesel fuel, with a total $30.13 billion worth of exports in the January-December period. Apple accounted for 76 per cent of total smartphone exports. Apple's five‑year PLI window is scheduled to end in March 2026.

Source: International Business Times

NB: During the last Active conference I discussed with the author of...

Up 7 percent y/y in Q4

As expected, Apple took the top spot in Q4 2025 and increased its share compared to Q4 2024, with shipments growing 7% YoY thanks to a strong performance by the iPhone 17 series.

Samsung took second place, with its shipments growing 4% YoY and share also increasing YoY to 29%.

Apple’s strong growth in Eastern Europe and increased competition in Western Europe ate into Xiaomi’s market share, causing a 6% YoY decline.

Source: Counterpoint

NB: Original article suggests bad news on the way ...

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Feb 22, 2026.

Research

Teen Survey Update: What happens when teens grow up?

Latest data indicates 88% of teens own and intend to purchase iPhones, marking a decade-long trend of increasing adoption. This phenomenon transcends mere functionality; the iPhone has become a cultural icon, symbolizing status and identity.

Unlike other Apple products, such as Apple TV+ or Apple Music, which struggle for traction among teens, the iPhone's appeal is deeply woven into the social fabric, partly due to generational continuity—the children of early iPhone adopters are now loyal users themselves.

In contrast, social media platforms illustrate the fickle nature of tech usage among younger demographics. While Facebook remains prevalent among older millennials, Gen Z gravitates towards Instagram and TikTok, reflecting shifts in cultural preferences and digital behaviors.

For Apple, success in services like Music and TV+ hinges on leveraging existing family dynamics through bundling.

Read More →→→

Apple in Europe: How many iPhone switchers are addressable in the near term?

On the Q4 call, Tim Cook highlighted Greater China’s 38% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by record iPhone sales, strong upgrade activity, and double-digit retail traffic gains.

Europe, however, drew little attention—despite generating more revenue for Apple than China. This is peculiar.

Europe’s smartphone market shows steady structural gains for iOS. Since 2018, share has risen from 24% to 39%, while Android has fallen from 74% to 60%—a 15-point swing equal to roughly 70 million additional users. With an installed base near 459 million users versus about 300 million in the U.S., Europe combines scale with affluence.

In sum, the pattern for Apple in Europe is not saturation but share transfer, signaling durable competitive strength in a mature market and an inkling of how all markets will eventually behave in maturity.

Read More →→→

Estimating 2035 iPhone Users

In the last quarter Apple reported 2.5 billion active devices. Of those, I estimate 1.6 billion are iPhones.

Using this as a base, I've created an iPhone installed base estimate looking forward to 2030, integrating Statcounter’s market share data, Ericsson’s global smartphone user forecasts, and BankMyCell’s smartphone install base.

The sources broadly align through 2025, though Statcounter’s historical iOS share (2017–2023) diverges somewhat, possibly reflecting Android’s heavier web traffic footprint due to usage patterns and bot activity rather.

Taken together, the data points to iPhone nearing 2 billion active devices by 2030, consistent with overall smartphone adoption. Android’s projected rise toward 4.5 billion users signals continuing headroom.

If switching dynamics and monetization trends persist, Apple’s ecosystem could expand to 2.5–3 billion users by 2035, with growth thereafter driven by switching and increased engagement depth and value extraction per user.

Read More →→→

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Nota Bene

Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4 → Apple is hosting intimate, global "Special Apple Experience" events on March 4, 2026, likely unveiling new products like the iPhone 17e and M5-powered MacBooks, marking a fresh twist on traditional live-streamed launches.

Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts → The "pod" in podcasts originated from Apple's iPod, with the company popularizing the medium by integrating podcasting into iTunes in 2005, and continuing to innovate with features like video podcast support and dynamic ad insertion.

Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color → Apple's upcoming lineup, featuring color-excited anticipation for the iPhone 17e and modest updates to iPads, promises subtle yet intriguing tech advancements.

Dan Ives Says Apple’s AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion → Apple's unparalleled distribution through its vast user base offers a significant competitive edge for rapidly monetizing AI innovations, potentially adding $1.5 trillion in value.

While big tech burns cash on AI, Apple waits → As foundation models commoditize, Apple strategically curates top AI tech into its ecosystem, prioritizing user experience over engine development.

Secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share → Apple faces memory cost inflation potentially raising iPhone prices, yet its strong ecosystem and execution provide resilience, whereas competitors like Samsung may struggle more due to lesser volume leverage.

iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche → Six skiers survived a deadly Lake Tahoe avalanche by using iPhone's Emergency SOS via satellite, highlighting its transition from luxury to essential. This feature enabled crucial communication with rescuers in remote areas lacking cellular service. The evolution mirrors mobile phones but faces slower adoption due to satellite bandwidth constraints.

The US Supreme Court has ruled against US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a raft of global tariffs → Apple and other affected companies may soon seek refunds for tariffs paid, following the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate Trump's tariffs, though the exact timeline and amount remain uncertain.

Bankers complain that Apple has a tight grip on mobile payments → Canadian banks struggled to compete in the mobile wallet market, dominated by tech giants like Apple and Google, due to their risk-averse nature clashing with tech's innovation-driven approach.

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Surveying multiple sources

We have a firm hold on the number of active devices as well as the number of iPhones in use. This is due to Apple reporting the data. The latest active device count was 2.5 billion and the estimate for active iPhones is 1.6 billion.

This patters also allows us to forecast the active base pretty accurately as the growth is predicted by the tight fitting linear approximation.

For more confidence it would be useful to confirm these predictions with different estimates. For this I turned to two additional sources: the Statcounter GlobalStats measure of Mobile Operating System Market Shares Worldwide coupled with Number of Smartphone Users Worldwide (forecast by Ericsson) and the Number of of iPhone Users from Bankmycell.

The total Smartphone Users history and forecast is shown below:

The Mobile Operating System Market Share Worldwide is shown below:

Multiplying these two yields the Mobile Operating System Users

The iOS users (orange line) can now be compared to Apple's own reported active device total (grey line) and the Bankmycell estimate as well as a derived estimate from Counterpoint (24% share of install base)

The graph includes forecasts from 2025 to 2029.

Discussion:

That, coupled with value captured per customer will determine the value of the firm.

The all-in-one on Apple

In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

• During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
• Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
• Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

The increases in multiples:

• 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
• 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
• 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
• Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
  36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

Let’s learn together. 

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Yours,

Horace Dediu

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