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A "Special Apple Experience"

Apple today announced a "special Apple Experience" in New York, London, and Shanghai, taking place on March 4, 2026 at 9:00am ET.

Apple Announces Special Event in New York Feature
Apple invited select members of the media to the event in three major cities around the world. It is simply described as a "special Apple Experience," and there is no further information about what it may entail. The invitation features a 3D Apple logo design composed of yellow, green, and blue discs.

It is notable that Apple is specifically using the word "experience," rather than "event." Unlike a full live-streamed event from Apple Park, the March 4 event in other cities is likely to be smaller in scale.

The announcement of several new Apple products is believed to be imminent, including the iPhone 17e, MacBook Pro with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, eighth-generation, iPad Air, 12th-generation iPad, and more. A refreshed Studio Display and an all-new low-cost MacBook with the A18 chip are also possibilities, along with a new Apple TV and HomePod mini.

This "Apple Experience" could involve Apple's announcement of some of these products and provide an opportunity for the media to get hands-on with the new devices around the world.

Source: MacRumors

NB: Providing live venues for a streamed event in New York, London, and Shanghai is a novel approach and clearly an evolution of the notion of event marketing that Apple pioneered. We look forward to seeing what is special and what a remote experience entails.

Apple at 50 at Computer History Museum:

On April 1, 1976, Apple Computer was founded with a radical idea: that powerful computing should be personal. Fifty years later, Apple stands as one of the most influential technology companies in history—shaping not only products, but culture, design, and how billions of people interact with technology every day.

Join the Computer History Museum for a special CHM Live evening celebrating Apple’s first half-century, featuring a conversation with leaders who helped guide the company through pivotal moments of reinvention, growth, and global impact. From the early garage days of the 1970s, to the heyday of the Macintosh in the 1980s, to Apple's transformation in the 2000s with the iPhone, the program will explore how Apple repeatedly redefined itself while holding fast to a distinctive vision.

NB: Use code EarlyBird to register.

The good news keeps rolling in.

Previously, on February 3, Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and $330 price target on Apple Inc., highlighting favorable App Store spending trends. The firm noted the company’s App Store spending acceleration of approximately 7% YoY in January 2026, relative to the 6% growth in December last year. While Entertainment grew 7% (from 3% to 10%), the Games division declined 3% YoY.

Goldman Sachs believes that App Store spending will continue to be a meaningful growth catalyst for the company’s Services revenue in the future

Source: Insider Monkey

NB: No meaningful (or perhaps even measurable) impact from off-Appstore payments alternatives. Turns out adding friction to a frictionless business is not an attractive option for the customer.

Release date was first set in WWDC 2025.

In a WWDC interview with Tom's Guide editor-in-chief Mark Spoonauer, and TechRadar editor-at-large Lance Ulanoff, Apple's software engineering chief Craig Federighi said the new version [of Siri] is scheduled for the coming year.

Apple's marketing chief Greg Joswiak confirmed that the "coming year" refers to 2026.

Yesterday Apple told CNBC it is on track to launch in 2026.

Source: MacRumors

NB: I'm told repetition is necessary in order for others to understand. Sometimes you're supposed to say the same thing twice. Sometimes even three times. But still, some fail to grasp the idea.

Seems like Apple got a bargain.

Apple has taken full ownership of its hit workplace drama series Severance, acquiring all intellectual property and rights from production studio Fifth Season in a deal valued at just under $70 million, according to a new report. That makes additional seasons of the fan-favorite show — and spinoff series — more likely.

Read the original article →

NB: I don't watch almost any TV but I did watch this series.

YouTube is the new TV. Now finally on Apple Vision Pro.

Starting today, an official YouTube app is available on the Apple Vision Pro, allowing you to watch videos on a theater-sized screen with immersive visionOS Environments.

Every video on YouTube is available in the new, standalone visionOS app, including standard videos, 180° videos, 360° videos, and YouTube Shorts. And on the newer Apple Vision Pro with the M5 chip, you can even watch YouTube videos in 8K.

Read the original article →

NB: Finally. Using a browser to watch YouTube on an immersive device was a big failure, we just don't know whose.

Market that was down 23% overall

Every major Chinese mobile maker, from Huawei Technologies to Xiaomi, saw major declines in a market that was down 23% overall, largely due to reduced subsidies and a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year, Bloomberg News reported, citing Counterpoint researchers.

The iPhone 17 lineup, however, helped Apple to 8% growth, raising its share of the market to roughly a fifth, sharing the lead with Huawei. Cupertino, California-based Apple has seen its flagship product stage a major comeback since the September introduction of new models.

“Apple stood out as the only major brand to achieve year-on-year growth, and its market share reached the highest January level in the past five years,” according to the researchers. “The iPhone 17 base version now qualifies for government subsidies, boosting its value-for-money appeal and driving a 9% month-on-month sales increase.” 

Source: Seeking Alpha via Apple News

NB: Still wondering if it's the new orange color that's the reason for the iPhone's success in China?

Apple is best placed to withstand memory inflation

Analyst Wamsi Mohan told clients in a note that the bank applied its existing elasticity framework to assess how Apple, Dell and HP can offset sharply higher component prices expected in 2026.

Mohan wrote that NAND prices are projected to rise “+140% in C26 and DRAM +14% in C26,” forcing PC OEMs to rely on a mix of “price increases, reconfigurations, and pressure on supply chain to offset headwinds.”

BofA divided each OEM’s units into demand-elasticity cohorts and found that Apple is best placed to withstand memory inflation because its “units skew the least elastic with ~85% in the Inelastic cohort.”

Based on BofA’s modelling, Apple faces a potential earnings impact of just $0.12, compared with $3.77 for Dell and $1.55 for HPQ.

Mohan said the bank does not expect the full theoretical impact to materialize because memory pricing in long-term contracts is likely to be lower than current projections.

“The implied downside to EPS is modest for AAPL,” he wrote, adding that BofA maintains its Buy rating on optionality from new products, new markets and “eventual success with AI at the edge.”

BofA believes Apple’s operating margins could still see over 600bps of year-over-year deleverage, though they remain positive due to the company’s stronger profitability. Dell and HP would need to cut operating expenses by 5–20% and reduce specifications to remain profitable.

The bank now expects 2026 PC units to fall 8% year over year, compared with a prior view of flat growth..

Source: Investing.com

NB: "I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." Nassim Taleb.

Apple's cost pressures are real, but the growth story is bigger

Apple’s latest Wall Street price targets

Wedbush:$350 (outperform).
Goldman Sachs:$330 (buy).
JPMorgan:$325 (overweight).
BofA Securities:$325 (buy).
Morgan Stanley:$315 (overweight).
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Investing.com

Despite memory cost inflation being a big deal, it still doesn't fundamentally impact Apple’s tremendous earnings power, Bernstein’s Mark Newman shared in a CNBC interview.

That’s not to say he doesn’t expect iPhone production costs to rise, though.

Heightened component costs could push iPhone prices up by as much as 15%, Newman added, while bumping the overall average selling price by nearly 12% as some customers trade down to cheaper models.

That increase is substantial, and it comes down to a staggering 237% surge in mobile DRAM contract prices since Q2 2025, along with a 70% jump in NAND.

Despite the pressures, Newman feels that Apple separates itself from the pack through its superb execution.

He says Apple is “managing better than competition,” led by unmatched scale advantages, supplier leverage, product mix, and durable pricing power.

To his point, Apple has evolved into a powerful platform company with a walled-garden ecosystem that locks users in.

That matters a ton when costs spike.

That’s why even with the memory pressures in play, Bernstein’s modeling points to iPhone gross margins dropping by nearly 1.5 percentage points by Q4 2027.

Though that’s meaningful, Newman believes the EPS impact will be substantially offset by higher-margin services revenue, mix shift, and aggressive cost management.

Apple’s AI ambitions outweigh rising costs

Newman’s bullish take on Apple centers around AI.

Instead of AI technology showing up just as a chatbot, Newman says Apple is deploying it as a system-level layer, making its ecosystem stickier.

What makes this possible is a hybrid design that handles as many requests on the device and reroutes the heavier ones (advanced reasoning) through Private Cloud Compute using Google’s Gemini.

That robust setup ensures Apple’s privacy positioning remains firmly intact, while delivering cutting-edge responses and features.

Unlike many of its peers, Apple isn’t in the race to win AI benchmarks or translate those gains into tangible financial gains. It just needs those features to change behavior and pave the way for healthier services revenue.

In fact, some of the earlier modeling supports that logic.

Morgan Stanley’s April 2025 survey, as reported by Investing.com, was an early “tell” that Apple’s AI pitch would likely move the needle.

At the time, 51% of iPhone owners said they were “extremely likely” to upgrade in the next 12 months. More importantly, those respondents, compared with those in the previous fall, showed a 12% higher willingness to pay $9.11 per month for Apple Intelligence.

For perspective, the significant Siri 2.0 (the next phase of Apple Intelligence) is reportedly set to launch in spring 2026, according to Mac Rumors.

Ironically, Apple stock was initially blasted for lagging in the AI realm. However, as we’ve gotten deeper into the cycle, Newman argues that investors have actually felt a lot “more comfortable” amid the AI wars.

Source: TheStreet

NB: A 237% surge in mobile DRAM contract prices since Q2 2025 is spot pricing. Apple does not buy on the current market but what is effectively on a futures market. It would behoove the reader to calculate the quantity of orders for e.g. SoC and Memory Apple places vs. hyperscalers. If "51% of iPhone owners said they were “extremely likely” to upgrade in the next 12 months" that's 850 million people worldwide.

GF Securities said a recent survey on the tech giant's supply chain suggests a “solid outlook.”

“Following the earnings call on Jan. 29, 2026, we did a supply chain research which indicates strong iPhone build momentum (incl. 2H26’s models) as well as cost management aiming to keep the starting selling prices of iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max unchanged or at [a] similar level of iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max,” analyst Jeff Pu wrote in a note to clients.

“Additionally, [the] Gemini partnership is to work on the Apple foundational model to power the Apple Intelligence, including the personalized Siri, which is the next key to watch in WWDC 2026.”

Pu reiterated his Buy rating and upped his price target [] on the back of higher 2026 and 2027 estimates.

Delving deeper, Pu said the upcoming fiscal third-quarter should see another “strong” iPhone build, with around 54M units, which would suggest a year-over-year acceleration. “For 2H26, we note that Apple is expected to launch 3 new iPhone 18 models (Pro, Pro Max, Fold), compared to 4 iPhone 17 models a year ago,” Pu added. “Yet, we expect a solid iPhone 18 build plan in 2H26 of 82m, compared to 89m of iPhone 17 in 2H25, despite [a] much higher [average] selling price. We attribute the key drivers to the new foldable model and Apple’s strategy of keeping iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max pricing largely the same as that of iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max by managing
memory/display cost. That said, we expect a significant iPhone ASP
increase in CY2H26 driven by mix.”

On the company's recent earnings call, Apple management, led by CEO Tim Cook, said revenue is expected to grow between 13% and 16% year-over-year.

Looking to the cost of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, Pu said the recent impact of surging memory prices should be manageable. “For DRAM, we believe Apple has been negotiating with Samsung Memory and SK Hynix to reach favorable deals, considering Apple’s support in the past memory downcycle and the likely capital investments,” the analyst explained. “For NAND, we estimate the cost to be up ~70% QoQ in F2Q and suppliers are asking for 50-60% QoQ in F3Q. Overall, we expect the BOM cost of memory to increase from 9- 10% in F1Q to 12-13% in F3Q. To partially offset the cost of memory price and 2nm A20 Pro, we expect efforts on other big items such as
display, cameras, etc.”

Source: MSN, SeekingAlpha.

NB: 54 million build is not for this quarter but the following (ending June.) Consider how it's possible to service a 1.7 billion install base, growing by 150 to 200 million per year, with a build rate of 200 million/yr. The methodology of supply checks seems to have some limits.

Compared to the aggregate P/E ratio of the 35.76 in the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals industry, Apple Inc. has a lower P/E ratio of 35.21.

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NB: That's within a day's trading range. And watch those significant digits.