Ben Thompson of the Stratechery interviews Horace on the Stratechery Plus Podcast to discuss Horace's journey to become an influential tech analyst: early career in research, business school under Clayton Christensen, and his time at Nokia during the rise of the iPhone.
The conversation further explores Disruption Theory in the context of both smartphones and AI, why Christensen misjudged Apple, and whether AI could challenge today’s tech giants. It also marks the launch of Dediu’s new paid service Asymco One and reflects his continued conviction in Apple Inc. at its 50-year milestone.
A new analysis of computers used in the enterprise finds that Macs and iPhones last much longer and have far fewer problems.
Macs in enterprise settings typically last for five years, besting the three-year lifespan for Windows PCs, according to a company that makes software to help businesses manage their computers.
But the really shocking revelation from the report is that more than half of Windows PCs used in big business get replaced within a year.
While factors like software compatibility, IT familiarity and customization options also play a role, upfront hardware cost remains the biggest driver for most organizations.
By comparison, Macs are often seen as premium products, which can make them harder to justify at scale (although the recently released $599 MacBook Neo is changing that equation).
Companies making these sorts of computer buying decisions should pay attention to a new report from Omnissa.
“Compared to Windows, 6.5x more Macs are seen in service into year 6, and 3.3x more Macs are seen in service into year 3+,” noted Omnissa’s report.
“Only 17% of macOS devices were replaced within one year, compared to 54% of Windows devices, reducing disruption tied to frequent hardware replacement,” said the analysis.
Macs are far less likely to crash. The benefits of using Apple computers don’t stop at longevity, though. Employees using Macs also run into far fewer bugs.
“The telemetry reveals that Windows devices exhibit 3.1x more total forced shutdowns (including system crashes and unexpected restarts) than macOS devices,” said Omnissa. “Windows devices experience 2.2x more app crashes and a staggering 7.5x more app hangs (unresponsive software states) than Macs.”
“A forced shutdown is much more than an IT support ticket — it’s a disruption to an employee’s work that translates directly into lost work hours,” said Omnissa.
Apple’s lifespan advantage extends to iPhones as well. When compared to Android handsets, “the data suggests that iOS devices display longer service life, with twice as many devices in service into year 6,” said Omnissa.
“iOS is updated 8.1 times faster than Android,” said Omnissa. “macOS is updated 1.5 times faster than Windows.”
The long-term cost benefits of using macOS or iOS in the enterprise are starting to overcome companies’ habit of making buying decisions based on short-term savings.
iPhone 70th anniversary edition will have a new camera
Apple CEO Tim Cook was also asked whether he could ever see the company being led by AI execs, and he said absolutely not, even in a 50-year time frame.
“When you look at the leadership page,” he says of future Apple, “there will not be an agentic kind of model on there.”
Joz said in a new interview that it’s hard to imagine that we won’t still be using an iPhone 50 years from now …
“Given Apple’s free cash flow and we are about to embark on one of its most lucrative product rollouts since the big screen iPhones in 2014 - there is a case for Apple’s stock regaining some ground,” Melius analysts wrote in a note to clients.
Lately, Apple has announced the iPhone 17e and a refreshed iPad Air, a new MacBook Air, a MacBook Pro, new Studio Displays, the MacBook Neo, and an updated version of its over-the-ear headphones, the AirPods Max 2.
Apple shares were modestly higher in premarket trading but have lost some 8% year-to-date. Over the past 12 months, shares have gained 12%.
NB: Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount by which a business's operating cash flow exceeds its working capital needs and expenditures on fixed assets (known as capital expenditures). It is that portion of cash flow that can be extracted from a company and distributed to creditors and securities holders without causing issues in its operations. As such, it is an indicator of a company's financial flexibility and is of interest to holders of the company's equity, debt, preferred stock and convertible securities, as well as potential lenders and investors. It has come recently into vogue when the bill for AI infrastructures has come due...
The table above shows the P/E ratios vs. the EV/FCF ratios of the top 10 largest market caps in the world.
Apple’s top-line is benefiting from an expanding enterprise footprint. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company saw strong adoption with Snowflake deploying more than 9,000 Mac devices while AstraZeneca rolled out more than 5,000 M5-powered iPad Pros to its pharmaceutical sales team. Mexico’s largest domestic retailer – Coppel – added MacBook Air to its growing fleet of more than 10,000 iPad devices.
In the trailing 12 months, Apple’s devices have been adopted by the likes of BMW Group (tens of thousands of iPhones), Capital One added MacBook Airs, while the Czech Republic’s largest bank, Ceska sporitelna, is using more than 5,000 iPhones in addition to its existing thousands of iPads and Macs. Other notable users include PayPal, Roche, and Thailand’s Siam Commercial Bank. Apart from iPhones, iPads and MacBooks, Apple Vision Pro is gaining adoption. Apple’s visionOS 26 introduced new enterprise APIs that empower companies to build their own spatial experiences. This is expected to further drive the adoption of Apple devices.
The company is now bringing Apple Business that combines built-in mobile device management, business email and calendar services with custom domain support. Apple Business can help enterprises grow their reach and connect with local customers across Apple Maps, Mail, Wallet, Siri, and more. Apple is set to introduce a new option coming this summer that will enable businesses in the United States and Canada to place local ads in Maps during key search and discovery moments. Beginning April 14, Apple Business will be available as a free service in the United States and more than 200+ countries and regions to new and existing users of Apple Business Connect, Apple Business Essentials and Apple Business Manager.
Attach rates for iCloud reached about 42%, while Apple Music stood near 30%
The iPhone ecosystem is showing signs of increased customer loyalty and steady demand, while its high-margin services business remains a key support to profitability, according to UBS analysts.
The bank, which maintains a 'Neutral' rating on Apple with a 12-month price target of $280, cited findings from its Evidence Lab survey of roughly 4,000 iPhone users globally. The data suggests that iPhone “stickiness” continues to improve, even as replacement cycles remain relatively stable.
UBS said the average age of iPhones in use globally was largely unchanged year-over-year at about 33 months. Outside China, device age edged slightly higher to around 38 months, a trend the analysts said could push some upgrade demand into 2027.
At the same time, customer retention strengthened, with the global iPhone retention rate rising about 200 basis points to roughly 74%. Gains were particularly notable in the United States and China, where retention increased by 200 and 700 basis points, respectively. UBS belives that this indicates Apple is maintaining share despite a competitive smartphone market.
Purchase intent also improved across regions, with more surveyed users indicating their next smartphone would be an iPhone. The UK recorded the largest increase, while China also saw a meaningful rise despite what UBS described as a challenging competitive backdrop.
The report highlighted continued growth in Apple’s services ecosystem, particularly iCloud and Apple Music. Attach rates for iCloud reached about 42%, while Apple Music stood near 30%, trends UBS said should help sustain services gross margins above 75% through fiscal 2026 and 2027.
Higher-tier iCloud usage is also increasing, even as Apple raises base storage on newer devices. Among iPhone 17 users, 77% reported subscribing to mid- to high-tier iCloud storage plans, compared with roughly 60% across the broader installed base. UBS noted that additional services uptake carries incremental gross margins of at least 90%, helping offset potential pressure from rising memory costs.
On the hardware side, consumers are also opting for higher storage configurations. UBS wrote that 56% of iPhone 17 users purchased models with more than the base storage, up about 800 basis points year-over-year. This shift could support product margins, with incremental storage estimated to generate gross margins of around 75% on roughly one-fifth of sales.
Looking at the installed base, UBS estimates about 68% of iPhones in use are from the 14 through 17 series, while around 40% are Pro or Pro Max models. The analysts said this premium segment could be a target market for a potential foldable iPhone, though they expect the opportunity to be relatively limited given the anticipated price range of $2,000 to $2,500.
UBS estimates a foldable launch could result in as many as 8 million units in fiscal 2026, contributing roughly 6 million incremental iPhone shipments, or about a 2% uplift to its forecast of 251 million units.
In Apple’s first 50 years it shipped 5.13 billion computers. This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 50 years. There actually are no other PC makers that are 50 years old. But all these things were true also 40 years ago. So what are we celebrating now that we did not celebrate at Apple 40? The answer is Services, the consistency in growth in user base and the potential trajectory of growth to never-before imagine audiences. The biggest change is a change of horizons. →
Says Neal Stephenson who first coined the term “metaverse” This revelation came soon after Meta canceled the Metaverse. Let’s look into Neal Stephenson’s mea culpa:
When I was working at Magic Leap, and people asked me why I thought that [Metaverse] was a good idea, I would ask the rhetorical question: “do you really think that twenty years from now everyone is still going to be going around all day staring at little rectangles in their hands?” →
How everyone is wrong about AI. The newspaper was an unexpected development It was not a product that anyone asked for. Like many innovations, it wasn’t an invention. It was not patented or discovered in a laboratory. It emerged as a result of the convergence of three disparate technologies: continuous roll printing presses, the telegraph, and the railroad. This convergence occurred by the 1830s, facilitated by a business model aptly named “the penny press”. Stepping back, the printing press was initially developed in the 1450s, 40 years before Columbus’ voyage. It went through numerous evolutions. The big change was moving →
Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →
“There’s So Much Left” in iPhone: Tim Cook → Apple's relentless focus on user-centric innovation, epitomized by the ever-ascendant iPhone, underscores its enduring dominance and untapped market potential. →
Amazon developing a new phone more than a decade after its first → Amazon's renewed attempt at a smartphone, "Transformer," aims to integrate AI and deepen Prime ecosystem ties, learning from past Fire failures by addressing trust, scale, and developer engagement challenges. →
Mac fastest growing PC brand in India in Q4 2025 → In 2025, India's PC market soared to a record 15.9 million units, with Mac sales impressively up 24% year over year, hinting at a bright future despite looming 2026 challenges. →
Apple TV is a categorization failure → Apple TV, launched in 2007, struggled for 19 years as a misunderstood, underappreciated gateway to content, overshadowed by Apple's product-centric reputation. →
Apple’s Custom Silicon Opens up Potential for a Cellular MacBook → "Apple's C1X modem not only matches Qualcomm's performance but also reshapes the economic landscape for always-connected MacBooks, hinting at a future where seamless cellular integration redefines portable computing." →
Survey shows record upgrade interest for iPhones → Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple as the sole major smartphone vendor to gain market share in 2026, driven by strong upgrade intent and advanced features, while Android struggles with rising costs and declining loyalty. →
MacBook Neo Market Impact: Analysts weigh in → Market analysts predict the MacBook Neo will disrupt the low-end PC market, especially in education, by leveraging Apple's higher margins and user-centric design, despite challenges from price-sensitive K-12 sectors dominated by Chromebooks. →
World’s most respected Apple Analyst. —Macfilos
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Apple the only major global smartphone vendor expected to gain share in 2026
A new global smartphone survey from Morgan Stanley points to record iPhone upgrade intent in 2026.
The AlphaWise survey shows next-12-month upgrade rates in the U.S. and China hitting “all-time highs,” which implies replacement cycles “accelerate to a 10-year low.”
Woodring writes that Apple is “the only major global smartphone vendor expected to gain share in 2026,” driven by “new and advanced features,” stronger device quality and broad upgrade eligibility.
He adds that iPhone switching rates are set to reach a 5-year high, underscoring the company’s relative strength.
By contrast, Android vendors face what Morgan Stanley calls “unprecedented memory cost inflation” that is likely to push device prices higher and “significantly dampen smartphone market demand.”
The bank says lower brand loyalty and greater price sensitivity will leave Android “more vulnerable vs Apple.”
As a result, Morgan Stanley cuts its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast to 1.1 billion units, down from 1.3 billion previously, or -13% year-on-year.
It now expects Android shipments to fall 15% year over year, compared with just a 2% decline for Apple.
Explore how Apple’s C1X modem performs in the real world, with Ookla Speedtest data from Q4 2025 showing the iPhone Air matching Qualcomm’s X80 download speeds while setting new latency benchmarks.
iPhone Air marginalizes competing slim form-factors. The iPhone Air has largely eclipsed the Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge globally, out-sampling it 3-to-1 in the U.S. based on Speedtest data, while the Edge remains statistically negligible in terms of adoption across European markets. South Korea remains the primary competitive exception, driven by strong home-market bias.
In 2024, the iPhone 16 Plus was the clear laggard of the range, capturing a mere 2.9% of the launch mix. By sunsetting the iPhone Plus and replacing it with the design-centric iPhone Air, Apple more than doubled the share of this roster slot to 6.8%. This suggests that “Slim” as a category successfully resonates with a segment of the market that “Large” simply did not.
Apple’s newest hardware cycle centered on a key question: could Apple’s first high-performance modem, the C1X, improve upon the original C1? Furthermore, could it match the industry-standard Qualcomm X80, without the thermal headroom of a “Pro” chassis. Despite its slim form-factor, the iPhone Air does include a vapor chamber to aid cooling, while its titanium frame also aids heat dispersion. Qualcomm remains a formidable incumbent with its X85 modem, which alongside MediaTek’s M90, will feature in newer Android flagship devices this year. Based on comparisons with the X80, our data suggests that Apple’s silicon has reached a critical maturity point, shifting the conversation from a performance gap to a strategic “equalizer” in real-world performance.
50 already? It seems only a blink of an eye since I wrote Apple at 40. Let's try copy & paste.
In Apple’s first 40 50 years it shipped 1,591,092,250 5,126,211,000 computers[1].
This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 40 50 years. Actually there are no other PC makers that are 40 50 years old. One computer maker (IBM) is older but they only sold PCs for 24 years and what they still sell they don’t sell in high numbers.
That does not make Apple the top seller in a given year. Looking at only the Mac, Apple’s traditional form factor personal computer, Apple is fifth fourth in market share. If including the iPad, it was the top computer vendor in 2011 and, including the iPhone, it was first in 2009.
The following graph shows the top computer makers by units sold since 1975, a year before Apple was founded. (Click on the graph to see a higher resolution.)
Note that the graph is log scale and in multiples of 1000. Following the yellow Apple line we can see how it started with fewer than 1000 units shipped in its first year to today when it is shipping more than 1 million computers every day[2]. It's also quite remarkable to count how many other companies have come and gone in this top five list and imagine how many came and went in the "other" category.
Who remembers Atari, Commodore, Packard Bell, Compaq? Few said that they were doomed while they were in the running. Going back to Apple at 40,
After having a 40 50 year run and after selling more computers than all American and Japanese computer companies put together, how should we think about the next 40 50 years?
First, clearly Apple shifted from being a “computer company”. It has already changed its name to exclude the word “Computer.” That [came to mean that] it sells devices (which happen to also include computers.) We don't use computers to compute anyway. We use them to make decisions, keep track of things, speed things up and to communicate and to entertain.
After convincing the world that it's a not just a computer company, the next challenge has been to convince the world that it's also not just a product company. It did so by launching Services as a group (formerly known as iTunes Software and Services) and then separating the financial reporting so that Services can be measured with its own gross margin. Year after year management emphasized Services growth in its commentary. Services has grown into the second largest segment, 26% of total revenues ($112.8 billion out of 435.6 billion in calendar 2025.)
Services, if it stood alone, would be number 40 in the Fortune 500 list of largest companies by sales. It has been impossible to ignore it. Considering how much customers actually spend on Apps, Content and Services, the total is even bigger at $240 billion last year[3]. As a result, some, perhaps most, recognize Apple as a Products & Services company.
The App store alone attracts $169 billion in spending per year (2025) and that is now 5x what theatrical movie sales bring in world-wide.[4]
So if Apple is today at least a bundle of Products and Services then what will Apple be 50 years from now?
Again from Apple 40:
My simple proposal is to think of Apple as a customer creator. It creates and maintains customers. The more it creates, the more it prospers. The more customers it preserves the more it’s likely to persevere. This measure of performance for a company is not easy to obtain. It’s not a line item in any financial report.
The closest figure we have is that today Apple has one 2.5 billion active devices in use. It has around 1.1 billion users [5]. Using the devices as a proxy, we can say that this audience has more than doubled in the last decade.
So we know that at least Apple has created a large number of customers. Knowing total devices sold and number in use means that we can be sure that 63% of all the computers Apple sold are still in use. This means that most customers are recent customers. Are they going to come back?
If we then factor in the size and persistence of Apple’s audience (customer base) we might conclude that there are factors which will allow it to grow rather than shrink. My analysis based on public data shows that the customer base has been increasing steadily.
And here is a graph showing the size of device base and implications for subscriptions. services and comparisons with other consumer aggregators. Note the forward looking nature of a linear extrapolation of the historical data.
10 years ago, I continued:
Combining the history of customer creation and customer preservation with the value obtained from each customer implies that the next 40 years will be about creating another large tranche of customers whose willingness to spend on whatever Apple creates will be relatively unchanged.
We don’t know the limit. One billion was hard to imagine even one year ago. We might see two billion devices in short order. Perhaps not. Perhaps as we have a multitude of devices about us all day the number will become less meaningful. But if the number of middle class customers grows and as Apple keeps its products within their reach, there is no reason to think that there will be a reversal of the last 40 years in terms of customer acquisition.
This analysis contradicts the current perception of the company as reflected by its stock price. That price assumes the audience will wither ((With a P/E ratio of 11, without a change in revenue per user, the only justification would be the audience shrinking by more than 90% over the next 20 years.)) That is not insanity. It is what we could expect if Apple were unexceptional.
We did see 2 billion. We actually saw 2.5 billion. The assumption of a company in distress as reflected by the P/E ratio of 11 is gone. It's safe to say that Apple is exceptional.
But note that we are only 10 years into that 40 year forecast from a decade ago. Do we still feel confident that the company can last 30 more years given what we've seen so far? If one company could get through the next 30 I would say it is Apple. And if it is so then I think it will get through the next 50.
One more Thing
So, the plan is to make more of the same. It's more than enough.
Including Apple II, Mac, iPhone, iPad and iPod touch; excluding Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV and other iPods. Includes Q1 shipments estimated
2025 shipments were above 364.9 million excluding Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch.
A Fortune 15 ranking. This would be the case if payments to developers were counted as sales but that is not the case for accounting reasons. As a result Services margins are an extraordinary 76%, on the order of a software only business like Microsoft Office.
As an aside, when I first started tracking this data it was early 2015. The App store had just overtaken US Box Office revenues and the outrage at my comparison and the skepticism that this sustainable was impressive. Much of the outrage was due to my choice of the headline "Bigger Than Hollywood". You can still read the 72 comments. App store billings are now nineteen times bigger than US Box office billings. I still stand by the idea that the App Store is Bigger than Hollywood. It is in fact bigger than many other forms of entertainment combined--more about this later
Stay tuned for a detailed exposition of this audience
Apple’s recent performance supports Cook’s view, as iPhone revenue reached $85.2 billion last quarter, marking a new all-time high for the company. Cook described the demand as “simply staggering,” with strong sales across every region.
The iPhone is also approaching a major milestone, as it turns 20 next year, yet its popularity continues to rise instead of slowing down. Apple sees this as a sign that the device still holds strong value in a rapidly changing tech landscape.
Cook also spoke about Apple’s broader vision, saying the company’s strength comes from its people and focus on simplicity. He said Apple’s future products will continue to reflect that approach.
On artificial intelligence, Cook stressed the importance of keeping users at the center of development. He said, “If you’re always trying to enrich the life of someone else, then you keep them at the center.”
