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  1. Tim Cook: Apple just had best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers

    Nota Bene

    And it's not even Christmas

    Apple's CEO Tim Cook today said the Mac just had its "best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers," which suggests that the new MacBook Neo has been a hit with customers buying their first laptops or switching from Windows.


    Apple released the MacBook Neo last Wednesday, March 11. In the ...

    Source: MacRumors

    NB: See my recent note on the history of the Mac. We need to wait to hear if the language of "half of customers new to the Mac" changes. The churn has just begun. It reminds one of the Mac v. PC ad campaign.

  2. The biggest surprise of the MacBook Neo

    Research · 2 comments

    Remembering the PC market

    Almost 10 years ago I said "Managing the Mac product line must be one of the most challenging problems at Apple. That may not be obvious given the product’s success." I pointed out that although the company grew the Mac into a redeemed and prosperous platform, "The big change in computing has not been a growing Mac vs. declining PC. It has been a huge surge in mobile device use vs. a decline in PC use overall."

    It's time to revisit this observation.

    First, a status update:

    • The Mac is in its 32 42nd year of market presence. A longevity that is (still) unmatched by any other PC maker.
    • Apple reached a top five four position in the ranking of PC vendors. This was achieved far along in the evolution of the market.
    • With about $23 $33 billion in revenues per year, Apple places among the top four three PC vendors in terms of revenue.
    • With an estimated $5.5 $13.8 billion in operating margin Apple is the most profitable PC vendor, capturing over 60% of the available PC hardware profits.
    • The product has retained an average selling price of over $1200 ($1400 last year) for at least a decade. At the same time the average pricing of Personal Computers has more than halved.
    • Volumes increased by about 20% over a decade.

    The overall picture of the market is shown the following graphs. First, the overall quarterly shipments.

    Note the Covid-era surge during 2020 and 2021 but overall decline from peak in 2012. Yearly shipments were 262 million in 2025 vs. 371 million in 2012. The install base of users is largely unchanged. Microsoft has cited "over 1 billion" to 1.4 billion monthly active devices, with figures varying between official statements. My estimate has been 1.2 billion PC users with an additional 250 million Mac users, more about this later.

    The shipments data provided by Gartner over the last 17 years is shown below:

    Notable are the declines in "other" vendors and the gains from Lenovo and Apple. Broadly speaking, "other" are assumed to be mostly consumer markets and that has either declined or been captured by Mac with consolidation around Lenovo. Lenovo, HP, Dell are likely to maintain enterprise accounts serving large customers and that has been a steady but low margin business for decades.

    Mac has grown to fourth place but still a way to go to third place Dell. Apple may overtake "other" combined in a year or two.

    Quarterly PC Market Shares by Vendor

    The market share data shows how "other" has been squeezed between Lenovo and Apple while the other players have largely held steady. Acer and Asus somehow managed to survive.

    So what does this mean for the future? What is Apple's strategy with the MacBook Neo. Or for that matter, for Studio and iMac and Mac Mini and MacBook Air and MacBook Pro?

    The Neo was such a surprise for many given its incredible price/performance ratio and the overall quality and affordability (and distribution potential). I've read many reviews suggesting it will "disrupt" the market and that Windows PCs are just no longer competitive.

    Will the MacBook Neo move the needle? Will it take share from the Windows world (or for that matter from the Chromebook and even iPad?)

    One more thing: Apple's sales of about 24 million Macs for a base of 260 million users implies a life span for Macs of nearly 11 years. However, all the other PCs sold add up to 238 million for a user base of 1.2 billion. That means the life span for the non-Mac PC is only 5 years.

    This is, of course, reflected in the price difference but with the MacBook Neo, the potential for a 10 year old life for a $500 laptop puts the Neo price at $50/yr or 14c/day. Based on data for 2025, the average selling price of a new Windows PC is estimated to be $600 to $900 for consumer models. At $700 for a life span of 5 years makes the PC cost $140/yr or 38c/day.

    This means that the average PC is more than twice the cost of the MacBook Neo. Now that is a surprise.

  3. Asymco Bulletin 004 - Mar 15, 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 15, 2026.

    Research

    The most brilliant move in corporate history?

    In a bold departure from its Big Tech peers, Apple sidestepped the $650 billion AI infrastructure spending frenzy. While Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta funneled cash into data centers, bleeding cash flow and adding debt, Apple maintained a consistent $14 billion capital budget. This strategic choice reflects Apple’s belief that AI models are rapidly commoditizing, as evidenced by DeepSeek’s $6 million model rivaling $100 million counterparts. Instead of building proprietary models, Apple licensed Google’s Gemini, reserving the option to switch vendors as superior models emerge.

    Apple’s genius lies in leveraging its ecosystem—2 billion devices transforming into a distributed AI powerhouse. Apple silicon on device enables local AI processing, bypassing the need for colossal server farms. This approach not only conserves capital but also amplifies customer loyalty, as Apple uniquely protects privacy. Ultimately, Apple bets on owning the customer experience, positioning itself to thrive regardless of infrastructure ownership. →

    Is Apple Pivoting?

    Apple's recent product launches, including the 17e and MacBook Neo, have sparked speculation about a strategic shift towards low-end markets. However, this view overlooks Apple's fundamental approach to market segmentation, which eschews simplistic price categorizations. Instead, Apple focuses on the "job-to-be-done," understanding that consumer purchases are driven by desired outcomes rather than affordability alone. This perspective reveals that performance and quality are crucial, transcending income levels. For instance, affluent individuals may opt for simpler devices, while budget-conscious consumers might invest in high-performance tools to meet specific needs, like content creation.

    Historically, Apple has aimed to deliver superior experiences to a broad audience, refusing to compromise on quality with budget-friendly products like Chromebooks. While cost can limit access, as seen with the Vision Pro, Apple prioritizes profitability as a validation of its value proposition. The MacBook Neo exemplifies this ethos, leveraging efficient mobile chipsets to redefine laptop capabilities at a competitive price point. This innovation blurs the lines between mobile and traditional computing, underscoring Apple's commitment to crafting products tailored to diverse tasks. Ultimately, Apple's strategic depth, powered by Silicon advancements, positions it to serve an expansive global market by addressing a wide array of functional needs. →


    Nota Bene

    Rosenblatt Lifts Price Target on Apple by $1, Maintains Netural Rating → On March 5, Rosenblatt's Barton Crockett slightly raised Apple's price target to $268 while maintaining a Neutral stance, optimistic about Apple's budget product launches and steady high-end performance, despite trading at a modest premium compared to peers, as analysts foresee robust revenue growth for FY2026. →

    How many employees does Apple have? What do they do? → Apple, despite its marketing reputation, is fundamentally an engineering powerhouse with nearly half its workforce dedicated to engineering roles, driving its substantial revenue growth and global employment expansion. →

    First footage of X-Plane 12 on Vision Pro → X-Plane 12 on Apple Vision Pro leverages ARKit to seamlessly integrate physical controls into a mixed reality flight simulation streamed from a Mac, showcasing advanced professional-grade AR capabilities. →

    iPhone production in India increases by 53% in 2025 → Apple's strategic shift to ramp up iPhone production in India by 53% last year, aiming not just to sidestep tariffs but to cultivate a vast new customer base, underscores a long-term vision mirroring its successful penetration of the Chinese market. →

    Qualcomm faces loss of Apple business, rated ‘Underperform’ by Bank of America → Qualcomm's dominant era in smartphone chips wanes as Apple and others pivot to internal solutions amid costly licensing disputes. →

    MacBook Neo May Boost Revenue By 0.5% While Expanding Into Student Market – Gene Munster → The MacBook Neo, targeting both education and broader markets, could modestly boost Apple's revenue by $2 billion annually without impacting margins, potentially revitalizing the Mac segment akin to Covid-era growth. →

    Apple’s AI Hardware Blitz Could Send The Stock 33% Higher, Says Wedbush’s Dan Ives → Apple's hardware blitz prioritizes product refreshment over AI emphasis, potentially setting the stage for future growth, though its $350 stock target faces external market challenges. →

    China’s Android shipments plunge as inventory builds in contrast to iPhones: Jefferies → "China's Android market faces a perfect storm of rising inventories, soaring memory costs, and renewed iPhone strength, hinting at a potential tipping point." →


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  4. MacBook Neo May Boost Revenue By 0.5% While Expanding Into Student Market - Gene Munster

    Nota Bene · 2 comments

    Needle mover?

    In a video segment titled Pressure Points, Munster said the device could modestly increase Apple's overall revenue while expanding its reach in the education market.

    "The new $AAPL MacBook Neo should add 0.5% to overall revenue for the next year. I believe it won't impact margins."

    Munster estimated the device could add roughly $2 billion in annual revenue to Apple's Mac segment.

    Apple's Mac business generated about $34 billion in fiscal 2025, meaning the Neo could provide roughly a 6% boost to that segment if adoption plays out as expected.

    The analyst said Apple is targeting a large pool of potential buyers in the U.S. education market, where many students currently rely on Chromebooks.

    "This market, if we just take the U.S. alone, is about 25 million students," Munster said in the video, adding that investors may think of this as "new customers for Apple."

    "My take is that they're probably doing this at a similar margin profile as their existing products," he said.

    Munster added that Apple's gross margins could remain near 48% across the coming quarters, suggesting the lower-cost Mac should not pressure profitability even as it expands Apple's customer base.

    Source: Yahoo Finance via Analyst: Gene Munster

    NB: Customer base is everything…

  5. Apple's AI Hardware Blitz Could Send The Stock 33% Higher, Says Wedbush's Dan Ives

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Missed the AI angle

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the launch lineup could help drive the next upgrade cycle for Apple, with the firm maintaining a $350 price target, implying roughly 33% upside from current levels.

    According to Ives, the chips deliver over four times the peak GPU compute for AI compared with M4, alongside roughly 35% stronger graphics performance.

    Apple paired the silicon with a refreshed Mac lineup, including new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro models, alongside a surprise entry: the MacBook Neo.

    Ives believes the lineup could broaden the Mac base further, noting nearly half of Mac buyers remain new to the platform, leaving room for incremental growth.

    Apple also introduced the iPhone 17e, powered by the A19 chip, designed to run generative AI models more efficiently.

    For Ives, the takeaway is simple: Apple's expanding lineup of AI-enabled devices could set the stage for the next major hardware cycle — and potentially push the stock toward its $350 target.

    Source: Sahm via Analyst: Dan Ives

    NB: AI Silicon at the core…

  6. Say hello to MacBook Neo

    Nota Bene · 2 comments

    hello

    Apple today unveiled MacBook Neo, an all-new laptop that delivers the magic of the Mac at a breakthrough price. Apple’s all-new MacBook features a durable aluminum design, a stunning 13-inch Liquid Retina display, the power of Apple silicon, and all-day battery life — all for the breakthrough starting price of just $599.

    "While many Chromebooks start lower than the Neo's $599 starting price point, there have been reports that disappearing margins could drive the cheap Windows laptop market into extinction by 2028." -Tom's Hardware

    Source: Apple Newsroom

    NB: The choice of a neo generation. MacBook Neo is a watershed event. First Mac with a…

    Join us at Asymco Office Hours, for a Live Q&A about Apple with Horace Dediu & Ben Bajarin.

    Today, Wed March 4, 3pm ET / 12p PT.

  7. Asymco Bulletin 002 / March 1, 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending March 1, 2026.

    Office Hours

    Our first Office Hours interactive seminar and Ask Me Anything questions/answer session will be on March 4th, after, presumably all the new announcements Apple will be making during the week. I will be broadcasting to you en vivo y en directo from Paris.

    Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A

    Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A → Join us for an exclusive Asymco One live Q&A on March 4 at 3pm ET to dissect Apple's latest business moves. →

    Research

    How many Apple users are in China?

    Greater China (GC) is a specific reporting segment for Apple, encompassing Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, with a combined population nearing 1.5 billion. This region is not just a significant contributor to Apple's revenue—accounting for 18% of net sales in Q4 2025—but also a dynamic landscape of technological adoption and consumer behavior. The smartphone user base in GC has surged from 690 million in 2016 to nearly a billion in 2025, with projections reaching 1.08 billion by 2029.

    The iOS ecosystem within GC exhibits varied dynamics across its constituent regions. While Macao maintains a steady iOS share of around 60%, Mainland China and Taiwan show different trajectories. Analyzing these trends through mobile OS share data reveals iOS's ascent, suggesting robust potential for further penetration and user engagement. As Apple navigates this complex market, understanding GC's historical growth patterns and future prospects is crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities and sustaining its competitive edge. →


    Nota Bene

    Apple #1 phone vendor in Europe → Apple leads Q4 2025 with a 7% YoY shipment rise driven by iPhone 17, while Samsung follows with 4% growth; Xiaomi faces a 6% decline amid shifting regional dynamics. →

    Are Solid State Batteries Finally Here? → Donut Lab has partnered with VTT for independent battery tests, with full reports and videos to follow. →

    iPhone becomes India’s top single export item → In 2025, Apple's iPhone exports from India, driven by Tata and Foxconn plants and a robust supply chain, reached $23 billion, making smartphones the top export category. →

    Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating → Apple's Services, beyond just the App Store, are poised for robust growth, driven by global market expansion and strong hardware demand. →

    Here’s why demand for Macs has spiked → Mac lead times have surged to multi-year highs due to increased demand, notably impacting models like Mac Studio, MacBook Pro M4, and Mac Mini. →

    A resource for AVP news → "AVP VIP offers a weekly, ad-free digest of tech news and insights, accessible to Asymco One members." →

    Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year → Apple revamps the Mac mini with M4 chips and boosts U.S. chip sourcing, starting at $599 without display, amid rising demand. →

    Apple Pay Aiming Launch in India This Year → Apple Pay aims to launch in India by late 2026, pending regulatory approvals and fee negotiations with card issuers. →

    iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information → Apple's iPhone and iPad achieve unprecedented NATO compliance, marking a pivotal shift in secure mobile technology acceptance. →

    Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger → In an interview, Apple's Eddy Cue highlighted Brazil as the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Apple TV subscribers, while noting potential impacts from proposed streaming regulations and a possible Netflix-Warner deal. Specific user and device numbers were not disclosed. →

    DRAM Shortage Will Cause ‘Seismic Shift’ in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected → A looming DRAM shortage due to AI demand will slash smartphone sales by 13% in 2026, forcing a market shift towards pricier devices, with relief not expected until mid-2027. →


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  8. Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year

    Nota Bene · 3 comments

    Just in time for Personal AI

    The Mac mini remains a smaller part of Apple’s Mac lineup, accounting for about 5 percent of global Mac sales last year, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. In 2024, Apple gave the desktop its first major redesign since 2010 and introduced M4 and M4 Pro chips. In the U.S., the Mac mini starts at $599, though buyers must provide their own display and accessories.

    At the same time, Apple is increasing domestic chip sourcing. The company plans to purchase more than 100 million chips this year from TSMC’s Arizona facility, reinforcing its long-term strategy to expand U.S. manufacturing while managing tariff pressures on imported products.

    Source: The Mac Observer

    NB: As demand for Mac mini spikes, assembly ...

  9. Here's why demand for Macs has spiked

    Nota Bene · 3 comments

    Personal AI

    "OpenClaw [is] driving Mac lead times to multi-year highs." — Analyst Erik Woodring

    As of Thursday, February 19th, lead times across most Mac products have quickly inflected to multi-year highs, around 2-4 weeks in the US (Exhibit 58), with lead times for Mac Studio the longest (27 days) followed by MacBook Pro M4 (23 days) and Mac Mini (19 days).

    Source: Morgan Stanley via Apple 3.0

    NB: It's not just the Mac Mini that is seeing a spike in sales...

  10. Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating

    Nota Bene

    Services is much more than App Store

    Apple’s App Store revenue growth is strengthening in February, with Morgan Stanley saying the latest data points to a faster pace of expansion heading into the March quarter.

    The firm’s analyst, Erik Woodring, said in a note Monday that App Store net revenue is growing 9 percent year-over-year month-to-date, which represents “a 230bps acceleration from January off a 700bps easier Y/Y compare.”

    Woodring added that quarter-to-date revenue is now rising 7.5 percent, putting it “50bps behind our +8.0% Y/Y March quarter App Store forecast.”

    The bank kept its March-quarter App Store growth and Services growth forecasts unchanged at 8 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively.

    Morgan Stanley said the acceleration is broad-based across major markets. China’s App Store is growing 4 percent year-over-year after a decline in January, while the U.S. is rising 3 percent, a 40-basis-point improvement. Japan is down 1 percent, while the rest of the world is seeing 22 percent growth.

    The analysts also cited rising Mac lead times, noting they have “quickly inflected to multi-year highs” due to demand for the on-device AI tool OpenClaw.

    They said stronger Taiwan component supplier revenue in January is another positive indicator, pointing to “very robust strength in server demand coming from the largest global cloud service providers.”

    Source: Yahoo Finance

    NB:     With new products due in a few days...

  11. Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing

    Invitation

    The all-in-one on Apple

    In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

    This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

    • During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
    • Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
    • Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

    The increases in multiples:

    • 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
    • 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
    • 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
    • Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
      36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

    The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

    That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

    When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

    So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

    And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

    Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

    Let’s learn together. 

    To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One. 

    Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:

    1. Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene. 
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    It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone. 

    For early adopters we are offering a discount of $150 with the code INNOVATE.

    I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person. 

    Yours,

    Horace Dediu

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