Ben Thompson of the Stratechery interviews Horace on the Stratechery Plus Podcast to discuss Horace's journey to become an influential tech analyst: early career in research, business school under Clayton Christensen, and his time at Nokia during the rise of the iPhone.
The conversation further explores Disruption Theory in the context of both smartphones and AI, why Christensen misjudged Apple, and whether AI could challenge today’s tech giants. It also marks the launch of Dediu’s new paid service Asymco One and reflects his continued conviction in Apple Inc. at its 50-year milestone.
A new analysis of computers used in the enterprise finds that Macs and iPhones last much longer and have far fewer problems.
Macs in enterprise settings typically last for five years, besting the three-year lifespan for Windows PCs, according to a company that makes software to help businesses manage their computers.
But the really shocking revelation from the report is that more than half of Windows PCs used in big business get replaced within a year.
While factors like software compatibility, IT familiarity and customization options also play a role, upfront hardware cost remains the biggest driver for most organizations.
By comparison, Macs are often seen as premium products, which can make them harder to justify at scale (although the recently released $599 MacBook Neo is changing that equation).
Companies making these sorts of computer buying decisions should pay attention to a new report from Omnissa.
“Compared to Windows, 6.5x more Macs are seen in service into year 6, and 3.3x more Macs are seen in service into year 3+,” noted Omnissa’s report.
“Only 17% of macOS devices were replaced within one year, compared to 54% of Windows devices, reducing disruption tied to frequent hardware replacement,” said the analysis.
Macs are far less likely to crash. The benefits of using Apple computers don’t stop at longevity, though. Employees using Macs also run into far fewer bugs.
“The telemetry reveals that Windows devices exhibit 3.1x more total forced shutdowns (including system crashes and unexpected restarts) than macOS devices,” said Omnissa. “Windows devices experience 2.2x more app crashes and a staggering 7.5x more app hangs (unresponsive software states) than Macs.”
“A forced shutdown is much more than an IT support ticket — it’s a disruption to an employee’s work that translates directly into lost work hours,” said Omnissa.
Apple’s lifespan advantage extends to iPhones as well. When compared to Android handsets, “the data suggests that iOS devices display longer service life, with twice as many devices in service into year 6,” said Omnissa.
“iOS is updated 8.1 times faster than Android,” said Omnissa. “macOS is updated 1.5 times faster than Windows.”
The long-term cost benefits of using macOS or iOS in the enterprise are starting to overcome companies’ habit of making buying decisions based on short-term savings.
iPhone 70th anniversary edition will have a new camera
Apple CEO Tim Cook was also asked whether he could ever see the company being led by AI execs, and he said absolutely not, even in a 50-year time frame.
“When you look at the leadership page,” he says of future Apple, “there will not be an agentic kind of model on there.”
Joz said in a new interview that it’s hard to imagine that we won’t still be using an iPhone 50 years from now …
Apple’s top-line is benefiting from an expanding enterprise footprint. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company saw strong adoption with Snowflake deploying more than 9,000 Mac devices while AstraZeneca rolled out more than 5,000 M5-powered iPad Pros to its pharmaceutical sales team. Mexico’s largest domestic retailer – Coppel – added MacBook Air to its growing fleet of more than 10,000 iPad devices.
In the trailing 12 months, Apple’s devices have been adopted by the likes of BMW Group (tens of thousands of iPhones), Capital One added MacBook Airs, while the Czech Republic’s largest bank, Ceska sporitelna, is using more than 5,000 iPhones in addition to its existing thousands of iPads and Macs. Other notable users include PayPal, Roche, and Thailand’s Siam Commercial Bank. Apart from iPhones, iPads and MacBooks, Apple Vision Pro is gaining adoption. Apple’s visionOS 26 introduced new enterprise APIs that empower companies to build their own spatial experiences. This is expected to further drive the adoption of Apple devices.
The company is now bringing Apple Business that combines built-in mobile device management, business email and calendar services with custom domain support. Apple Business can help enterprises grow their reach and connect with local customers across Apple Maps, Mail, Wallet, Siri, and more. Apple is set to introduce a new option coming this summer that will enable businesses in the United States and Canada to place local ads in Maps during key search and discovery moments. Beginning April 14, Apple Business will be available as a free service in the United States and more than 200+ countries and regions to new and existing users of Apple Business Connect, Apple Business Essentials and Apple Business Manager.
In Apple’s first 50 years it shipped 5.13 billion computers. This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 50 years. There actually are no other PC makers that are 50 years old. But all these things were true also 40 years ago. So what are we celebrating now that we did not celebrate at Apple 40? The answer is Services, the consistency in growth in user base and the potential trajectory of growth to never-before imagine audiences. The biggest change is a change of horizons. →
Says Neal Stephenson who first coined the term “metaverse” This revelation came soon after Meta canceled the Metaverse. Let’s look into Neal Stephenson’s mea culpa:
When I was working at Magic Leap, and people asked me why I thought that [Metaverse] was a good idea, I would ask the rhetorical question: “do you really think that twenty years from now everyone is still going to be going around all day staring at little rectangles in their hands?” →
How everyone is wrong about AI. The newspaper was an unexpected development It was not a product that anyone asked for. Like many innovations, it wasn’t an invention. It was not patented or discovered in a laboratory. It emerged as a result of the convergence of three disparate technologies: continuous roll printing presses, the telegraph, and the railroad. This convergence occurred by the 1830s, facilitated by a business model aptly named “the penny press”. Stepping back, the printing press was initially developed in the 1450s, 40 years before Columbus’ voyage. It went through numerous evolutions. The big change was moving →
Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →
“There’s So Much Left” in iPhone: Tim Cook → Apple's relentless focus on user-centric innovation, epitomized by the ever-ascendant iPhone, underscores its enduring dominance and untapped market potential. →
Amazon developing a new phone more than a decade after its first → Amazon's renewed attempt at a smartphone, "Transformer," aims to integrate AI and deepen Prime ecosystem ties, learning from past Fire failures by addressing trust, scale, and developer engagement challenges. →
Mac fastest growing PC brand in India in Q4 2025 → In 2025, India's PC market soared to a record 15.9 million units, with Mac sales impressively up 24% year over year, hinting at a bright future despite looming 2026 challenges. →
Apple TV is a categorization failure → Apple TV, launched in 2007, struggled for 19 years as a misunderstood, underappreciated gateway to content, overshadowed by Apple's product-centric reputation. →
Apple’s Custom Silicon Opens up Potential for a Cellular MacBook → "Apple's C1X modem not only matches Qualcomm's performance but also reshapes the economic landscape for always-connected MacBooks, hinting at a future where seamless cellular integration redefines portable computing." →
Survey shows record upgrade interest for iPhones → Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple as the sole major smartphone vendor to gain market share in 2026, driven by strong upgrade intent and advanced features, while Android struggles with rising costs and declining loyalty. →
MacBook Neo Market Impact: Analysts weigh in → Market analysts predict the MacBook Neo will disrupt the low-end PC market, especially in education, by leveraging Apple's higher margins and user-centric design, despite challenges from price-sensitive K-12 sectors dominated by Chromebooks. →
World’s most respected Apple Analyst. —Macfilos
Like what you read? Get more from Asymco One: full access to Asymco's research, analysis, and commentary.
50 already? It seems only a blink of an eye since I wrote Apple at 40. Let's try copy & paste.
In Apple’s first 40 50 years it shipped 1,591,092,250 5,126,211,000 computers[1].
This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 40 50 years. Actually there are no other PC makers that are 40 50 years old. One computer maker (IBM) is older but they only sold PCs for 24 years and what they still sell they don’t sell in high numbers.
That does not make Apple the top seller in a given year. Looking at only the Mac, Apple’s traditional form factor personal computer, Apple is fifth fourth in market share. If including the iPad, it was the top computer vendor in 2011 and, including the iPhone, it was first in 2009.
The following graph shows the top computer makers by units sold since 1975, a year before Apple was founded. (Click on the graph to see a higher resolution.)
Note that the graph is log scale and in multiples of 1000. Following the yellow Apple line we can see how it started with fewer than 1000 units shipped in its first year to today when it is shipping more than 1 million computers every day[2]. It's also quite remarkable to count how many other companies have come and gone in this top five list and imagine how many came and went in the "other" category.
Who remembers Atari, Commodore, Packard Bell, Compaq? Few said that they were doomed while they were in the running. Going back to Apple at 40,
After having a 40 50 year run and after selling more computers than all American and Japanese computer companies put together, how should we think about the next 40 50 years?
First, clearly Apple shifted from being a “computer company”. It has already changed its name to exclude the word “Computer.” That [came to mean that] it sells devices (which happen to also include computers.) We don't use computers to compute anyway. We use them to make decisions, keep track of things, speed things up and to communicate and to entertain.
After convincing the world that it's a not just a computer company, the next challenge has been to convince the world that it's also not just a product company. It did so by launching Services as a group (formerly known as iTunes Software and Services) and then separating the financial reporting so that Services can be measured with its own gross margin. Year after year management emphasized Services growth in its commentary. Services has grown into the second largest segment, 26% of total revenues ($112.8 billion out of 435.6 billion in calendar 2025.)
Services, if it stood alone, would be number 40 in the Fortune 500 list of largest companies by sales. It has been impossible to ignore it. Considering how much customers actually spend on Apps, Content and Services, the total is even bigger at $240 billion last year[3]. As a result, some, perhaps most, recognize Apple as a Products & Services company.
The App store alone attracts $169 billion in spending per year (2025) and that is now 5x what theatrical movie sales bring in world-wide.[4]
So if Apple is today at least a bundle of Products and Services then what will Apple be 50 years from now?
Again from Apple 40:
My simple proposal is to think of Apple as a customer creator. It creates and maintains customers. The more it creates, the more it prospers. The more customers it preserves the more it’s likely to persevere. This measure of performance for a company is not easy to obtain. It’s not a line item in any financial report.
The closest figure we have is that today Apple has one 2.5 billion active devices in use. It has around 1.1 billion users [5]. Using the devices as a proxy, we can say that this audience has more than doubled in the last decade.
So we know that at least Apple has created a large number of customers. Knowing total devices sold and number in use means that we can be sure that 63% of all the computers Apple sold are still in use. This means that most customers are recent customers. Are they going to come back?
If we then factor in the size and persistence of Apple’s audience (customer base) we might conclude that there are factors which will allow it to grow rather than shrink. My analysis based on public data shows that the customer base has been increasing steadily.
And here is a graph showing the size of device base and implications for subscriptions. services and comparisons with other consumer aggregators. Note the forward looking nature of a linear extrapolation of the historical data.
10 years ago, I continued:
Combining the history of customer creation and customer preservation with the value obtained from each customer implies that the next 40 years will be about creating another large tranche of customers whose willingness to spend on whatever Apple creates will be relatively unchanged.
We don’t know the limit. One billion was hard to imagine even one year ago. We might see two billion devices in short order. Perhaps not. Perhaps as we have a multitude of devices about us all day the number will become less meaningful. But if the number of middle class customers grows and as Apple keeps its products within their reach, there is no reason to think that there will be a reversal of the last 40 years in terms of customer acquisition.
This analysis contradicts the current perception of the company as reflected by its stock price. That price assumes the audience will wither ((With a P/E ratio of 11, without a change in revenue per user, the only justification would be the audience shrinking by more than 90% over the next 20 years.)) That is not insanity. It is what we could expect if Apple were unexceptional.
We did see 2 billion. We actually saw 2.5 billion. The assumption of a company in distress as reflected by the P/E ratio of 11 is gone. It's safe to say that Apple is exceptional.
But note that we are only 10 years into that 40 year forecast from a decade ago. Do we still feel confident that the company can last 30 more years given what we've seen so far? If one company could get through the next 30 I would say it is Apple. And if it is so then I think it will get through the next 50.
One more Thing
So, the plan is to make more of the same. It's more than enough.
Including Apple II, Mac, iPhone, iPad and iPod touch; excluding Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV and other iPods. Includes Q1 shipments estimated
2025 shipments were above 364.9 million excluding Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch.
A Fortune 15 ranking. This would be the case if payments to developers were counted as sales but that is not the case for accounting reasons. As a result Services margins are an extraordinary 76%, on the order of a software only business like Microsoft Office.
As an aside, when I first started tracking this data it was early 2015. The App store had just overtaken US Box Office revenues and the outrage at my comparison and the skepticism that this sustainable was impressive. Much of the outrage was due to my choice of the headline "Bigger Than Hollywood". You can still read the 72 comments. App store billings are now nineteen times bigger than US Box office billings. I still stand by the idea that the App Store is Bigger than Hollywood. It is in fact bigger than many other forms of entertainment combined--more about this later
Stay tuned for a detailed exposition of this audience
Apple TV completes 19 years since its launch, as reports suggest a new model may arrive soon. Apple introduced the original Apple TV in January 2007, and released it in March the same year. The device marked Apple’s early step into home entertainment.
NB: The product was always misunderstood. Judged as a product, Apple TV was always without traction. Never seen as a hit, often ignored. The problem has always been with the assumption that Apple was a "product company" or a "design/marketing company" or the "Mac | iPod | iPhone company". The hint is in the observation of the name Apple TV being both a product and a service. From a hardware point of view, the Apple TV is almost a Mac Mini, but with an A-series chipset and a funny input device. It was also priced so low that it probably had minimal margins. But that was never the point. Apple TV hardware ended up being the "brains" of the TV itself and the "set-top box" and the gateway to all content on the screen. Quite an achievement for a flop.
A quick search on Apple’s website shows that Neos are sold out and won’t be available for in store pickup until the middle of April. Air and Pro models are available for in store pickup today.
investors might be concerned about margin pressures as the product that’s doing so well is so cheap
‘I view the recent launches of Mac products as a major success for Apple near-term and medium-term,’ Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang said. “Neo may have slightly lower-than-average margin comparing to other Mac products, but I don’t think margin headwind is large enough to be notable on Apple’s consolidated income statement.”
In December, the company lost AI chief John Giannandrea, its top lawyer and a key design executive in a single week. Other recent headlines: “Apple faces unprecedented executive exodus”, “Apple rocked by executive departures, with chip chief at risk of leaving next.” “Apple home devices executive leaves for Finland’s Oura” “Lisa Jackson is set to retire late January 2026, while Kate Adams will retire in late 2026”. That’s just the names we hear about. They represent senior executives. But the harsh truth is that Apple lost tens of thousands of talented developers, marketers and mangers last year.
Almost 10 years ago I said “Managing the Mac product line must be one of the most challenging problems at Apple. That may not be obvious given the product’s success.” I pointed out that although the company grew the Mac into a redeemed and prosperous platform, “The big change in computing has not been a growing Mac vs. declining PC. It has been a huge surge in mobile device use vs. a decline in PC use overall.” It’s time to revisit this observation. First, a status update: The Mac is in its 42nd year...
How to read the history of the Mac and how to look at market share gains potential. Also: why the Mac has always been a cheaper alternative for buyers. →
Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → The article discusses how Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →
Lobster Boil → "OpenClaw, a revolutionary open-source AI agent by Peter Steinberger, transforms personal computing by autonomously managing tasks across platforms, sparking a Mac Mini craze and hinting at a future where AI agents are integral to daily life." →
‘No Near-Term Catalyst,’ KeyBanc on Apple Stock → Near-term catalysts may not sway long-term investors, but if Apple's valuation seems steep, critique the pricing, not its promising 14% revenue growth forecast. →
Harmful chemicals found in popular headphones → Apple's AirPods Pro 2 and JBL's Tune 720BT topped the safety charts, while budget brands like Temu raised red flags for hazardous chemical exposure. →
When does Apple split its stock? → Apple's stock split history shows a pattern of adjusting high share prices to maintain accessibility, with splits occurring around $100-$650 thresholds, potentially hinting at a $300 minimum for future splits. →
India's PC market reached a record high of 15.9 million units in 2025. Omdia analyzes this growth, forecasting a 9.8% decline for 2026 as rising component costs and supply pressures limit device affordability and availability.
NB: Mac sales grew 24% year over year, iPad sales by 40%. If the Q4 is representative for the year, Apple could be selling 1.2 million Macs in India each year. The Mac Neo could light this market on fire.
Data-center AI model on MacBook: Why it matters for Apple
The implications for Apple’s competitive position in AI are significant. The dominant narrative that Apple is behind — that Siri is a joke compared to ChatGPT, that Apple Intelligence is underwhelming, that the company missed the generative AI wave — could be misleading. Woods’s experiment suggests Apple may have quietly built the right hardware all along.
Apple silicon’s unified memory architecture lets CPU and GPU share the same high-bandwidth memory pool. And that looks like precisely the design needed for the flash-streaming technique Apple’s own researchers described. No other mainstream laptop platform has this. So MacBook Pro isn’t just a laptop that can run AI on the side. It may be the most capable personal AI computer on the market.
While competitors race to build billion-dollar data centers, the most powerful AI model you can run might soon be the one already sitting in your bag. Apple’s chip lead, combined with techniques like these, could make local AI on Mac — private, fast and free from cloud subscriptions — a genuine reality far sooner than anyone expected.
As Willison noted, the quality tradeoffs are still being evaluated. But we can’t overstate the breakthrough in simply getting it running. The AI race might not be won in a data center after all.
(via Cult of Mac - Your source for the latest Apple news, rumors, analysis, reviews, how-tos and deals.)
