Android

In the free press release linked below Canalys reveals their estimates of vendor shares but not the OS shares for smartphones. However it's not hard to see the OS split due to the high degree of exclusivity of OS's to vendors.

For example, virtually all Nokia devices are Symbian powered, all RIM devices are Blackberries and all Apple devices are iPhone OS.  Motorola is only shipping Android and HTC is the only top 5 vendor that now licenses more than one OS.  Even HTC's portfolio is now heavily Android weighted.

We can carve out Palm (960k units shipped) from the "others" and we're left with mostly Windows Mobile.  My estimate would be about 5 to 6 millionWinMo made it out.

That leads me to the following estimated OS shares:

• Symbian (Nokia): 42%
• Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
• iPhone OS (Apple): 16%
• WinMo (Microsoft): 10%
• Android (Google): 10%
• WebOS (Palm): 2%

If anyone knows the actual Canalys OS shares, let me know.

Global smart phone market growth rises to 67% (Canalys press release: r2010043).

While Apple's patent lawsuit against HTC remains ongoing, the Taiwanese handset maker has reached a licensing agreement with Microsoft to avoid another lawsuit over its Android-powered handsets.

AppleInsider | Microsoft believes Android infringes on patents, HTC strikes deal

Who says Android is "free"?

Android has already crossed the 50,000 app mark, new stats from AndroLib show. Just a week after Google officially confirmed the 38,000 app mark, a raw estimate now says the mobile app store has added 10,000 more apps within at least a few weeks.

via Android Market passes 50,000 apps | Electronista.

The AppShopper iTunes app store spider shows the following totals today:

• Total Apps Approved: 222431
• Total Available Apps: 191465
• Total Available iPhone Apps: 188005
• Total Available iPad Apps: 4902

The iPhone represents nearly 90% of all non-laptop connections in Boingo’s airports. The iPad registered 5.4% of all device connections, while Android tallied 2.5%. Blackberry phones and iPod Touch MP3 players accounted for less than 2% each of total visits. Windows Mobile was less than 1%.

via MacDailyNews - Boingo Wireless: Apple's iPad surpasses Android, Blackberry and Windows Mobile in four days.

Remarkable statistics, through a narrow sampling.  The above data represents all Wi-Fi enabled non-laptop devices in Boingo’s managed network, which includes 58 airports, the Washington State Ferries, and several sporting arenas and convention centers.

"We believe that user experience complexity will grow and weigh in favor of those companies that can control and deliver superior integration through vertical integration of software and hardware,"

link: RIMM, Nokia tops in 'year of the mobile computer' The Ratings Game - MarketWatch

I've been banging on about this for some time. The analyst continues:

"We expect this unstable period to last for another 2-3 years before expected user experience stabilizes and a more horizontal industry emerges," he wrote.

In this type of market, Hall says, Google's Android has a greater advantage in a horizontal market than a vertical one.

"We would caution investors against prematurely declaring Android as the winner as we expect the mobile computer OS platform market to be hotly contested over the next 2-3 years," Hall wrote.

I would argue it will take even longer than 3 years for horizontal (or, as I call it, modular) architectures to become competitive.

The evolution of user interfaces is now so rapid that modes of interaction become obsolete before value chains have time to evolve.

The iPod continues unchallenged long after it over-served because standalone music players are no longer an attractive market to challengers, especially in light of the continued integration with a music service (iTunes).

Well, at least part of the answer appears to be that Google is sharing advertising revenues with carriers that use Android, according to multiple sources who are familiar with the deals.

via Android’s Secret Sauce? Google’s Advertising Rev-Share Deals With Carriers | mocoNews.

This must be why AT&T replaced Google search with Bing on its Android phone and gutted all Google services as well.

Deagol counts about 120k iPad units were pre-ordered on the first day. How do we judge this performance?

The problem will be in using some comparable as a measure of reference. This is a problem because first, there is no equivalent product in history, second, there are few similar products that are pre-ordered and sold without user samples being available, and third it's being sold through a very limited channel (on-line Apple Store). Lastly, the number includes only delivered units vs. reservation for pick-up.

Nevertheless, the figure is intriguing. One class of comparable products might be new smartphone products from companies that were launching on new platforms.

One example is the Android G1--the first Android device. It sold 663k units in the launch quarter. Another is the Nokia 5800, Nokia's first touch capable device. It sold 536k units in the first quarter (up to 1 million in the first 3 months). Sony Ericsson's first Windows Mobile device was the X1. It sold 237k units in the first quarter of sales. The first Sense UI HTC device (the Diamond) sold about 1 million units. The RIM Storm, RIM's first touch device sold 1.6 million units. Finally the iPhone which sold 1.1 million units in the first full quarter of sales (about 1.4 million if we include the weekend sales that fell outside the first quarter).

The iPad does seem to be doing rather well relative to these products. Again, their figures were for a full 90 days of sales and were sold through physical retail channels in a variety of geographic markets.

I will be surprised if the number of units sold in Apple's CQ2 don't exceed 1 million. (Apple will book all these sales only on delivery which means they won't appear in CQ1 sales figures). This will probably mean better performance with a new platform than Nokia, Google, Sony Ericsson or HTC and perhaps better than the iPhone.

(data source: Canalys).

South Korea is considering banning access to the Android Marketplace to its residents if Google continues to offer game apps that are not approved by the country's regulator

link: Korea may block Android Market due to game laws | Electronista

Currently, South Koreans have a choice of two Android-powered smartphones that have access to the Android Marketplace, and more are due for release this year. There are about 4,400 games on the Android Market available to South Koreans, with all of them needing to be rated.

Apple has gone around the South Korean laws by not offering any gaming apps at its App Store for iPhones and iPod touch devices. South Korean developers put up locally approved games under the entertainment category in the App Store, however. Many South Korean iPhone owners create a second account outside of South Korea that does grant them access to games on the App Store as well.

Starting in January, Apple launched a series of C-Level discussions with tier-1 handset makers to underscore its growing displeasure at seeing its iPhone-related IP infringed. The lawsuit filed against HTC thus appears to be Apple's way of putting a public, lawyered-up exclamation point on a series of blunt conversations that have been occurring behind closed doors.

link: Apple talks tough to handset makers - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

Top-tier handset makers continued to avoid implementing multi-touch, but Apple could safely assume that they were hanging back to gauge Apple's response to Motorola and HTC. If there wasn't one, the OEMs would likely read the silence as a green light, especially after Google also moved to enable multi-touch on its Nexus One phone.

Even before the lawsuit, handset makers were having second thoughts about Google, which with the Nexus One had become a direct competitor. Now their faith in Android as the easiest and cheapest way to counter the iPhone has been shaken, says Reiner.

Seems pretty close to what I wrote here:

Why HTC?

Therefore it’s entirely likely that HTC was singled out to disrupt the business logic of modular mobile software. HTC is the pioneer and the hub as the largest licensee for both WinMo/WinP and Android and the inspiration for hundreds of OEM/ODMs to make modular products.

... Other vendors looking at this licensing model might think harder about participating, and that may be the whole point.

In the suit against HTC, Apple's listed infringing phones include HD2, Touch Pro2, Tilt2, Imagio, Pure and Touch Diamond. These all run Windows Mobile and not Android. HTC shipped 80% of the Windows Mobile units in the field, a far larger volume than Android so it stands to reason that the law suit is as much targeting Windows Mobile as Android.

In 2006 Microsoft announced that their partners/OEMs/Operators will get indemnification on IP suits regarding their OS. It's not a sure thing that Apple's patents cover any part of the Windows Mobile stack--vs. whatever parts HTC layered on top. However, there is a high probability that Microsoft will join Google in HTC's defense.

I should also point out that the media's emphasis on Google as the exclusive target of the suit is sensationalistic. Focusing on Google possibly misses a hidden agenda.

Namely that Apple is attacking the hub of the modular approach to mobile computing while largely leaving the integrated vendors like Palm and RIM alone (the dispute with Nokia is over license terms for GSM patents and not yet about UI patents).

Therefore it's entirely likely that HTC was singled out to disrupt the business logic of modular mobile software. HTC is the pioneer and the hub as the largest licensee for both WinMo/WinP and Android and the inspiration for hundreds of OEM/ODMs to make modular products.

HTC's defense will be complicated and difficult due to these dependencies. Legal risk weighs heavily on large corporations, especially when the payoff is marginal at best. Other vendors looking at this licensing model might think harder about participating, and that may be the whole point.

AppleInsider | First AT&T phone with Google Android will feature Yahoo search

As the Backflip will mark the first time U.S. customers under contract with AT&T will have the option to choose between Android and the iPhone, every Motorola Backflip that AT&T sells might potentially be at the expense of an iPhone.

That Backflip sold will not generate Google any ad revenue since it will offer Yahoo/Microsoft search exclusively. Nor will the Backflip generate any license revenue for Google, because Android is licensed without a fee.

If that buyer would instead have bought an iPhone, the search from mobile Safari would have some non-zero value.

It is therefore pretty obvious that, at least in this instance, Android is destroying value for Google.

See also:

Android vs. Google (part I)