revenue

The biggest function is engineering, by far.

Apple had about 166,000 full-time employees globally at its fiscal year ending September 27, 2025, according to business data aggregator Bullfincher. That’s more than double the number of people it employed (about 60,400) in fiscal year 2011, when founder Steve Jobs served his last full year as CEO.

According to Apple's job creation page, 80,000 employees — a little less than half of the company's workforce — are in the U.S., with an additional 450,000 working for the company's suppliers.

Apple posted $416 billion in revenue in 2025. Based on 166,000 full-time workers, the company brought in about $2.5 million per employee. By comparison, in 2011, a year before Tim Cook took over as CEO, per-employee revenue was lower, at $1.79 million (based on $108 billion in revenues and about 60,400 full-time employees).

Source: TheStreet

NB: Over half a million including suppliers. Employment by function is as follows:…

Needle mover?

In a video segment titled Pressure Points, Munster said the device could modestly increase Apple's overall revenue while expanding its reach in the education market.

"The new $AAPL MacBook Neo should add 0.5% to overall revenue for the next year. I believe it won't impact margins."

Munster estimated the device could add roughly $2 billion in annual revenue to Apple's Mac segment.

Apple's Mac business generated about $34 billion in fiscal 2025, meaning the Neo could provide roughly a 6% boost to that segment if adoption plays out as expected.

The analyst said Apple is targeting a large pool of potential buyers in the U.S. education market, where many students currently rely on Chromebooks.

"This market, if we just take the U.S. alone, is about 25 million students," Munster said in the video, adding that investors may think of this as "new customers for Apple."

"My take is that they're probably doing this at a similar margin profile as their existing products," he said.

Munster added that Apple's gross margins could remain near 48% across the coming quarters, suggesting the lower-cost Mac should not pressure profitability even as it expands Apple's customer base.

Source: Yahoo Finance via Analyst: Gene Munster

NB: Customer base is everything…

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending March 1, 2026.

Office Hours

Our first Office Hours interactive seminar and Ask Me Anything questions/answer session will be on March 4th, after, presumably all the new announcements Apple will be making during the week. I will be broadcasting to you en vivo y en directo from Paris.

Apple March 4 Special Event – Q&A → Join us for an exclusive Asymco One live Q&A on March 4 at 3pm ET to dissect Apple's latest business moves. →

Research

How many Apple users are in China?

Greater China (GC) is a specific reporting segment for Apple, encompassing Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, with a combined population nearing 1.5 billion. This region is not just a significant contributor to Apple's revenue—accounting for 18% of net sales in Q4 2025—but also a dynamic landscape of technological adoption and consumer behavior. The smartphone user base in GC has surged from 690 million in 2016 to nearly a billion in 2025, with projections reaching 1.08 billion by 2029.

The iOS ecosystem within GC exhibits varied dynamics across its constituent regions. While Macao maintains a steady iOS share of around 60%, Mainland China and Taiwan show different trajectories. Analyzing these trends through mobile OS share data reveals iOS's ascent, suggesting robust potential for further penetration and user engagement. As Apple navigates this complex market, understanding GC's historical growth patterns and future prospects is crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities and sustaining its competitive edge. →

---

Nota Bene

Apple #1 phone vendor in Europe → Apple leads Q4 2025 with a 7% YoY shipment rise driven by iPhone 17, while Samsung follows with 4% growth; Xiaomi faces a 6% decline amid shifting regional dynamics. →

Are Solid State Batteries Finally Here? → Donut Lab has partnered with VTT for independent battery tests, with full reports and videos to follow. →

iPhone becomes India’s top single export item → In 2025, Apple's iPhone exports from India, driven by Tata and Foxconn plants and a robust supply chain, reached $23 billion, making smartphones the top export category. →

Apple’s App Store growth is reaccelerating → Apple's Services, beyond just the App Store, are poised for robust growth, driven by global market expansion and strong hardware demand. →

Here’s why demand for Macs has spiked → Mac lead times have surged to multi-year highs due to increased demand, notably impacting models like Mac Studio, MacBook Pro M4, and Mac Mini. →

A resource for AVP news → "AVP VIP offers a weekly, ad-free digest of tech news and insights, accessible to Asymco One members." →

Apple to Start Assembling Mac mini in the United States This Year → Apple revamps the Mac mini with M4 chips and boosts U.S. chip sourcing, starting at $599 without display, amid rising demand. →

Apple Pay Aiming Launch in India This Year → Apple Pay aims to launch in India by late 2026, pending regulatory approvals and fee negotiations with card issuers. →

iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information → Apple's iPhone and iPad achieve unprecedented NATO compliance, marking a pivotal shift in secure mobile technology acceptance. →

Eddy Cue says Brazil is Apple TV’s second-largest market, talks Netflix-Warner merger → In an interview, Apple's Eddy Cue highlighted Brazil as the second-largest and fastest-growing market for Apple TV subscribers, while noting potential impacts from proposed streaming regulations and a possible Netflix-Warner deal. Specific user and device numbers were not disclosed. →

DRAM Shortage Will Cause ‘Seismic Shift’ in Smartphone Market, But Apple Will Be Less Affected → A looming DRAM shortage due to AI demand will slash smartphone sales by 13% in 2026, forcing a market shift towards pricier devices, with relief not expected until mid-2027. →

---

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Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.

Greater China.

As previously reported, China represented 18% of net sales for Apple in the fourth quarter of 2025. This was up from 15% the year before and the third largest reporting segment. The segment grew by 37.9% year-on-year.

It's time to understand precisely how big this market is in terms of users, iPhone install base and device install base, with an eye toward understanding the history and potential for growth.

First, it's important to note that Apple refers to "Greater China" (GC) not just China. That means within this reporting segment are Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. The populations are approximately, 1.4 billion, 23.2 million, 7.5 million and 700k respectively.

Second, the population of smartphone users has been growing dramatically. In 2016 there were about 690 million (GC) and in 2025 the number is about 997 million. The forecast for 2029 is 1.08 billion.

Third, the share of iOS has been rising but at different rates in the three regions (Macao is excluded because of small relative size, but Apple is holding iOS share steady at about 60%.)

These graphs represent the trends in Mobile OS share as collected by Statcounter and trendlines for iOS are shown with projections to 2029.

Multiplying the share numbers by the user numbers, including projections gives the following iOS users summary.

Personal AI

"OpenClaw [is] driving Mac lead times to multi-year highs." — Analyst Erik Woodring

As of Thursday, February 19th, lead times across most Mac products have quickly inflected to multi-year highs, around 2-4 weeks in the US (Exhibit 58), with lead times for Mac Studio the longest (27 days) followed by MacBook Pro M4 (23 days) and Mac Mini (19 days).

Source: Morgan Stanley via Apple 3.0

NB: It's not just the Mac Mini that is seeing a spike in sales...

Services is much more than App Store

Apple’s App Store revenue growth is strengthening in February, with Morgan Stanley saying the latest data points to a faster pace of expansion heading into the March quarter.

The firm’s analyst, Erik Woodring, said in a note Monday that App Store net revenue is growing 9 percent year-over-year month-to-date, which represents “a 230bps acceleration from January off a 700bps easier Y/Y compare.”

Woodring added that quarter-to-date revenue is now rising 7.5 percent, putting it “50bps behind our +8.0% Y/Y March quarter App Store forecast.”

The bank kept its March-quarter App Store growth and Services growth forecasts unchanged at 8 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively.

Morgan Stanley said the acceleration is broad-based across major markets. China’s App Store is growing 4 percent year-over-year after a decline in January, while the U.S. is rising 3 percent, a 40-basis-point improvement. Japan is down 1 percent, while the rest of the world is seeing 22 percent growth.

The analysts also cited rising Mac lead times, noting they have “quickly inflected to multi-year highs” due to demand for the on-device AI tool OpenClaw.

They said stronger Taiwan component supplier revenue in January is another positive indicator, pointing to “very robust strength in server demand coming from the largest global cloud service providers.”

Source: Yahoo Finance

NB:     With new products due in a few days...

Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Feb 22, 2026.

Research

Teen Survey Update: What happens when teens grow up?

Latest data indicates 88% of teens own and intend to purchase iPhones, marking a decade-long trend of increasing adoption. This phenomenon transcends mere functionality; the iPhone has become a cultural icon, symbolizing status and identity.

Unlike other Apple products, such as Apple TV+ or Apple Music, which struggle for traction among teens, the iPhone's appeal is deeply woven into the social fabric, partly due to generational continuity—the children of early iPhone adopters are now loyal users themselves.

In contrast, social media platforms illustrate the fickle nature of tech usage among younger demographics. While Facebook remains prevalent among older millennials, Gen Z gravitates towards Instagram and TikTok, reflecting shifts in cultural preferences and digital behaviors.

For Apple, success in services like Music and TV+ hinges on leveraging existing family dynamics through bundling.

Read More →→→

Apple in Europe: How many iPhone switchers are addressable in the near term?

On the Q4 call, Tim Cook highlighted Greater China’s 38% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled by record iPhone sales, strong upgrade activity, and double-digit retail traffic gains.

Europe, however, drew little attention—despite generating more revenue for Apple than China. This is peculiar.

Europe’s smartphone market shows steady structural gains for iOS. Since 2018, share has risen from 24% to 39%, while Android has fallen from 74% to 60%—a 15-point swing equal to roughly 70 million additional users. With an installed base near 459 million users versus about 300 million in the U.S., Europe combines scale with affluence.

In sum, the pattern for Apple in Europe is not saturation but share transfer, signaling durable competitive strength in a mature market and an inkling of how all markets will eventually behave in maturity.

Read More →→→

Estimating 2035 iPhone Users

In the last quarter Apple reported 2.5 billion active devices. Of those, I estimate 1.6 billion are iPhones.

Using this as a base, I've created an iPhone installed base estimate looking forward to 2030, integrating Statcounter’s market share data, Ericsson’s global smartphone user forecasts, and BankMyCell’s smartphone install base.

The sources broadly align through 2025, though Statcounter’s historical iOS share (2017–2023) diverges somewhat, possibly reflecting Android’s heavier web traffic footprint due to usage patterns and bot activity rather.

Taken together, the data points to iPhone nearing 2 billion active devices by 2030, consistent with overall smartphone adoption. Android’s projected rise toward 4.5 billion users signals continuing headroom.

If switching dynamics and monetization trends persist, Apple’s ecosystem could expand to 2.5–3 billion users by 2035, with growth thereafter driven by switching and increased engagement depth and value extraction per user.

Read More →→→

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Nota Bene

Apple Announces Special Event in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4 → Apple is hosting intimate, global "Special Apple Experience" events on March 4, 2026, likely unveiling new products like the iPhone 17e and M5-powered MacBooks, marking a fresh twist on traditional live-streamed launches.

Apple adds video experience to Apple Podcasts → The "pod" in podcasts originated from Apple's iPod, with the company popularizing the medium by integrating podcasting into iTunes in 2005, and continuing to innovate with features like video podcast support and dynamic ad insertion.

Why not maroon? The Macalope ponders the power of color → Apple's upcoming lineup, featuring color-excited anticipation for the iPhone 17e and modest updates to iPads, promises subtle yet intriguing tech advancements.

Dan Ives Says Apple’s AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion → Apple's unparalleled distribution through its vast user base offers a significant competitive edge for rapidly monetizing AI innovations, potentially adding $1.5 trillion in value.

While big tech burns cash on AI, Apple waits → As foundation models commoditize, Apple strategically curates top AI tech into its ecosystem, prioritizing user experience over engine development.

Secure the chips, absorb the costs, and grab more market share → Apple faces memory cost inflation potentially raising iPhone prices, yet its strong ecosystem and execution provide resilience, whereas competitors like Samsung may struggle more due to lesser volume leverage.

iPhone Emergency SOS via Satellite Helped Six Skiers Survive Tahoe Avalanche → Six skiers survived a deadly Lake Tahoe avalanche by using iPhone's Emergency SOS via satellite, highlighting its transition from luxury to essential. This feature enabled crucial communication with rescuers in remote areas lacking cellular service. The evolution mirrors mobile phones but faces slower adoption due to satellite bandwidth constraints.

The US Supreme Court has ruled against US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a raft of global tariffs → Apple and other affected companies may soon seek refunds for tariffs paid, following the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate Trump's tariffs, though the exact timeline and amount remain uncertain.

Bankers complain that Apple has a tight grip on mobile payments → Canadian banks struggled to compete in the mobile wallet market, dominated by tech giants like Apple and Google, due to their risk-averse nature clashing with tech's innovation-driven approach.

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The all new Asymco One

Introducing Asymco One Early Bird Pricing. → Asymco celebrates 17 years of insightful Apple analysis, launching Asymco One to guide stakeholders through Apple's evolving era with comprehensive content and community engagement. →

Introducing: Asymco One Office Hours → Join Asymco One's monthly Office Hours with Horace to get live insights on Apple's business and financials, with special editions during key events.

All Asymco Podcasts. All in One: Asymco One. → Exciting news: All Asymco Podcasts now under Asymco One subscription with remastered classics and new episodes.

---

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Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.

The all-in-one on Apple

In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

• During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
• Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
• Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

The increases in multiples:

• 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
• 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
• 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
• Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
  36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

Let’s learn together. 

To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One. 

Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:

1. Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene. 
2. Reconsider your assumptions with Research. 
3. Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin. 
4. Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts. 
5. Get your questions answered during Office Hours. 
6. Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
7. Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.

All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.

Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.

It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone. 

For early adopters we are offering a discount of $150 with the code INNOVATE.

I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person. 

Yours,

Horace Dediu

–
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What's the value of distribution?

Dan Ives Says Apple's AI Alone Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion — And Almost No One Is Pricing It In  Benzinga

Apple's Biggest AI Advantage Is Its Installed Base
Unlike most AI companies still searching for users, Apple already has them — more than 2.5 billion active devices and over 1.5 billion iPhones worldwide. That gives Apple an unmatched distribution engine to roll out AI-powered services instantly across its ecosystem.

Ives expects Apple's long-awaited Siri overhaul and broader AI platform to begin rolling out in phases starting this summer, with more advanced capabilities arriving into 2026. The real opportunity isn't just smarter devices — it's monetization.

Apple could introduce AI-driven subscription services, embedding recurring, high-margin software revenue into its ecosystem — a shift that would move Apple deeper into SaaS-like economics.

Source: Benzinga

NB: Modeling AI opportunities is an evolving problem. First we have the problem of costs which are changing rapidly and then there is adoption which is changing even faster. Revenues and cash flows are harder still as the business models are unclear. The products themselves are not necessarily stable and jobs-to-be-done questions abound.

 

 

An update using operating system market share

Apple's performance in China is often noted and scrutinized. During the last quarterly earnings call Amit Daryanani asked:

... the other second question I have for you is maybe just touch on the China strength you folks had. I think this is very close to all-time high revenues you have had in China. What is driving the strength over here?

To which Tim Cook gave the following answer:

Greater China was up 38% year on year. It was driven by iPhone, where we set an all-time revenue record. So it was the best iPhone quarter in history in Greater China. It is driven by the customer enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 lineup. And I would tell you that during the quarter, traffic in our stores in China grew by strong double digits year over year. It was a terrific quarter. Our installed base reached an all-time high in both Greater China and Mainland China. And we set an all-time record for the upgraders, and we saw strong double-digit growth on switchers.

That's remarkable growth and every quarter we get this sort of discussion. But I don't recall ever there being a similar discussion about Europe. This is strange because, and the following graph shows, Europe is a bigger market for Apple than China.

Europe also grew, and at 12.7%, grew faster than the Americas and faster than Japan.

Regional Sales CQ4	2025	2024	Growth
Americas	58,529	52,648	11.2%
Europe	38,146	33,861	12.7%
Greater China	25,526	18,513	37.9%
Japan	9,413	8,987	4.7%
Rest of Asia Pacific	12,142	10,291	18.0%

So why is Europe not discussed. Management does offer some mentions:

The all-in-one on Apple

In July this of this year Asymco turns 17. In April of this year Apple turns 50. 

This means that Asymco has been following Apple for one third of its life. I regret that it has not been for longer but oh, what a third it has been.

• During 2009, Apple Net Sales were $46.7 billion.  17 years later revenues should comfortably top $500 billion. 
• Earnings per share (split-adjusted) in 2009 were 37c. This year EPS will be around $9.5. 
• Most importantly, at the end of 2009 Apple had about 107 million active devices (43 million Macs, 33 million iPhones and 30 million iPods!) Today it has 2.5 billion. 

The increases in multiples:

• 23x Active devices, or a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 20%
• 11x Revenues, CAGR of 15%
• 26x Earnings, CAGR of 21%
• Apart from the customer love affair these numbers reveal, investors were awakened.
  36x increase in Apple share price, from $7.5 to about $270. That’s 17 years of 23.5% growth. 

The appreciation of the share price faster than the other underlying metrics reflects the undervaluation that existed for most of the last 17 years. Its value grew a lot more because it was too cheap to begin with. 

That was perhaps my most important observation. A recurring undervaluation reflecting a perceived fragility. The more I studied and came to learn how the company operates the more I realized that the perception was wrong. It was in fact the opposite of reality.

When I started my “Apple model” in 2009 I did it out of indignation. I had access to a few analyst reports covering the company and, when looking at their forecasts and assumptions, I was shocked to read that they treated Apple as a computer company. Two years had passed since the iPhone launched and I had made the radical assumption that the future of the company would be determined by the dynamics of phones--later to be broadened into “devices.” This did not appear radical to me because five years earlier Apple had created the market for music players. A market it came to dominate. It seemed very rational to me that with the iPod (and iTunes), Apple had demonstrated that it was more than a computer company. Or perhaps more accurately, it was so profoundly different as a computer company that it redefined what computers were. Nonetheless, observers seemed stuck with the perception that once a PC maker, always a PC maker.  

So here is my prediction today: Apple at 50 is no less capable than Apple at 20. Indeed, it is more so.  This is because, even if it has not yet completed its quest, the company has sought self knowledge.  A knowledge which I have sought to gain as a distant observer.

And so here I am, inviting you to come along with me on this journey. 

Asymco is being re-launched. Apple at 50 is entering a new era. It has transitioned from Apple ][ to Mac to iPod, iPhone, iPad, Watch and Spatial Computing. But it has always been the company that brought computers to people and people to computers. The new era of computers that appear more like people is dawning and the connection between the two needs to be built. Only Apple is capable of creating this connection. And only Asymco is able to tell the asymmetric story of how it will happen.

Let’s learn together. 

To make this research possible we’re launching Asymco One. 

Asymco One is the analysis you need for understanding everything in the world of Apple. It’s a bundle of seven categories of content:

1. Curated news and commentary with Nota Bene. 
2. Reconsider your assumptions with Research. 
3. Save time with the weekly summary in the Bulletin. 
4. Supercharge your narrative with Asymetric podcasts. 
5. Get your questions answered during Office Hours. 
6. Attend in-person or online the full-day Conference.
7. Search over 1800 posts, 60,000 comments, 400 podcasts and thousands of graphs since July 2009 in the Archives.

All while connecting with the most knowledgeable community of thinkers and investors in Apple.

Asymco One is a bundle which will offer over one thousand updates per year providing the ultimate intuition on Apple for stakeholders and connoisseurs of the most important phenomenon of our time.

It’s available as a subscription for $1000/yr, about the price of an adequately configured iPhone. 

But for you, dear reader, who have been with us for so long, I am offering a discount of $250 with the code PIONEER.

I hope to see you in the Comments, the Office Hours, the only Conference and in person. 

Yours,

Horace Dediu

–
Asymco One: About | Subscribe
Use code PIONEER to save 25%.