Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

Google

  1. Nexus One coming to Vodafone not Verizon

    Research

    "We wont be selling a Nexus One with Verizon and this is a reflection of the amazing innovation happening across the open Android ecosystem," Google said in an emailed statement.

    via UPDATE 1-Google smartphone coming to stores, no Verizon| Reuters.

    Come again?

    The breakdown of the deal signals Verizon may view Google as a competitor rather than a partner when it comes to Nexus One sales, which are probably at less than half a million since the phone’s January debut, said BGC Partners’s Colin Gillis. 'It’s really a flop for Google,' said the New York-based analyst."

    See also: Bloomberg.

  2. iAd adds up to a lot of cash

    Research · 3 comments

    "The average user spends over 30 minutes every day using apps on their phone. If we said we wanted to put an ad up every 3 minutes, that's 10 ads per device per day. That would be 1b ad opportunities per day."

    This is going to take some time to sink in over at the Googleplex.  By pushing Android, Google removed themselves from this opportunity.  Jobs continues:

    "We do not have any plans to become a worldwide ad agency. We tried to buy a company called AdMob, and Google came in and snatched them from us. We bought Quattro instead. They're teaching us and we're learning as fast as we can."

    Not to put too fine a point on it, but I did suggest iAd was coming on Dec. 30 of last year:

    I think it’s a certainty that Apple will introduce an ad serving platform for the iPhone (and any tablet) in 2010. This will amount to a checkbox that developers will check when submitting their app to the store. Doing so will allow Apple to place ads on the app in return for a check in the mail to the developer for the impressions.

  3. Google and Microsoft swap mobile share

    Research

    according to a report published Monday. ComScore reported that Google's share of smartphone subscribers rose to 9%, compared to 3.8% at the end of November. Meanwhile Apple's share fell 0.1 points to 25.4%, while Microsoft's share fell 4 points to 15.1%.

    via Google's share of mobile market grows: report - MarketWatch.

    Seems Google's gain is Microsoft's loss.

    BlackBerry, saw its share rise 1.3 points to 42.1%, according to the data. The number of owners of smartphones rose 21% in the U.S. in the three months ended in February compared to the prior period.

  4. Apple: When Will They Build Their Own Mobile Search Engine?

    Research

    Apple: When Will They Build Their Own Mobile Search Engine? - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com.

    The opportunity here is not to do web search better than Google, but to find a way to index the information that lives on the iPhone ecosystem.  With potential for millions of apps and hundreds of millions of iPhones generating usage patterns a separate mountain of information is emerging independent of the current cloud.  The mobile cloud has different hooks and different relevance measures.

    Mobile search will be as much about new algorithms as about getting a new way to spider the data.

    It seems Apple is better positioned to leverage this emerging space than Google.

  5. Why Google is headed for trouble

    Research · 4 comments

    Never mind the gossip and tales of intrigue. Ignore the stories of betrayal and affairs. Forget the animosity and ego tripping.

    No, the real reason you should be nervous if you are betting on Google long term is that Schmidt gave his first iPhone away.

    By August of 2007 it's reported that "Schmidt had long ago given up on the Apple handset because he couldn't stand the on-screen keyboard. His wife had tested a prototype, but didn't care to keep it. Schmidt, we're told, ended up giving his iPhone to [his mistress] as a gift"

    Here is a guy who has in his hands one of the first iPhones and he treats it with contempt.

    He did not get it.

    Nor, it seems, does he get the iPad.

    Google does not understand where computing is going.

    I don't mean this in a small way. I mean this in a big way.

  6. Nexus One: 135k Units Sold

    Research

    Despite the fact that the Google Nexus One is the most advanced Android handset to date, and enjoyed substantial buzz leading up to its release, the launch has been overshadowed by lower than expected sales.

    link: Initial Sales of Original iPhone, Droid, and Nexus One Compared - Mac Rumors

    On the heels of the 71% cut in estimates this should not be a surprise. Nor should it be given Rubin's stated goal:

    Rubin hopes his company can sell, at the very least, 150,000 Nexus One devices.

    link: Google’s Mobile Chief Andy Rubin on the Google Phone & the Androidification of Everything – GigaOM

  7. Music. Sweet music

    Podcast · 37 comments

    iPad Death Watch : AAPLinvestors

    You can't go wrong betting against this bunch.

    (link above reproduced below due to bandwidth issues with their servers.)

    “Any tablet computer, including Apple’s eagerly anticipated iPad, will face serious problems in generating big sales. Tablets look cool, but the reality is they don’t do anything new.” Michael Comeau, Minyanville, 5 March 2010

    Dvorak:”I’m telling you, look at this product coming out of India called the Adam.” Curry: “A-D-A-M?” Dvorak: “Yeah.” Curry: “And it’s a what it’s a pad?” Dvorak: “It’s an iPad Killer. And I hate to use that term since the iPad is probably dead anyway.” No Agenda Podcast, Adam Curry & John C. Dvorak, 25 February 2010

    “Fewer capabilities (than a netbook) but a similar size? Not a good start.”Lee Gomes, Forbes Asia Magazine, 5 March 2010

    “We of course build plastic mock-ups that we show (to customers)…we had a slate form factor. The feedback was that for (our) customers it will not work because of the need to have (a physical) keyboard. These were 14-year-old kids, who, I thought, would be most willing to try a virtual keyboard but they said no, we want the physical keyboard.” Mika Majapuro, Worldwide Sr. Product Marketing Manager, Lenovo, 22 February 2010

    “The Apple iPad is not going to be the company’s next runaway best seller.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 12 February 2010

    “It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’” Bill Gates, Microsoft, 10 February 2010

    “The rally has been especially kind to seemingly racy stocks such as Apple and Google. Both have pole-vaulted to market-surpassing gains over the past 12 months, despite the fact that the former’s hamster-wheel of innovation (to borrow an apt phrase from my Fool colleague Joe Magyer) may have hit a snag with the iPad. ” Shannon Zimmerman, The Motley Fool, 10 February 2010

    “It’s not a tablet, it’s an extension of the iPod Touch. It has some new kinks, but generally speaking it’s using the iPhone OS. It’s more like a smart phone than a personal computer. It’s the Newton reborn. What’s missing most is the communications aspect.” Andreas Haas (former Apple executive), CEO, Axiotron (Modbook), 7 February 2010

    Before Jan 20th, 49 percent of people said they didn’t think they needed an Apple Tablet. That number jumped to 61 percent after the announcement. Fifty-nine percent of buyers wouldn’t pay extra for 3G coverage. Whether this device becomes a big hit is anyone’s guess but based on this study it sure looks doubtful.” Retrevo, 5 February 2010

    “Yet it’s hard to see how the iPad, in the form unveiled last month, will come close to transforming daily life as much as the iPod or iPhone. The challenge with the iPad will be less about improving an established market than building a new one.” Arik Hesseldahl, BusinessWeek, 5 February 2010

    “I added it up and … like 800 people are going to buy the iPad. . . . It’s not that the iPad is a failure. It’s just a product ahead of its time. No one should actually buy this iPad — between its inevitable first-generation bugs, fulfillment problems, and buyer’s remorse over added features and price drops, it’s heartbreak waiting to happen.” Molly Wood, CNet, 31 January 2010

    “It was a bigger iPod Touch. I question whether those features would be enough to get people to buy new machines.” Satoru Iwata, President, Nintendo, 29 January 2010

    “The company once notorious for its ability to upend convention and revolutionize markets may no longer have what it takes, worry some technology journalists. Call it the iPad or the iPlod, but the message seems clear: Apple may have lost its mojo.” Jeremy A. Kaplan, FOXNews.com, 28 January 2010

    “What’s the single most worrisome thing about the iPad? It’s Apple’s monopoly on distribution of applications. ” Harry McCracken, Tecnologizer.com, 29 January 2010

    “The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I’ve seen and heard, this won’t be it.” John Dvorak, MarketWatch, 29 January 2010

    “It is a humorous world in how Microsoft is much more open than Apple,” Frank Shaw, Microsoft, Corporate VP, Corporate Communications, 29 January 2010

    “When Steve Jobs first demonstrated the Apple Mac, he used the words “insanely great” to demonstrate the full graphical display of the computer. It’s a tag that has stuck around to this day among Apple fans. But, today’s comments from Jobs that the iPad is a “magical, revolutionary” device ring hollow.”Dan Wayne, apc mag, 28 January 2010

    “All the people (including me) who felt underwhelmed by the iPad initially might have missed its true potential. Put another way: the iPad is all about software. Forget the sleek form factor – that’s just a prerequisite. Ironically, it’s the software and services that Microsoft never ‘got’, that Apple totally does get.” Dan Wayne, apc mag, 12 February 2010

    “Nothing from the iPad specs that I’ve seen really shows any great cause for celebration. Unless Apple has also developed some new type of power source, such as nuclear cells or magical hamsters on tiny spinning wheels for the iPad, don’t expect the claims about battery life to hold true. ” John Breeden II, Government Computer News, 28 January 2010

    “Ultimately, the iPad is a large iPod touch: a great device to draw your inspiration from, but perhaps not the seismic shift in technology that we were expecting.” Claudine Beaumont, The Telegraph, 28 January 2010

    “Behold: The Apple iFlop Neither “truly magical” nor “revolutionary,” the cluelessly named Apple iPad tablet device has dropped like a shiny wedge into the gadget game, dividing tech watchers in to opposing views — the critical and the adoring.” Scott Moritz, TheStreet.com, 28 January 2010

    “9 Worst Things About The Apple Tablet: 1. No Flash 2. Its screen 3. Its price 4. Closed App Store 5. Its name 6. No multitasking 7. No camera 8. No USB 9. AT&T deal Bianca Bosker, Huffington Post, 29 January 2010

    “What do the new Apple iPad and Google’s Nexus One have in common? Both were DOA: Disappointing On Arrival. Why is the iPad a disappointment? Because it doesn’t allow us to do anything we couldn’t do before. Sure, it is a neat form factor, but it comes with significant trade-offs, too. No 16:9 widescreen, for example.” David Coursey, PC World, 28 January 2010

    “E-readers will outsell iPads because of the simple economics of the consumer device market. It’s triple the weight and 30% thicker than an e-reader. You need two hands to hold it. It’s got a backlit screen, and it’s too expensive to give one to everyone in your house.” Russ Wilcox, CEO E-Ink (makers of Amazon’s Kindle), 28 January 2010

    “It seems like a high priced, unnecessary trinket to me.” Paul Thurrott, SuperSite for Windows, 27 January 2010

    “Apple iPad - failure, joke or fiasco? Pick one” Linen DeFiller, MillionFace.com, 27 January 2010

    “The press weren’t cheering and whooping. I didn’t see anybody pee their pants … Not one! The only people I saw cheering were the people who work at Apple down in the front two rows … Al Gore was going crazy. I wanted to see more. It’s a big iPod. What is there to do there? Play a video game on a bigger screen? I thought it [iPad] was ‘paving the cow path’ (enshrining a makeshift solution).” Dan Lyons aka Fake Steve Jobs, 27 January 2010

    “Let’s face it, the Internet was designed for the PC. The Internet is not designed for the iPhone. That’s why they’ve got 75,000 applications — they’re all trying to make the Internet look decent on the iPhone.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, 21 October 2009

  8. Why HTC (Part II)

    Research · 1 comment

    Starting in January, Apple launched a series of C-Level discussions with tier-1 handset makers to underscore its growing displeasure at seeing its iPhone-related IP infringed. The lawsuit filed against HTC thus appears to be Apple's way of putting a public, lawyered-up exclamation point on a series of blunt conversations that have been occurring behind closed doors.

    link: Apple talks tough to handset makers - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

    Top-tier handset makers continued to avoid implementing multi-touch, but Apple could safely assume that they were hanging back to gauge Apple's response to Motorola and HTC. If there wasn't one, the OEMs would likely read the silence as a green light, especially after Google also moved to enable multi-touch on its Nexus One phone.

    Even before the lawsuit, handset makers were having second thoughts about Google, which with the Nexus One had become a direct competitor. Now their faith in Android as the easiest and cheapest way to counter the iPhone has been shaken, says Reiner.

    Seems pretty close to what I wrote here:

    Why HTC?

    Therefore it’s entirely likely that HTC was singled out to disrupt the business logic of modular mobile software. HTC is the pioneer and the hub as the largest licensee for both WinMo/WinP and Android and the inspiration for hundreds of OEM/ODMs to make modular products.

    ... Other vendors looking at this licensing model might think harder about participating, and that may be the whole point.

  9. Analyst Cuts Nexus One Estimates by 71%

    Research

    We previously estimated that Google might sell 3.5 mn Nexus One units in 2010. Initial data-points were disappointing, possibly due to limited marketing and customer service challenges. Flurry estimated (based on mobile traffic) that Google sold 20,000 in the first week, and 80,000 in the first month, both annualizing to 1.0 mn. We forecast that Google sells 1.0 mn Nexus One units in FY2010, benefiting from US carriers other than T-Mobile, and non-US carriers such as Vodafone, promoting the device too, but suffering from limited marketing activity. We assume that Google rolls out a second Nexus handset, markets it more aggressively, and makes it available offline, and therefore forecast that Google sells 2 mn handsets per year in 2011 and future years.

    link: Goldman: We Were Too Rosy on Google Smartphone Unit Sales - MarketBeat - WSJ

    First they get excited over Palm then fawn over Nexus One. Then they take it all back. Give us a break.

    Read my takes here:

    Google the Shopkeeper
    Nexus One: 80k units in first month -Flurry
    Android vs. Google

  10. Why HTC?

    Research · 6 comments

    In the suit against HTC, Apple's listed infringing phones include HD2, Touch Pro2, Tilt2, Imagio, Pure and Touch Diamond. These all run Windows Mobile and not Android. HTC shipped 80% of the Windows Mobile units in the field, a far larger volume than Android so it stands to reason that the law suit is as much targeting Windows Mobile as Android.

    In 2006 Microsoft announced that their partners/OEMs/Operators will get indemnification on IP suits regarding their OS. It's not a sure thing that Apple's patents cover any part of the Windows Mobile stack--vs. whatever parts HTC layered on top. However, there is a high probability that Microsoft will join Google in HTC's defense.

    I should also point out that the media's emphasis on Google as the exclusive target of the suit is sensationalistic. Focusing on Google possibly misses a hidden agenda.

    Namely that Apple is attacking the hub of the modular approach to mobile computing while largely leaving the integrated vendors like Palm and RIM alone (the dispute with Nokia is over license terms for GSM patents and not yet about UI patents).

    Therefore it's entirely likely that HTC was singled out to disrupt the business logic of modular mobile software. HTC is the pioneer and the hub as the largest licensee for both WinMo/WinP and Android and the inspiration for hundreds of OEM/ODMs to make modular products.

    HTC's defense will be complicated and difficult due to these dependencies. Legal risk weighs heavily on large corporations, especially when the payoff is marginal at best. Other vendors looking at this licensing model might think harder about participating, and that may be the whole point.