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Android

  1. IDC Forecast: The smartphone market is on track for its worst year ever

    Nota Bene · 2 comments

    AI-driven memory shortage continues to hammer sales; Android sales to drop 20%

    According to analysis firm IDC, smartphone shipments are headed for a 13.9% decline in 2026, a downward revision from the 12.9% decline IDC had anticipated for the year in February. It would also mark the steepest drop in smartphone history, the company said.

    “these pressures are compelling vendors to reduce shipments, raise prices and concentrate on higher price tiers — elevating smartphone [average selling price] to a record $550, up $100 from last year,” IDC senior research director Nabila Popal said in a statement.

    “2026 will be a defining year for the industry as [a] new reality of structurally higher costs take hold,” she added. “For consumers, it means the era of ultra-cheap smartphones is over. For vendors, it means only those that can adapt their strategies to this new cost environment and sustain demand at elevated price points will survive.

    The broader Android smartphone market is set to take the biggest hit, with IDC projecting a 20% year-over-year drop in shipments. Despite that, Samsung is expected to increase its market share in the space at the expense of smaller smartphone companies thanks to its midrange and premium device lineups.

    Apple, the research firm said, is also expected to perform relatively well, with shipments forecast to fall 5.2% on the year, an improvement from a previously anticipated decline of 8.1%.

    In its most recent earnings report, Apple announced iPhone revenue growth of 20% for the second consecutive quarter, thanks to its strong iPhone 17 lineup and improved sales out of China.

    But CEO Tim Cook also warned of supply constraints due to both the memory shortage and the dearth of iPhone processors.

    See also: The Smartphone Market is Cracking.

    Source: Yahoo Finance

    NB: I would add that Apple also announced that revenues for June quarter would increase at the same rate as they did for March quarter, thus for at least half the year the company will achieve 20% growth in iPhone sales. This is in sharp contrast to both what IDC and Omdia have been reporting.

  2. iPhone Share of US Big 3 Carriers reaches 75%, 77% with Verizon

    Nota Bene · 2 comments

    Android down 14.4%. Small players getting crushed.

    Apple’s quarter one (Q1) 2026 iPhone sales volume in the US was up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY), outperforming the country’s overall smartphone market.

    That market declined 5.7% YoY, according to Counterpoint’s US Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. Apple’s share of volume grew by 4% YoY, as Android device sales declined 14.4% YoY.

    On the impact of the delayed launch,Graham said, “The premium smartphone space in the US is highly consolidated compared to some other markets, with Apple, Google, Samsung and, to some extent, Motorola comprising the vast majority of sales here. When one brand delays a flagship launch, it opens a window of opportunity to fill that vacuum. Apple did just that.”

    Apple grew its market share in each of the Big 3 US carriers. Its share grew the most at Verizon to 77% in Q1 2026.

    “If Apple can avoid significant price increases and continue to outpace its peers in promotional dollars, it will be tough for Android manufacturers to keep up in the year ahead, said Klaehne.

    Source: Counterpoint Research

    NB: What are the dynamics of the US market? The split between Apple and the rest of the market seems to be starker than ever. It's ask if there is a K shaped market emerging…

  3. The Smartphone Market is Cracking

    Nota Bene · 6 comments

    Fundamentals are breaking; Profits evaporate; Competitors flee; Android logic questioned

    Apple’s revenue climbed 22% YoY in Q1 2026, registering the fastest growth among the top five smartphone brands while also hitting a first-quarter record high. Furthermore, the brand led the global smartphone market in terms of shipments for the first time in a first quarter, capturing a 21% share.

    Commenting on Apple’s performance, Research Director Jeff Fieldhack said, “Apple’s growth was driven by sustained demand for the base iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max, with a stronger mix of these models lifting Apple’s overall ASP by 11% YoY.

    Unlike its peers, Apple mostly maintained stable pricing despite rising BOM costs, reflecting its ability to absorb cost pressures and remain insulated from the memory crisis, which helped strengthen its competitive position during the quarter. Regionally, Apple saw broad-based strength, especially across the Asia-Pacific region, driven by subsidies, promotions, and trade-in offers.”

    The global smartphone market’s revenue grew 8% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by strong premium demand and pricing adjustments across major OEM portfolios amid rising Bill of Materials.

    The average selling price (ASP) climbed 12% YoY to reach $399, supported by contraction in entry-level segments and price hikes across regions.

    Apple led the global smartphone market in terms of value, recording its highest-ever first quarter revenue. Apple was the fastest growing brand with revenue up 22% YoY supported by relatively stable pricing compared to peers, despite broad-based price increases across the industry.

    Samsung held an 18% revenue share in Q1 2026, with shipments reaching 21% of the total market, supported by portfolio optimization and strong response for the Galaxy S26 series.

    The global smartphone market is expected to remain under pressure through 2026, and a substantial recovery is expected only in late 2027.

    Source: Counterpoint Research

    NB: The average sales price is up to $399 but Apple, with the largest share and fastest growth, reached $908? There's a lot more that does not make sense.

  4. Will Apple preserve iPhone 18 Pro pricing at 17 Pro levels?

    Nota Bene · 4 comments

    History says yes.

    The global smartphone market is facing structural pressure from rising memory prices. In particular, the spread of AI technology is sharply increasing demand for high-performance memory, tightening supply and pushing prices up quickly. As a result, some Android manufacturers have raised prices on new products, and low-margin budget models could shrink in the market. The industry also sees the trend as potentially leading to a contraction in the overall Android market size.

    Against this backdrop, Apple has chosen a strategy of keeping prices for its main models unchanged. Pu’s analysis said the iPhone 18 Pro is likely to start at $1,099 and the Pro Max at $1,199, maintaining the existing price range. That would be the same as the previous model. It is interpreted as a strategy to secure price competitiveness even if Apple accepts some margin decline to defend market share.

    Apple is also expected to pursue a two-track strategy that considers both price accessibility and profitability. It would keep base-model prices to lower the barrier to entry, while raising prices for higher-end models with larger storage capacity to offset profits. It has also been suggested that an ultra-premium iPhone 18 Ultra could be added, and the overall average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise.

    Ultimately, Apple’s strategy aims to exploit weaknesses in the Android camp, which is under pressure to raise prices. While rivals face demand contraction from higher prices, Apple could keep prices relatively stable and expand user inflows. A recent rise in demand from Android users switching to iPhones has also been detected, raising the likelihood that Apple will strengthen its influence in the premium market through this strategy.

    Source: 디지털투데이 via Analyst: Jeff Pu

    NB: There is always a huge surprise when Apple does the same thing it always does.

  5. The Composition of Active Devices

    Research · 8 comments

    Measuring the future

    In January this year Apple reported that there were 2.5 billion active Apple devices in use. This figure has been getting updated for years and I've been reporting its trajectory and other measures that are correlated to it. For instance the number of Apple subscriptions, Apple Services revenues and other historical indicators such as iCloud accounts and Apple Music.

    Simplifying, I published the "ACTIVE" model which makes some basic projections of this total device count and it's shown below"

    One element of the analysis that has eluded me was the more precise composition of this total "devices". In other words, which devices and what is their mix. We have seen numbers for iPhones but not for other types of devices. I should note that this is not easily derived because we have neither the units sold (only revenues) and we don't know how long they stay in use. The measure of active population implies that the products are bought, used and eventually retired.

    The only clue we have, beside quarterly revenues--and even there wearables and home are not separated by product--is that management occasionally mentions that "more than half" of buyers of a specific product are "new to the product". It's not much to go on.

    But there are other data sets we can tap. StatCounter provides a share of platforms in use by aggregating browser identifying data for a moderately large set of web sites. That may help with share of base but not with how much the total base is. Various other analysts do try to summarize some of the installed base for particular dates.

    Combining all the available data and some interpolation, I set out to do is to provide a yearly count of the population of Apple devices for each year since 2007. Then to try to forecast this population to 2030. The result is shown below:

    The following is a summary for the components for the end of 2025 in millions:

    Year-endMaciPhoneiPadWatchApple TVHomePodOther
    2025233150044220358.561.750.5

    This history looks like this:

    What about the future? Let's dig in.



    This is a future five years away. Is this growth rate and consistency in mix a reasonable assumption?

    To answer, we should zoom out and look at not just Apple's device base. The following graph shows also Android phones and tablets, Windows, Linux (PC) and Game Consoles.[1] It contrasts mobile and "non-mobile" computing and shows the total global population (blue line).

    I have several observations:

    • The total device population now exceeds the total human population. The total number of phone lines was already higher for some time[2] but what are shown here are "computers" insofar as they have CPUs and operating systems that can run third-party apps.
    • Given the device count exceeds human count, how much higher can this total go? The forecast shows a slowing of growth within the next five years but this is not a certainty. The attach rate of devices/person could well exceed 1.2 to 1.3 and go to levels seen in wealthy countries (above 2.) If that is the case then the device total may exceed 16 billion at saturation. This has implications for how far current strategies and business models can run.
    • The composition of device types is fairly constant and form factor substitution is rare. New categories beyond phones and current wearables are hard to anticipate but even if they emerge, the evidence suggests they are additive. Evidently the phone did not so much displace the PC but build on top of it. The potential for wearables and home devices to explode is there but it's hard to image these stealing "share of pocket" any more than phones stole "share of desk or share of backpack". If they do explode, they will add to the total via higher attach rates. 3x human population (24 billion) is possible with new wearables and home[3].
    • AI holds many promises but how AI is accessed is not necessarily requiring of or benefiting from new device types. The smartphone is still the best AI device imaginable[4]. Ambient or passive computing can be provided by existing wearables but, as the graph shows, these are augmentative to phones. If AI introduces a completely new form factor, the impact will take decades to diffuse. As the graph shows, the mobile era is now approaching 20 years with the next five years foreseeable with some confidence. The next 15 years will be discussed in a future post.
    • Android typically captures non-consumers who eventually churn into Apple devices. This means that as long as non-consumption exists, Android grows and as long as Android exists Apple grows. If and when Android growth stops then the dynamics will change and Apple might change strategy to accelerate churn.[5]
    • Google and Apple will be the primary distributors for all software and services into the foreseeable future. Try as they might, challengers face over 9 billion in installed base. Note well how entrenched Windows has been on the desktop even as (free) Linux and (better) macOS alternatives have harvested usage. This rigidity has held over the 1.5 billion addressable market for 30 years now. For additional evidence consider the dynamics, or lack thereof, of the game console business.
    1. It excludes servers and early phone platforms such as Symbian, Blackberry and Linux phones.
    2. According to ITU Facts and Figures 2024, there were 112 mobile-cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants globally in 2024
    3. Households are 1/3 human population and vehicles are only about 1/7 so Home and Automotive don't move the needle much.
    4. AI is, if anything, putting the "smart" back in "smartphone".
    5. This might be what is happening with the Mac Neo, decades after the PC market saturated. Perhaps pieces have finally fallen into place but apart from Chromebooks, it's been very difficult to challenge the Windows PC head-on. (Though the iPad was possibly designed to displace some of the PC usage, it hit mainly with non-consuming very young or very old and PC use was unaffected.)

    —

    Join me for a live discussion of this research and more at Asymco Office Hours Live Q&A on Friday, May 1, 2026.

  6. John Ternus has left big shoes to fill

    Research · 4 comments

    April 21, 2040

    It's been 15 years but John Ternus has finally stepped down as Apple CEO. Analysts described the transition as expected rather than disruptive, noting that investors had long anticipated Ternus' eventual departure. Nevertheless, he leaves with many questions still unanswered about Apple's long term strategy. Apple incoming CEO faces a defining challenge: Fixing the company’s Services dependence.

    It's been a tumultuous tenure for Ternus but he is leaving with significant accomplishments:

    • John grew Apple devices to 4.5 billion from 2.5 billion when he took over in 2026. Many have pointed out that he has been building on Tim Cook's success and that John has only added 2 billion devices in 15 years, averaging 110 million per year. The reality is that most of those have been switchers from Android rather than first-time users. Because of this, Android's 5 billion active devices means Android users still outnumber Apple users. Apple's users do have attach rates of over 2.5 devices per user including passive AI wearables but the competition is not standing still. The new CEO will face the challenge of trying to wrest majority market share in a saturated 12 billion active device market.
    • With over 2 billion customers, Apple is capturing over 40% of all AI revenues. Critics point out that the company has not grown beyond its core: high net worth and high income households. Much of that foundation was laid by his predecessor and arguably all that John has done is maintain a base that grew organically as global income has risen. Over a billion middle/high income individuals have joined the world economy as Apple users but that is hardly attributable to Ternus. His engineering acumen did not give him the insight into marketing to low income countries where most of the users are shunning Apple products.
    • John has had to navigate a challenging geopolitical situation with the rise of India as the world power and the decline of China. Critics pointed out that Apple's dependence on India is an Achilles' heel and that his transition of production and market growth from China to India has been rough and challenges remain with regulation and labor unrest. The Indian middle class has been the growth engine for a decade but, as all eyes are on Africa and South America, Apple has been on its back foot.
    • Apple grew the AI business but now depends too much on in. Growth since 2038 has slowed from mid teens to low teens and analysts are pointing out that Apple is too dependent on Services as its biggest source of revenue. Apple's P/E ratio is now below the average of the Fab Five reflecting investor skepticism that it can capitalize on submersible data centers in international waters. Its insistence on local sovereignty for data storage goes against the bathospheric consensus.
    • Competition has been kept at bay, so far. Apple has seen off challenges by Anthropic, Netflix and SpaceX but there are hundreds of startups looking to build the next Services killer. Billions of satisfied customers are not the moat they used to be.

    Apple has made it this far, recently celebrating its 65 anniversary but there is no guarantee that it can continue its run as the world's most valuable company. The next CEO has to steer the ship Ternus just managed to helm through stormy seas.

  7. Asymco Bulletin 009 - Apr 19, 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Apr 19, 2026.

    Research

    Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026

    Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026

    Revenues and growth rates for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, plus Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Expense, Other Income and Expense, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a comparison to CFO guidance.

    Ref. conference call's guidance, Kevan Parekh, Apple CFO: As we move ahead into March, I would like to review our outlook, […]. We expect our March total company revenue to grow by 13% to 16% year over year, which comprehends our best estimates of constrained iPhone supply during the quarter. We expect services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate similar to what we reported in December. We expect →

    The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds

    The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds

    In a recent interview Apple management was asked about AI, which is perceived as an area where Apple has been struggling. Greg Joswiak replied: We’ve been doing things with intelligence for many years, right? And gen AI allows us an opportunity to do that even more. So I’m excited about that, but boy, this is not a sprint. This is a marathon.

    In contrast to AI, Spatial Computing is being largely ignored. It is however making significant leaps in utilization, especially in verticals. →


    Nota Bene

    Monday Notes: Neo still sinking in

    Monday Notes: Neo still sinking in →

    Apple's potential to double its Mac user base through strategic budget expansion and memory supply tactics presents a promising growth trajectory.

    260 million Mac users? Huge room for growth.

    Two analysts, two stories. The Neo will move the needle and the supply crunch will hamper competition…

    Nevertheless, a doubling of the Mac user base is certainly a worthy and achievable goal over the next decade. →

    Apple Studio Display XDR Now Cleared for Diagnostic Radiology

    Apple Studio Display XDR Now Cleared for Diagnostic Radiology →

    At just $3,000, the Studio Display XDR democratizes medical imaging, undercutting specialized monitors by up to 90% and revolutionizing healthcare accessibility.

    The ‌Studio Display‌ XDR is priced at $2,899 with a VESA mount, and it is more affordable than many specialized medical imaging monitors.

    It allows a new set of people to do what previously required only specialists to do and allows specialists to do more than they used to do. →

    Antelope standing beside a wooden desk with a vintage Macintosh computer

    All of a sudden, everyone is doomed except Apple →

    Despite optimistic predictions for Mac growth, persistent skepticism argues Apple faces inevitable doom due to supply issues and product flaws.

    As honored as I am to be the recipient of an antlers tip, I must respectfully disagree…

    The only thing you could be sure of is that Apple is doomed. →

    Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet

    Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet →

    Bertrand Serlet, a pivotal yet understated architect behind Apple's OS X, exemplifies the profound impact of tech's quiet innovators.

    Pay attention to the quiet ones

    This is one in a series on Apple’s quieter heroes.…

    That this interview only has 6000 views after three years shows how much untold history exists. →

    Bank of America raises Apple price target to $325 from $320 →

    BofA slightly ups Apple's price target to $325, forecasting $113B revenue and $2.00 EPS for Q2, driven by strong iPhone sales and Services growth, slightly above my estimates of $110B and $2.00.

    Q2 forecast update

    My own estimates for Q2 revenues and EPS are $110B…

    More to follow as we get closer to the earnings release date but this is a good preview. →

    Omdia releases first estimate for Q1 PC unit shipments →

    Apple's Mac shipments grew 5.4% to capture 11% market share in Q1 2026, driven by MacBook Air and Neo sales, with revenue estimates slightly differing from unit projections.

    Apple growing at double market rate.

    Omidia estimates that Apple reached a market shar…

    …e of 11% with shipments growing 5.4% due to solid MacBook Air sales performance and the initial sell-in of the MacBook Neo.. This means 5.4% growth for Apple y/y. As I noted in my Office Hour yesterday, I adjusted my Mac growth from 0% to 6% based on the new products launched. This is an estimate of revenues not units but it might be pretty close. Omidia estimates 7,112 million units whereas I’m a little above 6 million. We seem to disagree on ASP. →

    Apple and Amazon Partner on Satellite Deal

    Apple and Amazon Partner on Satellite Deal →

    Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar boosts its satellite internet ambitions and strengthens ties with Apple, while highlighting the limited reach of space-based networks compared to terrestrial ones.

    I assume Apple has wanted to steer clear of Starlink but it’s not clear that was a primary consideration in choosing Globalstar.

    Starlink, considered the dominant player, serves about 11 million users. I would note that 11 million is 0.1% of the number of cellular subscriptions worldwide. →

    iPhone vs Android Switching Rates →

    iPhone users boast nearly quadruple the loyalty of Android counterparts, with actual annual switching rates favoring Apple slightly, despite inflated survey intentions.

    I did a deep dive into the data and came up with graph above. The original report shows intention numbers which seem quite high. For instance, the net switching rate between iOS and Android is 10% in favor of Apple. This would imply that the entire user base would flip in 10 years. It would also imply…

    I think actual net churn is 1.7% of the base each year. That’s still 100 million a year. For now it seems Apple is happy to maintain that rate. →


    Office Hours

    Asymco One Office Hours Live Q&A with Horace Dediu & Gene Munster: April 8, 2026

    Asymco One Office Hours Live Q&A with Horace Dediu & Gene Munster: April 8, 2026 →

    Asymco Office Hours, April 8, 2026

    Hosts: Horace Dediu and Gene Munster

    This episode of Asymco Office Hours covers a wide range of topics related to Apple, including geopolitical risks, financial performance, AI developments, and business strategy. The discussion is led by Horace Dediu and Gene Munster, with insights from industry experts.


    Podcast

    Asymetric Podcast: Waterloo

    Asymetric Podcast: Waterloo →

    In this Asymmetric Podcast episode, Horace muses on buying flowers, highlights Apple's distinguishing product, and teases his new research. →


    Asymco One gives you full access to our research, analysis, and commentary. Subscribe with code BULLETIN for a discount.

    Feedback: Have questions or comments? Reach out to us at contact@asymco.com. We’d love to hear from you.

  8. iPhone vs Android Switching Rates

    Nota Bene · 3 comments

    Bitchin' ain't Switching

    SellCell’s Smartphone Loyalty Survey 2026 shows iPhone and Android loyalty at record highs, but Android users still switch more.

    Key findings

    iPhone loyalty stands at 96.4%, up from 91.9% in 2021

    iPhone switching stands at 3.6%

    Android loyalty stands at 86.4%, with switching at 13.6%

    Android users are nearly four times more likely to switch than iPhone users

    Samsung loyalty stands at 90.1%, up from 74% in 2021

    Samsung switching stands at 9.9%

    Google loyalty stands at 86.8%, up from 65.2% in 2021

    Google switching stands at 13.2%

    The loyalty gap between iPhone and Android now stands at 10 percentage points

    Price and value are the biggest drivers of switching

    Technology is the second biggest driver

    Overall, loyalty has increased across all major brands since 2021

    Source: SellCell.com Blog

    NB: I did a deep dive into the data and came up with graph above. The original report shows intention numbers which seem quite high. For instance, the net switching rate between iOS and Android is 10% in favor of Apple. This would imply that the entire user base would flip in 10 years. It would also imply...

    As time goes on and saturation is reached (near 5 billion active smartphones) then the churn will imply that Android will eventually become a net user loser.

    That probably won't happen before 2030. When saturation does happen however, I will be watching to see if Apple chooses a different strategy to accelerate switching similar to what it is doing with the MacBook Neo at a time of PC market saturation.

    The lesson here is that switching intention surveys showing a net 10% churn rate don't mean that the actual switching rate is net 10%. The intention to switch is a sentiment but actual switching is often more difficult than a wish to do so.

    I think actual net churn is 1.7% of the base each year. That's still 100 million a year. For now it seems Apple is happy to maintain that rate.

  9. Morgan Stanley has a stark message for investors in Apple

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    Run for the hills

    Morgan Stanley just published survey data that makes a strong case for owning Apple stock. The firm's AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey was released March 22. It shows iPhone upgrade intentions hitting an all-time survey high.

    The data support the bank's above-consensus iPhone forecast. Morgan Stanley keeps its overweight rating and $315 price target unchanged. The stock closed at $247.99 on March 20. That target implies roughly 27% upside from that level.

    The headline number is a blended global iPhone upgrade rate of 37%, up 2 percentage points year over year. That is the highest reading in the survey's history. The driver is China, where upgrade intentions surged 9 points year over year to reach their own all-time high in the survey.

    On the switching side, Apple's net switching rate improved to 11%. That is a five-year high. Apple was the only major smartphone brand in the survey with a positive and improving net switching rate.

    Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei, and others were all negative. That positions Apple to gain market share in 2026 even as the overall smartphone market faces pressure.

    Together, these data points support Morgan Stanley's FY26 iPhone shipment forecast of approximately 260 million units, which sits 3% above Street consensus.

    The most surprising result in the survey may be the level of interest in a foldable iPhone. Morgan Stanley found that 27% of global iPhone owners are “extremely interested” in paying for one. In China, that figure rises to nearly 40%.

    Morgan Stanley expects Apple to more than double the global foldable smartphone market within 18 months of launch. The base case puts foldable iPhone revenue at approximately $40 billion. The bull case reaches $60 billion.

    The foldable iPhone is expected to launch in fall 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. If the survey data translates to actual purchases, the FY27 revenue impact would be significant. Morgan Stanley's FY27 iPhone revenue estimate is already 14% above Street consensus. The foldable is a big reason why.

    Apple Intelligence ranked seventh globally as a reason to upgrade to an iPhone.

    Willingness to pay for Apple Intelligence fell. Respondents said they would pay approximately $8 per month for an unlimited subscription, down from roughly $9 per month in the prior year's survey.

    Morgan Stanley flagged this as a risk worth watching. AI features remain important to smartphone buyers broadly. But Apple appears to be lagging Android competitors in consumer perception of its AI capabilities.

    Morgan Stanley laid out the key variables investors should watch this year:

    iPhone upgrade cycle. Record upgrade intentions suggest the aged iPhone installed base is beginning to refresh. Replacement cycles are expected to contract by 0.2 years in 2026, which supports shipment volumes.

    Foldable launch execution. The survey demand signal is encouraging, but first-generation foldable adoption is inherently uncertain. The revenue upside is large if execution is strong.

    Memory cost impact. Unprecedented memory price inflation is expected to push global smartphone prices higher. Morgan Stanley sees this as a bigger headwind for Android competitors than for Apple, given Apple's pricing power. But the June quarter gross margin guidance will be the first real read on how Apple is managing the cost pressure.

    Apple Intelligence revamp. The 2026 Siri upgrade needs to meaningfully improve consumer perception. The current trajectory is moving in the wrong direction.

    Morgan Stanley's $315 price target is based on 8.5x EV/Sales on FY27 estimates. That implies approximately 32x FY27 EPS of $9.74. Its revenue forecast sits well above the Street even as its EPS estimate is broadly in line with consensus.

    The survey does not guarantee an upgrade supercycle. But the data points in that direction. An aged installed base, record upgrade intentions, strong switching dynamics, and a new form factor in the back half of the year make for a compelling setup.

    Morgan Stanley thinks the market is not fully pricing that in yet.

    Source: TheStreet

    NB: the byline: Morgan Stanley just changed the Apple conversation …

  10. We know that Macs last longer in use. How much longer?

    Nota Bene · 1 comment

    What did I just say?

    A new analysis of computers used in the enterprise finds that Macs and iPhones last much longer and have far fewer problems.

    Macs in enterprise settings typically last for five years, besting the three-year lifespan for Windows PCs, according to a company that makes software to help businesses manage their computers.

    But the really shocking revelation from the report is that more than half of Windows PCs used in big business get replaced within a year.

    While factors like software compatibility, IT familiarity and customization options also play a role, upfront hardware cost remains the biggest driver for most organizations.

    By comparison, Macs are often seen as premium products, which can make them harder to justify at scale (although the recently released $599 MacBook Neo is changing that equation).

    Companies making these sorts of computer buying decisions should pay attention to a new report from Omnissa.

    “Compared to Windows, 6.5x more Macs are seen in service into year 6, and 3.3x more Macs are seen in service into year 3+,” noted Omnissa’s report.

    “Only 17% of macOS devices were replaced within one year, compared to 54% of Windows devices, reducing disruption tied to frequent hardware replacement,” said the analysis.

    Macs are far less likely to crash. The benefits of using Apple computers don’t stop at longevity, though. Employees using Macs also run into far fewer bugs.

    “The telemetry reveals that Windows devices exhibit 3.1x more total forced shutdowns (including system crashes and unexpected restarts) than macOS devices,” said Omnissa. “Windows devices experience 2.2x more app crashes and a staggering 7.5x more app hangs (unresponsive software states) than Macs.”

    “A forced shutdown is much more than an IT support ticket — it’s a disruption to an employee’s work that translates directly into lost work hours,” said Omnissa.

    Apple’s lifespan advantage extends to iPhones as well. When compared to Android handsets, “the data suggests that iOS devices display longer service life, with twice as many devices in service into year 6,” said Omnissa.

    “iOS is updated 8.1 times faster than Android,” said Omnissa. “macOS is updated 1.5 times faster than Windows.”

    The long-term cost benefits of using macOS or iOS in the enterprise are starting to overcome companies’ habit of making buying decisions based on short-term savings.

    Source: Cult of Mac

    NB: “Penny wise but pound foolish…

  11. Asymco Bulletin 006 - Mar 28, 2026

    Bulletin

    Asymco Bulletin is a digest of all the work we have published for the week ending Mar 28, 2026.

    Research

    The Next 50

    In Apple’s first 50 years it shipped 5.13 billion computers. This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 50 years. There actually are no other PC makers that are 50 years old. But all these things were true also 40 years ago. So what are we celebrating now that we did not celebrate at Apple 40? The answer is Services, the consistency in growth in user base and the potential trajectory of growth to never-before imagine audiences. The biggest change is a change of horizons. →

    People don’t like wearing things on their faces and don’t trust those who do

    Says Neal Stephenson who first coined the term “metaverse” This revelation came soon after Meta canceled the Metaverse. Let’s look into Neal Stephenson’s mea culpa:

    When I was working at Magic Leap, and people asked me why I thought that [Metaverse] was a good idea, I would ask the rhetorical question: “do you really think that twenty years from now everyone is still going to be going around all day staring at little rectangles in their hands?” →

    The Biggest Bundle?

    The Biggest Bundle?

    How everyone is wrong about AI. The newspaper was an unexpected development It was not a product that anyone asked for. Like many innovations, it wasn’t an invention. It was not patented or discovered in a laboratory. It emerged as a result of the convergence of three disparate technologies: continuous roll printing presses, the telegraph, and the railroad. This convergence occurred by the 1830s, facilitated by a business model aptly named “the penny press”. Stepping back, the printing press was initially developed in the 1450s, 40 years before Columbus’ voyage. It went through numerous evolutions. The big change was moving →


    Nota Bene

    Apple, Samsung Dominate 2025 List of Highest-shipping Models Across Regions → In 2025, Apple dominated premium smartphone markets across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, while Samsung excelled in entry- to mid-tier segments in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa. →

    Tim Cook: Apple just had best launch week ever for first-time Mac customers → Neo brought Apple its strongest launch week performance, presumably by attracting first-time Mac buyers, and helping customers transition out of netbooks and Windows laptops. →

    Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook

    Running a data-center AI model on a MacBook → Apple's MacBook Pro, with its unique Apple silicon architecture, could revolutionize personal AI by enabling powerful AI models to run locally without relying on cloud data centers, potentially shifting the competitive landscape in Apple's favor despite current perceptions of lagging behind in AI advancements. →

    Apple’s China smartphone sales jump 23% as overall market fell 4% to start 2026 → Apple defied market trends with a striking 23% iPhone sales surge in China, outpacing competitors despite broader smartphone shipment declines. →

    “There’s So Much Left” in iPhone: Tim Cook

    “There’s So Much Left” in iPhone: Tim Cook → Apple's relentless focus on user-centric innovation, epitomized by the ever-ascendant iPhone, underscores its enduring dominance and untapped market potential. →

    Amazon developing a new phone more than a decade after its first → Amazon's renewed attempt at a smartphone, "Transformer," aims to integrate AI and deepen Prime ecosystem ties, learning from past Fire failures by addressing trust, scale, and developer engagement challenges. →

    Mac fastest growing PC brand in India in Q4 2025 → In 2025, India's PC market soared to a record 15.9 million units, with Mac sales impressively up 24% year over year, hinting at a bright future despite looming 2026 challenges. →

    Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come

    Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come → "Waddle transforms visionOS into a portal of immersive exploration, where experiencing surpasses explaining." →

    How to read the MacBook Neo as bad news for the stock → "Apple's Neo success is misleadingly painted as a margin threat, ignoring cost efficiencies and manufacturing leverage." →

    Apple TV is a categorization failure

    Apple TV is a categorization failure → Apple TV, launched in 2007, struggled for 19 years as a misunderstood, underappreciated gateway to content, overshadowed by Apple's product-centric reputation. →

    Apple’s Custom Silicon Opens up Potential for a Cellular MacBook → "Apple's C1X modem not only matches Qualcomm's performance but also reshapes the economic landscape for always-connected MacBooks, hinting at a future where seamless cellular integration redefines portable computing." →

    Apple turns component crisis into competitive advantage → Apple leverages the memory crisis to aggressively capture market share from struggling Android, PC, and Chromebook competitors. →

    Survey shows record upgrade interest for iPhones → Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple as the sole major smartphone vendor to gain market share in 2026, driven by strong upgrade intent and advanced features, while Android struggles with rising costs and declining loyalty. →

    MacBook Neo Market Impact: Analysts weigh in

    MacBook Neo Market Impact: Analysts weigh in → Market analysts predict the MacBook Neo will disrupt the low-end PC market, especially in education, by leveraging Apple's higher margins and user-centric design, despite challenges from price-sensitive K-12 sectors dominated by Chromebooks. →


    World’s most respected Apple Analyst. —Macfilos

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